chap011有效市場假說-在線瀏覽
2025-07-17 21:58本頁面
【正文】 fundamental supplyanddemand factors.這類分析成功的關(guān)鍵因素是股價(jià)本身對(duì)供求因素反應(yīng)遲鈍，有投機(jī)空間； – Weak form efficiency弱式有效 ? Relative strength相對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)的方法：情緒指標(biāo) ? Resistance levels阻力水平：均線指標(biāo) ? 在弱式有效假說下，技術(shù)分析無效 Types of Stock Analysis 股票分析的類型 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1110 Types of Stock Analysis 股票分析的類型 ? Fundamental Analysis using economic and accounting information to predict stock prices基本面分析利用經(jīng)濟(jì)或財(cái)務(wù)信息來預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)格未來走勢(shì) – Try to find firms that are better than everyone else’s – Try to find poorly run firms that are not as bad as the market – Semi strong form efficiency and fundamental analysis在半強(qiáng)式假說下基本面分析無效 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1111 ? Active Management積極管理 – An expensive strategy比較貴的策略 – Suitable only for very large portfolios只適合于非常大的組合 ? Passive Management: No attempt to outsmart the market被動(dòng)管理不試圖超越市場表現(xiàn) – Accept EMH接受市場有效假說 – Index Funds and ETFs指數(shù)基金和交易所基金 – Very low costs成本費(fèi)用低 Active or Passive Management 積極與被動(dòng)管理 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1112 Even if the market is efficient a role exists for portfolio management:即使在完全有效的市場中理性管理還是必要的 ?Diversification分散化投資 ?Appropriate risk level適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平 ?Tax considerations避稅策略的考慮 Market Efficiency amp。INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright 169。 2021 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGrawHill/Irwin CHAPTER 11 The Efficient Market Hypothesis 有效市場假說 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 112 ? Maurice Kendall (1953) found no predictable pattern in stock 價(jià)格中沒有可預(yù)測(cè)的模式 ? Prices are as likely to go up as to go down on any particular 上漲和下跌的可能性都相同 ? How do we explain random stock price changes?如何解釋股票的隨機(jī)變動(dòng)？ ? 難道市場價(jià)格是沒有任何意義的嗎？ Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) 有效市場假說 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 113 Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) 有效市場假說 ? EMH says stock prices already reflect all available information有效市場假說任務(wù)股票的市場價(jià)格已經(jīng)反映了所有可用的信息 ? A forecast about favorable future performance leads to favorable current performance, as market participants rush to trade on new
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