【正文】 e vehicle can enhance the drivers capabilities and fort they can also create potential distractions that transform even the best driver into a road hazard The National Public Services Research Institute for example found that individuals with cellular phones in their cars had a 34percent higher chance of having a collision ITS research has already shown the benefits and feasibility of many of the technologies that will be contained within intelligent vehicles Route guidance systems will help drivers better navigate unfamiliar streets or find the quickest route to their destinations In the TravTek field test in Orlando sponsored by DOT in 1992 and 1993 tourists driving vehicles equipped with route guidance systems made 30 percent fewer wrong turns and shortened their travel times by 20 percent pared to drivers who used paper maps Collisionavoidance systems will expand the paradigm of traffic safety from protecting the occupant of the vehicle to preventing accidents altogether According to one study 60 percent of crashes at intersections and about 30 percent of headon collisions could be avoided if drivers had an additional halfsecond to react Nearly 75 percent of vehicular crashes are caused by inattentive drivers NHTSA estimates that three types of collisionavoidance systems could prevent 11 million accidents in the United States each year 17 percent of all traffic accidents These same systems would save 17500 lives pared to the 10500 lives saved by seatbelts and airbags and 26 billion in accidentrelated costs Other safety innovations that are now in testing include automatic collision notification systems which will immediately signal for help if a vehicles air bag deploys and drowsydriver warning systems that will keep drivers from falling asleep at the wheel Invehicle automation systems will temporarily take over driving during emergencies or allow autopiloting for prolonged durations In 1996 NHTSA began field testing intelligent cruisecontrol systems which will automatically adjust a vehicles cruising speed to maintain a safe distance from vehicles ahead to evaluate the safety impact of this technology In a more dramatic step towards handsoff feetoff driving the National Automated Highway Systems Consortium NAHSC which is a partnership of DOT and nine other public and private anizations demonstrated automated vehicle prototypes on a 12kilometer test section of I15 in San Diego this past summer In the future automated highway systems will allow traffic managers to double or even triple the effective capacity of highways by increasing speeds and shortening distances between vehicles Automated highways could also potentially improve highway safety by eliminating accidents caused by human error Aside from delivering safety and efficiency benefits for the traveling public the federal government expects that indigenous development of intelligent vehicles could promote Americas economic petitiveness For intelligent vehicles to reach their imum potential they must be able to municate with an intelligent transportation infrastructure and with other intelligent vehicles For example munication with a smart infrastructure would allow an intelligent vehicle to learn of incidents and then proactively suggest alternative routes in real time Smart vehicles could also act as probes that could send information about travel conditions back to the infrastructure to create a richer base of knowledge about travel conditions on roads and highways In addition fully automated vehicles will likely rely to some extent on the guidance provided by an intelligent infrastructure and on munication with other smart vehicles For example in the recent AHS demonstration in San Diego automated vehicles with magic sensors under their bumpers were guided by mags implanted at 12 meter intervals just below the road surface Over the next five to 10 years we should see the first generation with advances in the capabilities of individual driver information and warning systems These systems will bee increasingly integrated with information coordinated through displays Drivers will still maintain full control over their vehicles although collisionwarning systems will provide limited automated assistance In addition vehicles would have a greater intelligence about road conditions in real time due to rudimentary munications with an intelligent infrastructure In about 10 to 15 years the application of improvements in individual ITS systems will bring on a second generation with more and better intelligence in the vehicle Although drivers will still maintain full control over their vehicles collisionavoidance systems could take control temporarily during emergencies In addition more sophisticated voice recognition systems will be incorporated within the drivervehicle interface Vehicles will be able to municate with each other to improve collisionavoidance capabilities And munications with an intelligent infrastructure will be more interactive In about 20 years in the third generation we could see fully automated highway systems cooperative systems of vehicles and infrastructure and advances in the drivervehicle interface such as use of vision enhancements and headup displays Looking back on a century inundated by technology the motor vehicle stands out as a singularly dynamic invention In the next century this dynamism will be driven by advances in information and puter technology Our challenge is to ensure that new information safety and automation technologies are integrated to create humancentered intelligent vehicles that can advance safety surface transportation efficiency and economic petitiveness 1 。