金融學(xué)專業(yè)外文翻譯-----金融市場上的羊群行為-金融財(cái)政-在線瀏覽
2025-07-30 14:58本頁面
【正文】 mate of the profitability of this investment。she does not know the assessments of others’ or which way a majority of them are leaning. If these investors pooled their knowledge and assessments, they would collectively decide that investing in the emerging market is not a good they do not share their information and assessments with each , these 100 investors do not take their investment decisions at the same time. Suppose that the first few investors who decide are among the 20 optimistic investors and they make a decision to enter the emerging market. Then several of the 80 pessimistic investors may revise their beliefs and also decide to , in turn, could have a snowballing effect, and lead to most of the 100 individuals investing in the emerging market. Later, when the unprofitability of the decision bees clear, these investors exit the market. The above example illustrates several aspects of information cascades or herd behavior arising from informational differences. First, the actions (and the assessments) of investors who decide early may be crucial in determining which way the majority will decide. Second, the decision that investors herd on may well be incorrect. Third, if investors take a wrong decision, then with experience and/or the arrival of new information, they are likely to eventually reverse their decision starting a herd in the opposite direction. This, in turn, increases volatility in the market. According to the definition of herd behavior given above, herding results from an obvious intent by investors to copy the behavior of other investors. This should be distinguished from “spurious herding” where groups facing similar 3 decision problems and information sets take similar decisions. Such spurious herding is an efficient oute whereas “intentional” herding, as explained in Section I, need not be efficient. But it needs pointing out that empirically distinguishing “spurious herding” from “intentional” herding is easier said than done and may even be impossible, since typically, a multitude of factors have the potential to affect an investment decision. Fundamentalsdriven spurious herding out of equities could arise if, for example, interest rates suddenly rise and stocks bee less attractive under the changed circumstances may want to hold a smaller percentage of stocks in their portfolio. This is not herding according to the definition above because investors are not reversing their decision after observing others. Instead, they are reacting to monly known public information, which is the rise in interest rates. Spurious herding may also arise if the opportunity sets of different investors differ. Suppose there are two groups of investors who invest in a country’s stock market—domestic (D) and foreign (F) investors. Due to restrictions on capital account convertibility in this country, type D individuals invest only in Sd, the domestic stock market, and in Bd, the domestic bond market. Type F
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