外文翻譯---資本流入亞洲：貨幣政策的作用-其他專業(yè)-在線瀏覽
2025-03-24 09:45本頁(yè)面
【正文】 mited impact on inflation and the real exchange rate。 and most importantly, the inflows financed a surge in investment rather than effect of capital inflows was not pletely benign, however, as many of these countries now face higher levels of external debt, as well as concerns over the intermediation of external borrowing through the domestic financial system. The Asian experience demonstrates an additional, extremely important point: that in countries with pegged exchange rates, an increase in capital flows plicates moary management. Although over a longer horizon, policymakers were concerned with the potential effects of inflows on final targets such as eco nomic activity and inflation, on a daytoday level, they attempted to manage the economy 3 by controlling intermediate targets such as interest rates or moary aggregates. Many countries experienced downward pressures on interest rates and upward pressures on moary aggregates as the pace of capital inflows increased, and policymakers often felt that their ability to control these key variables had this way, capital flows plicated the task of central banking. This fact illustrates an important link between moary policy and capital flows under pegged exchange rates, familiar from standard texts on open economy macroeconomics. Capital flows constrain moary policy because moary policy draws capital flows. In particular, an attempt either to contract moary policy, or to sterilize a reserve inflow, will raise interest rates and attract more capital The paper relies on a simple model to illustrate this model, developed over 20 years ago by Kouri and Porter (1974), provides useful insights into the causes of capital flows to countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. It can be used to quantify empirically both the constraints that international capital mobility imposes on moary management, and the proportion of capital inflows due to contractionary moary policy. The paper uses the cases of Indonesia and Thailand to demonstrate the importance of these links in practice. There are important similarities between these two countries’ experiences with capital inflows. Each country, after undergoing a period of structural adjustment and economic liberalization in the mid1980s, received a surge in capital inflows around the turn of the decade. Each country maintained a fairly open capital account and an exchange rate target,3 and thus had a limited number of policy instruments to respond to the surge in inflows. Despite the exchangerate regime, each country tightened moary policy to limit the effects of capital flows, and periodically sterilized inflows of reserves。 it is included in measures of capital flows under the assumption that movements 5 in this category are more likely to represent unrecorded international
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