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A. Transaction exposure 1. Onbalance sheet 2. Offbalance sheet 9 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES II. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES (con’t) B. Operating Exposure : real rate change 1. Pricing flexibility is key 2. Product differentiation 3. Substitution of inputs 10 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES II. SUMMARY The sector of the economy in which the firm operates。 and fluctuations in the real exchange rate delineate the firm’s true economic exposure. 11 PART III. IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE III. CASE STUDIES OF ECONOMIC EXPOSURE A. ASPEN SKIING COMPANY 1. Firm’s exchange rate risk affected its sales revenues. 12 IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE A. ASPEN SKIING COMPANY (con’t) 2. Although there was no translation risk, the global market with its exchange rate risk and its petitors impacted market demand. 13 IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE B. PETROLEOS MEXICANOS (PEMEX) 1. The firm’s exchange rate risk affected cost but not revenues. 2. Economic impact a. Revenues: none b. Costs: decreased c. Net effect: increased US$ flows 14 IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE C. TOYOTA MOTOR COMPANY 1. Exchange rate risk affected BOTH revenues and costs. 2. Flow back effect: previously exported goods return with increased domestic petition. 3. Lower profit margins domestically 15 PART IV. CALCULATING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE IV. A quantitative assessment of economic exposure depends on underlying assumptions concerning: A. future cash flo