《供應鏈不匹配成本》ppt課件-文庫吧
2025-10-05 17:20 本頁面
【正文】 (Slide ??， formula ? ?? ?E x p e c t e d p r o f i t P r i c e C o s t E x p e c t e d s a l e sC o s t S a l v a g e v a l u e E x p e c t e d l e f t o v e r i n v e n t o r y????????1mm????Ex pe c ted s al es Ex pe c ted s al esEx pe c ted fi l l r ate Ex pe c ted de m an dEx pe c ted l os t s al esInstock probability = F(Q) = Φ(z) Stockout probability = 1 – F(Q) =1 – Instock probability Slide ??， The Newsvendor Model: The target instock probability and the target fillrate objectives for choosing Q instock probability：缺貨情況，對雜貨店較重要 fillrate：多少顧客滿足的情況，對目錄零售商較重要 Slide ??， Choose Q subject to a minimum instock probability ? Suppose we wish to find the order quantity for the Hammer 3/2 that minimizes left over inventory while generating at least a 99% instock probability. ? Step 1: ? Find the zstatistic that yields the target instock probability. ? In the Standard Normal Distribution Function Table we find F() = and F() = . ? Choose z = to satisfy our instock probability constraint. ? Step 2: ? Convert the zstatistic into an order quantity for the actual demand distribution. ? Q = m + z x ? = 3192 + x 1181 = 5944 Slide ??， Choose Q subject to a minimum fill rate constraint ? Suppose we wish to find the order quantity for the Hammer 3/2 that minimizes left over inventory while generating at least a 99% fill rate. ? Step 1: ? Find the lost sales with a standard normal distribution that yields the target fill rate. ? Step 2: ? Find the zstatistic that yields the lost sales found in step 1. ? From the Standard Normal Loss Function Table, L()= and L() = ? Choose the higher zstatistic, z = ? Step 3: ? Convert the zstatistic into an order quantity for the actual demand distribution. ? Q = m + z x ? = 3192 + x 1181 = 5011 ? ? ? ? 0 2 7 1 8 13 1 9 2 ???????????????? r a te F i l l1L ( z ) ?mSlide ??， 討論 ? 不足成本大時（毛利高），訂購量大于期望需求（關鍵比例大于 ）；反之相反。 ? 剩余成本可能是可見成本，而銷售損失是機會成本，在報表中看不到。 ? 剩余成本可能是積壓的庫存，如未及時清理，造成虛假利潤 ? 除了利潤最大化目標外，很多情況下會選服務水平目標，因為要考慮長期效應。 Slide ??， Assembletoorder, maketoorder and Quick Response with reactive capacity 按訂單裝配、按訂單生產(chǎn)和以反應性能力快速響應 Slide ??， The demandsupply mismatch cost ? Definition – the demand supply mismatch cost includes the cost of left over inventory (the ―too much‖ cost) plus the opportunity cost of lost sales (the ―too little‖ cost): ? The maximum profit is the profit without any mismatch costs, ., every unit is sold and there are no lost sales: ? The mismatch cost can also be evaluated with ? ?? ? s al e sl os t E x pe c t e dCi nv e nt or y ov e r l e f t E x pe c t e dC c os t M i s m at c huo????? ? m??? cpp r o f i t M a x i m u mMismatch cost = Maximum profit – Expected profit Slide ??， When is the mismatch cost high? ? Mismatch cost as a percent of the maximum profit where f(z)
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