【正文】 role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated. It is widely expected that the depreciation of ASEAN5 exchange rates with respect to Japanese yen would improve these economies’ trade balances with Japan during the sample period of study. In reality, the trade balances of these economies generally deteriorate from 1986 to 1995 (with the exception of Indonesia in which the trend is less clear), before the improvement in trade balances is actually observed. One important implication from these results is that devaluationbased adjustment policies may not achieve the desired effects of nominal exchange rate changes (devaluation) on the balance of trade. In other words, exchange rate cannot be used solely in managing the external balances of these ASEAN countries. An alternative explanation to the observed behaviour of ASEAN5 trade 6 balances in the selected sample period has been postulated. We have shown mathematically that trade balance is affected by real money, rather than the nominal exchange rate. Thus, we propose that trade balance of a country will improve if its real money is less than that of Japan in value. The economic logic of this hypothesis is that whenever the real money of a domestic country is less than the real money of Japan, domestic currency will end up with a relatively lower purchasing power as pare to Japan’s currency. As such, domestic goods and services would seem cheaper in the eyes of Japanese, thereby increasing their tendency to import more goods and services from domestic country. On the other hand, domestic citizens will buy less goods and services from Japan, which are deemed more expensive. The end result of lower purchasing power of domestic currency is improvement of domestic trade balance with respect Japan. By the same token, a domestic country’s trade balance will deteriorate if its real money is more than that of yen’s real value. Our empirical data analysis suggests that the real money effect proposition could consistently explain the observed trade balances in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines during the period of study, with respect to Japan. Thus, in order to cope with trade deficits, the governments of these ASEAN countries might resort to policy measures focusing on the variable of real money, which is the ratio of nominal money to aggregate price level. On the other hand, for devaluationbased adjustment policies (effected through nominal exchange rate) to achieve the desired effects on trade balance, it must be supplemented by stabilization policies to ensure domestic price stability (Singh, 2020). Once again, it is important to stress that exchange rate cannot be used solely in managing the external balances of these ASEAN countries. 7 譯 文： 匯率和貿(mào)易平衡 的 關(guān)系 :東盟國家的經(jīng)驗 摘 要 本 文主要研究 匯率變 動 是否直接影響貿(mào)易收支情況。通 過對 1986 年到 1999年為采樣周期 的 東盟 5 國 和日本 的 貿(mào)易差額 的調(diào)查， 該研究發(fā)現(xiàn) ，匯率 變化這一角色 在 引發(fā)貿(mào)易平衡的變化 時 的作用 被夸大了。 同時，對 東盟 5 國 貿(mào)易 的 采樣周期 的 選擇 的 另一解釋 也 已被假定。我們 特意 提出 了 貿(mào)易平衡是受 實際有效匯率的影響 而 不是 名義匯率。 并以 一個 數(shù)學(xué)框架 ，為 支持 我們的建議提供理論背景。我們的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)分析表明 ，實際有效匯率的 一貫主張可以解釋在留學(xué)期間觀察到 的馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國、菲律賓 與 日本 的 貿(mào)易平衡 。 因此 ， 為了應(yīng)對貿(mào)易赤字 ，這些東盟國家政府可能采取的政策措施集中于實際貨幣帶來的 變 化 。 關(guān)鍵詞 : 匯率 ， 貿(mào)易平衡 ，實際有效匯率， 購買力平價 ， 東盟 5 國 經(jīng)濟 一、 介紹 匯率是開放經(jīng)濟中重要的價格之一，它影響 著很多的 商業(yè)，投資和政策決定。因此，在過去的幾十年 ， 匯率的研究一直是經(jīng)濟研究的最重要領(lǐng)域之一 ， 這并不奇怪 。 這個研究機構(gòu)已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了巨大 成長 ，特別是在 1973 年成立浮動匯率制度以來，極不穩(wěn)定 的 布雷頓森林體系時代 之 后 。 其中 已經(jīng)引起了研究人員關(guān)注的領(lǐng)域之一是 匯率變動與貿(mào)易 平衡 的 關(guān)系 。（ Krueger， 1983）對 于 貿(mào)易平衡的彈性模型顯示了匯率和貿(mào)易平衡 之間 存在的理論關(guān)系 。而 匯率對貿(mào)易平衡的影響已進行了各項研究， 為有效的匯率 政策 的 制定者 提供有價值的信息 ，如 基于 調(diào)整的 匯率 貶值政策（通過名義匯率 的 影響）的效力，以平衡一個國家的外貿(mào)（ 見例： Greenwood, 1984。 Himarios, 1989。 Rose and Yellen, 1989。 BahmaniOskooee, 1991。Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993。 Arize, 1994。 Buluswar et al., 1996。 Rahman and Mustafa,1996。 Rahman et al., 1997。 Wei, 1999。 Baharumshah, 2020。 BahmaniOskooee, 2020。 Lal and Lowinger, 2020。 Singh, 2020)。 在理論上，名義匯率貶值（升值）是假定實際匯率的變化（見，例如， Himarios， 1989。 BahmaniOskooee， 202