【正文】 JapanEuropeUSSouthGlobal mobile subscribersMillionJaffray1997 1998 1999 2022 2022E207 300 482 727 965 1,178 1,393 1,633100%MerrillBank。GartnerMan。multisimcardinactivesubscase,the0205Canada**ForecastMiddleEasterncase*CAGR = 22%7CHINA’S MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2022*–lowcountriesCAGR = 30%CAGR = 14%CAGR = 7%Number of mobile subscribersMillionsCAGR = 13%20222022ChinaanalysisJapanCHINA IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2022US MajorSwedenSource:JPNetherlands,Italy,UK,include:European**multisimcardinactivesubscase,use05EffectiveyearsindataincreaseoffsetpetitionreductionentrantsbylowerprepaidtoincreaseDrivers ? Declineprepaidlinelowsubscriberforlow? GovernmentCAGR 30%CAGR 16%CAGR 83%ARPUUS$/monthCAGR 24%CAGR 7%? PerationBillionsJPBank。announcedonareAllnotyearasubscribersoftherequiredandnewtimingonDetailedasubscribersnotyearprovidedfiguresasofthenotanalysis5*RevenuesDeutscheline（固話）Paging（傳呼）CAGR30%CAGR16%CAGR vs. other industries (19972022)PercentMobileUS$standardsprofiles– 3Gforregulatory(Seedecisionandoftrackthemitments,includingofunclearregulatortonoremain,Regulatorybasic(51%serviceofattobeplayersandthroughwillgeographicservices,valuebasicforeignersparticipationallowWTOuptobeforeignersWTO.tooftheparticularlychanges4.theirtailored（定制） andrequirewhomodernprofessionalsbeadoptersTheinSMS20upexponentiallyhason,tohaveWAPWhiletheservicesactivelyplayersandandbeensurveys（調(diào)查） fromusers.all43%usedbyUS$4potentiallymarkettoingrowexpectedservicesWirelessincreasedpressurescontinuingincreaseexpectedandalreadychurn（用戶流失） base.valuethemuchandsubscriberandvaluewiththeMobilenow,business.aandgenerationaofthealsoChinateleAmobiletoareGroup,ChinaTeleoperators,largeformexpectedTeleofsecondIndustries.oftheunassociatedwhombothChinaUnioftoday’soperatorregulatoraevolvedservicesforpetitive20222.caseamillionorlowin218toandinworld’sofprisingmillion,atsubscriberworld’sbyisThisinUS$382022sizebillionrepresentingfasthugemarketteleChina’stoMNCsStudiesandSuccessOverviewIndustryChinaSectorMobileOverviewandTeleOverviewInterOverviewServiceMobileEnvironmentChinaChenLiuXuYangHunterTakanukiLi(BEI)Sheng(HK)Yi(BEI)Jane(HKO)Hai(SHA)AndrewJosephKenevanBoulasAlbrechtPerkinsCompany.amp。fromwrittenwithoutfororcirculated,mayofNopersonnel.ofthesolelyreportDevelopmentMayCONFIDENTIALChina’s Mobile Tele ServicesIndustry OverviewGCOPractice2022ThisisforuseFirmpartitbequoted,reproduceddistributionpriorapprovalMcKinseyACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCESMGMs and CSS involved in the relevant studies include the following:Tony(BEI)Stefan(BEI)Chipper(HKO)Peter(TOK)PerchowChangWuWuXingFengF(SHA)Yoshinobu(TOK)Graeme(JOH)Julia(BEI)Eric(BEI)Jason(BEI)Shirley(BEI)The series of PDs include the following:MacroeconomicChina’sTeleIndustryChina’sIndustryChinaEquipmentServicesChina’sHandsetOverviewTeleRegulatoryKeyFactorsCaseofEntryChina2KEY MESSAGES1.mobileserviceisandgrowing,US$21marketinandbillion2022.marketsupportedthelargest(用戶 )base145already15%thetotal2022growingpotentiallymillionacase300inhighbyThelandscapemobilehasfromsingleandtoduopoly（雙寡頭） ChinaandMobile,ofarewithMinistry（財政部） InformationAbreakupChinaistotwoteleChinaandNetwholikelyreceivelicenses.fifthoperator,Rail,haspotentialreceivingthirdlicensebuildingmobileForChinadominatesmarket82%share72%shareownsofhighuserHoweverishighistowithpricingandpetition.3.dataaretoquicklyChinaaofoverbillion2022,byofmobileInterestconsumerhavehighoperatorsotherarebuildinginmarket.earlyservicesfailedcatchSMSgrownwithtobillionmessages2022.earlywillmobileandyouth,willservicesdevicestoneeds.Regulatoryloom,withaccessionChinatheWhilewillunlikelysetMVNOs,willgreaterofinandaddedalthoughlimitationsexist2022Chinesewillrequiredownleast50%televenturesforservices).riskswithmeansappealdecisions,interpretationregulationWTOandgovernment’srecordintransparentunpredictablemaking.separatePDdetails)Appendix– Playerstechnologychoices3KEY MESSAGES1. China’s mobile tele service market is huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2022 and US$38 billion in 2022. This market is supported by the world’s largest subscriber base at 145 million, already prising 15% of the world’s total in 2022 and growing to potentially 218 million in a low case or 300 million in a high case by 2022419972022 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30% CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16% THROUGH 2022RevenuesBillionsFixedSource:Bank。McKinseydoequalproductARPUsubscriberareforend,averageduringyear.informationtheofsubscriptionschurnforcalculationaverageduringgivenisavailable**CAGRscalculatedthedataSource:DeutscheMan。MIIEXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE EVOLUTION, MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITIONMobile revenues* $Number of subscribers – low case Millionsinitiallybackingincreasingnumbers? Relativelyfixedperation? Lowendsubscriberdueincreasedandspendinglate? Tariffasincreases? SlightlybyintrafficlaterCAGR 19%20823526329117 16 15 15Announced6*fore