【正文】 cotton on the world market. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans, the price of which has long been stable, and to begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their ine significantly at least over the next several years.Which of the following, if true, most calls into question the reasoning on which the plan is based?A. The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb.B. Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infected cotton crops.C. In the past several years there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.D. Many consumers consider cotton cloth a necessity rather than a luxury and would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they currently pay.E. The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.1. 由問題問法得知，此題是評估類的題目。2. 找到前提和結(jié)論：結(jié)論句是：Many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to begin raising cotton3. 判斷推理模式：首先排除類比和統(tǒng)計(jì)枚舉，由于原文中涉及了方案，所以考慮一下是否是方案推理。但是發(fā)現(xiàn)，“方案”（to begin raising cotton）在原文中被論證過。即原文選取這個方案是有理由的。所以可以判斷該推理模式為因果推理。前提（因）是：“害蟲入侵導(dǎo)致棉花的價(jià)格比較高，且棉花成熟的周期的比較快”結(jié)論（果）是：“許多大豆種植者為了增加收入而決定去種棉花”4. 找到答案方向：因果模式推理有兩個CQ：CQ1：因果概括問題。CQ2：干擾因素問題。因果類型的題目，答案選項(xiàng)必須說出一個因的可導(dǎo)致結(jié)論可信度的變化的特點(diǎn)或者是直接涉及到因果之間的聯(lián)系。選項(xiàng)分析：A． 種植大豆的成本在最近幾年顯著上升而且預(yù)期會繼續(xù)上漲。該選項(xiàng)涉及的是“大豆”的一個特點(diǎn)，只涉及了“果”中一個事物的特點(diǎn)。B． Correct. 對新發(fā)明的，便宜的殺蟲劑的測試表明這種殺蟲劑可以在不對環(huán)境造成傷害前提下有效的殺掉棉花害蟲。是一個“因”的特點(diǎn)，該選項(xiàng)可以令“因”中“害蟲入侵導(dǎo)致棉花的價(jià)格比較高”這個特點(diǎn)消失，從而影響結(jié)論的可信度。屬于CQ2：干擾因素問題。C． 在過去的幾年中，對于棉花和棉制品的需求并沒有顯著的上升。該選項(xiàng)涉及“因”中棉花價(jià)格的特點(diǎn)。但從原文中我們可以看出，因?yàn)槊藁ǔ杀緝r(jià)格上漲，無論需求是否增加，都會增加棉花種植者的收入，所以該選項(xiàng)不會影響結(jié)論的可信度。D． 許多顧客認(rèn)為棉制衣物是必需品而非奢侈品且愿意花更高比現(xiàn)在更高的價(jià)格來買棉衣。該選項(xiàng)和C項(xiàng)比較相似。棉花的價(jià)格已經(jīng)由于蟲害而變高。無論顧客愿不愿意花更多錢買，變化的僅僅是令價(jià)格是否會更高。只要高了，就可以令原文的結(jié)論成立，所以該選項(xiàng)并不能影響結(jié)論的可信度。E． 影響棉花的害蟲到目前為止從來不會攻擊大豆植物。該選項(xiàng)顯然不涉及“因”的特點(diǎn)。71. In order to improve the longterm savings rate of its citizens, Levaska’s government has decided to introduce special savings accounts. Citizens can save up to $3,000 a year in special accounts without having to pay tax on the interest, unless they withdraw money from the account before they reach the age of sixtyfive. If they do withdraw any money before that age, they have to pay tax on the accumulated interest and a penalty.Which of the following, if true, most seriously threatens the success of the government’s plan?A. The banks and financial institutions where the special accounts will be held lobbied hard for their introduction.B. Nearly all workers in Levaska can already save money in taxfree accounts through their workplace.C. For the past ten years, Levaskans have been depositing an ever smaller percentage of their ine in longterm savings.D. Many Levaskans continue to work beyond the age of sixtyfive.E. In certain circumstances, such as a serious illness, the government plans to waive the penalty on early withdrawals from the special accounts.1. 由問題問法得知，此題是評估類的題目。2. 找到前提和結(jié)論：結(jié)論句是：Levaska’s government has decided to introduce special savings accounts.3. 判斷推理模式：首先排除類比和統(tǒng)計(jì)枚舉，由于原文中涉及了方案，所以考慮一下是否是方案推理。但是發(fā)現(xiàn)，“方案”（to introduce special savings accounts）在原文中被論證過。即原文中認(rèn)為這個方案可以刺激存款是有原因的。所以該題目為因果模式推理。前提（因）是：“特殊賬戶可以讓公民存的長期存款在一定額度上免稅，若提前支取，需要支付稅費(fèi)和罰款”結(jié)論（果）是：“為了增加公民的長期存款率，政府決定引入特殊儲蓄賬戶”4. 找到答案方向：因果模式推理有兩個CQ：CQ1：因果概括問題。CQ2：干擾因素問題。因果類型的題目，答案選項(xiàng)必須說出一個因的可導(dǎo)致結(jié)論可信度的變化的特點(diǎn)或者是直接涉及到因果之間的聯(lián)系。選項(xiàng)分析：A. 特殊賬戶所在的銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)努力地勸服大家應(yīng)用該賬戶。該選項(xiàng)并非“因”的特點(diǎn)，無論銀行們努力推廣與否，公眾都會可以因不收稅而增加長期存款，故而不會影響結(jié)論的可信度。 B. Correct. 幾乎所有Levaska的工作者都可以在他們工作的地方將錢存在免稅的賬戶中。該選項(xiàng)涉及“因”的特點(diǎn)，可以令“因”中的刺激因素失效，從而影響結(jié)論的可信度。屬于CQ2：干擾因素問題。C. 在過去的10年中，Levaska人把更少比例的收入存儲在長期賬戶上。該選項(xiàng)顯然并非“因”的特點(diǎn)，不會影響結(jié)論的可信度。D. 許多人在六十五歲后仍然工作。該選項(xiàng)顯然不涉及“因”的特點(diǎn)。E. 在某些特殊的情形下，比如疾病，政府打算取消掉因提早支取而帶來的罰款。該選項(xiàng)涉及“因”中的一定懲罰措施的減少。但是并不能影響結(jié)論的可信度。即無論是不是所有人都罰款，只要能免稅，就可以增加公民的長期存款率。72. A study followed a group of teenagers who had never smoked and tracked whether they took up smoking and how their mental health changed. After one year, the incidence of depression among those who had taken up smoking was four times as high as it was among those who had not. Since nicotine in cigarettes changes brain chemistry, perhaps thereby affecting mood, it is likely that smoking contributes to depression in teenagers.Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?A. Participants who were depressed at the start of the study were no more likely to be smokers after one year than those who were not depressed.B. The study did not distinguish between participants who smoked only occasionally and those who were heavy smokers.C. Few, if any, of the participants in the study were friends or relatives of other participants.D. Some participants entered and emerged from a period of depression within the year of the study.E. The researchers did not track use of alcohol by the teenagers.1. 由問題問法得知，此題是評估類的題目。2. 找到前提和結(jié)論：結(jié)論句是：It is likely that smoking contributes to depression in teenagers.3. 判斷推理模式：原文中雖然涉及了兩個部分被調(diào)查者之間的比較，但是最后的結(jié)論是基于兩者不同而做出的。所以可以排除類比推理和統(tǒng)計(jì)枚舉推理。直接觀察到原文前提說了一個時間巧合的事情，不抽煙的人換抑郁癥的可能性比抽煙的人低，而結(jié)論將這兩者建立了因果關(guān)系。故而符合相關(guān)因果的推理模式。前提中的變化關(guān)系是：“吸煙者多 抑郁癥多”結(jié)論中的因果關(guān)系是： “吸煙（因）導(dǎo)致抑郁（果）”4. 找到答案方向：相關(guān)因果模式推理有四個CQ：CQ1：相關(guān)性不存在問題CQ2：獨(dú)立第三因素問題CQ3：中間因素問題CQ4：因果方向問題注意到除掉CQ2以外，剩余所有的CQ都要涉及因和果，而CQ2可以僅僅涉及果。故而該種推理模式的答案必須同時涉及因果，或者可以提出另外一個產(chǎn)生果的原因。剩下的情況，都可以排除。選項(xiàng)分析：A. 。這個選項(xiàng)在質(zhì)疑“抑郁會不會導(dǎo)致吸煙”，涉及因和果，且是明顯的因果方向問題。屬于CQ4：因果方向問題B. 實(shí)驗(yàn)并沒有區(qū)分偶爾抽煙和長期抽煙的人。僅僅涉及“因”，不是答案。C. 很少的實(shí)驗(yàn)參與者和其他的實(shí)驗(yàn)參與者是朋友或者親屬。不涉及“因”，也不涉及“果”，無法成為答案。D. 在實(shí)驗(yàn)的一年中，有些參與者產(chǎn)生了一個短時期的抑郁。涉及了“果”，但說的不是能產(chǎn)生果的原因，不能成為答案。E. 調(diào)查者并沒有監(jiān)測實(shí)驗(yàn)參與者的使用酒精情況。試圖形成一個“獨(dú)立第三因素”，但是沒有證據(jù)表明酒精一定會導(dǎo)致抑郁，所以不能給 “果”（抑郁癥比較多）提出一個另外一個因。73. 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