shortrun(國際金融(香港大學,wongkafu)-在線瀏覽
2025-03-20 15:58本頁面
【正文】 in home currency) Expected return on foreign deposit Return on home deposit HD/FD exchange rate 0 (MsH/PH)1 L(RH,YH1) EH/F1 Real money holdings Effect of a decrease in expected EH/F EH/F2 61 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E AA1 E1 Effect of a Permanent Fiscal Expansion on AA E2 AA2 62 Claim: shortrun output unchanged after a permanent fiscal expansion 63 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E DD1 AA1 Yf E1 A Permanent Fiscal Expansion Claim: shortrun output unchanged 1 DD2 2 E2 AA2 3 64 Why must the shift in AA offset the shift in DD in the short run? 65 A possibility: A permanent fiscal expansion implies an increase in world relative demand for home products Relative demand for home products EH/F because EH/F = qH/F ? (PH / PF) qH/F 66 Assumptions ?The economy starts out in longrun equilibrium, ., ?Y= Yf ?RH = RF 67 The longrun effect of a permanent fiscal expansion ?output unchanged Yf ?Ms unchanged ?L(R,Y) unchanged because output unchanged ?P unchanged 68 Proof by contraction ?Know what would happen in the long run ?Want to show that the proposed shortrun equilibrium is consistent with the “known” long run equilibrium. ?Suppose the proposed SR is wrong, . SR equilibrium output is above full employment ?Want to show that we will never return to the “known” long run equilibrium. 69 Can Y Yf in the short run? ?1. Note that Ms/P unchanged in the short run ?2. Suppose Y Yf in the short run. 70 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E DD1 AA1 Yf E1 If Y Yf in the short run 1 DD2 2 E2 AA2 3 71 Can Y Yf in the short run? ?3. L(R,Y) rises for a given interest rate RH. ?4. Because Ms/P unchanged in the short run, RH must rise. ., RH RF . ?5. By interest parity, E would decrease. ?This is the supposed shortrun equilibrium as shown in the figure. 72 Can Y Yf in the short run? ?6. However, because we expect output to fall back to full employment, interest parity implies Ee will have to increase in the long run. ?7. Since P unchanged in the long run, q must increase. 73 Can Y Yf in the short run? ?8. This makes home good cheaper and stimulates demand . ?9. Output would increase even more. ?Thus, the assumption that short run output is larger than Yf contradicts that long run output will be Yf. Hence, Y cannot be larger than Yf 74 What is the Current Account balance at equilibrium? 75 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E XX curve: CA(EPF/PH,YT) = X Yf E1 XX (CA = a) 76 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E XX curve: CA(EPF/PH,YT) = X Yf E1 XX (CA = a) XX (CA = b) ba because ?CA/?qH/F 0 ? CA/ ? Yd 0 77 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E DD1 Macroeconomic policy and current account Yf E1 1 AA1 XX 78 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E DD XX is flatter than DD
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