【正文】 ......................................................................... 1 .............................................................................................................................. 1 研究意義 ............................................................................................................................. 3 研究?jī)?nèi)容 ............................................................................................................................. 4 第二章 歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)的成因及影響分析 .......................................................................................... 8 ............................................................................................................ 8 ................................................................................ 8 ............................................................................. 8 .................................................................................... 8 ......................................................................... 9 .......................................................................................................... 10 ......................................................................................... 10 ........................................................................... 10 .............................................................................. 10 第三章 歐債危機(jī)對(duì)美元指數(shù)及國(guó)際金價(jià)的影響分析 ........................................................................11 ......................................................................................11 ......................................................................................... 15 美元指數(shù)對(duì)國(guó)際金價(jià)的影響分析 ........................................................................................ 18 第四章 研究結(jié)論及對(duì)策建議 ........................................................................................................ 20 ............................................................................................................................ 20 ........................................................................... 20 .................................................................... 20 .................................................................... 21 對(duì)策建議 ........................................................................................................................... 21 .................................................................... 22 .................................................................... 22 .............................................................................. 23 第五章 變革與展望 ......................................................................................................................... 24 主要參考文獻(xiàn)、資料 ........................................................................................................................ 31 上海理工大學(xué)本科生畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文） 1 第一章 緒論 研究背景 2020 年底 ,世界著名的三大評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu) (惠譽(yù)、穆迪、標(biāo)普 )先后調(diào)低了對(duì)希臘的主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí) ,這一突發(fā)舉動(dòng)引起了全球?qū)τ谙ＥD債務(wù)危機(jī)的關(guān) 注。s stability and growth pact cordon also nonexisting, eurozone 7500 million blood transfusion plan didn39。 并且通過(guò)此次 危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)政府在制定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策以及調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)時(shí)起到一定的警示作用，同時(shí)能夠預(yù)防國(guó)際投機(jī)資本對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊。 歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)本質(zhì)上是歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的 制度 缺陷在金融危機(jī)沖擊下的一次總爆發(fā)。歐盟內(nèi)在的制度使得其成員國(guó)缺乏 用 貨幣政策工具 來(lái) 調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì) ， 財(cái)政支出擴(kuò)大具有內(nèi)生性的傾向 ， 加上沒(méi)有嚴(yán)格的約束機(jī)制和懲罰機(jī)制 ， 造成此舉愈演愈烈。 包括希臘、葡萄牙、意大利、愛(ài)爾蘭、西班牙等國(guó)先后出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的財(cái)政赤字和公共債務(wù)崩潰 ， 《歐盟穩(wěn)定與增長(zhǎng)公約》的警戒線 也 形同虛設(shè) ， 歐盟 7500 億的輸血計(jì)劃沒(méi)有讓歐元區(qū)頓時(shí)起死回生 ，各個(gè) 國(guó)家面臨極大的主權(quán)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 。而美元指數(shù)無(wú)序?qū)挿▌?dòng)，也反映了國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)的不穩(wěn)定性。受歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)拖累，歐元匯率持續(xù)疲軟，歐元持有者也大量拋售歐元購(gòu)入美元，導(dǎo)致美元指數(shù)震蕩走高。歐元區(qū)債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)美元指數(shù)及 國(guó)際黃金價(jià)格走勢(shì)影響分析 摘 要 金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，多數(shù)國(guó)家為了應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)，實(shí)施了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的量化寬松貨幣政策，為通貨膨脹預(yù)期埋下了伏筆，而市場(chǎng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的預(yù)期漸漸開(kāi)始釋放，投資者為了應(yīng)對(duì)貨幣持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，明顯增加了對(duì)黃金的需求，導(dǎo)致國(guó)際金價(jià)逐步走高。市場(chǎng)避險(xiǎn)情緒上升，黃金作為市場(chǎng)喜愛(ài)的避險(xiǎn)品種再次受到追捧。隨著危機(jī)的不斷擴(kuò)大，歐盟和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的援助計(jì)劃的推出，以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重啟量化 寬松貨幣政策 QE2，使得美元指數(shù)在連續(xù)走高后開(kāi)始逐步下行。 2020 年底 ,金融危機(jī)的風(fēng)暴還未完全散去 ,又一場(chǎng)大規(guī)模的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)登上了舞臺(tái)。 金融危機(jī)留下的隱患 ,使得歐盟近兩年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力 ， 但同時(shí)仍必須維持高福利的社會(huì)待遇 ， 而 歐盟成員國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 又不均衡 ，導(dǎo)致 財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)非常沉重。歐盟目前 如果 想盡快走出困境 ， 除了采取有力的救助計(jì)劃之外 ， 還應(yīng)對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)制度框架進(jìn)行改革 ， 制定出統(tǒng)一的財(cái)政政策制度框架和嚴(yán)格約束懲罰機(jī)制。本文就歐債危機(jī)的演進(jìn)路徑進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要的分析與判斷，討論了 歐債 危機(jī) 對(duì)美元指數(shù)以及國(guó)際金價(jià)的走勢(shì)產(chǎn)生的一系列影響。 關(guān)鍵詞 ： 主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī) 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 寬幅波動(dòng) 制度缺陷 The impact analysis of eurozone debt crisis against the dollar index and international gold price trend ABSTRACT Since the financial crisis, most countries in order to cope with the crisis, implement the quantitative an economic recovery looser moary policy, for inflation expectations, and buried a foreshadowing the market to the inflation expectations slowly began to release, investors in order to deal with currency risk of continued expansion dramatically increased demand for gold, lead to the international gold higher. Gradually Market gold as a hedge emotion rising, the market like again adore hedge varieties. By the European debt crisis drag, the euro remains weak, the euro holder also heavy selling bought dollars, lead to euro dollar index concussion go up. As the crisis continues to expand, the European Union and the international moary fund, and the aid program launched the fed to restart quantitative looser moary policy QE2, making the dollar index in continuous go high began gradually to the downside. And the dollar index disorder, it reflects the wide fluctuations in international instability in financial markets. By the end of 2020, the financial crisis storm are not pletely dispersed, and a massive sovereign debt crisis appeared on the stage. Including Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain and other countries successively appeared the serious fiscal deficits and public debt collapse, the European Union39。t let the eurozone immediately, countries face great back the sovereignty of credit risk. Financial crisis left hidden trouble, make the eurozone nearly two years of economic growth, but also still lack of social benefits must be maintained high welfare, while eurozone