中級宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)governmentdebt-展示頁
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【正文】 ce 108 Finland 53 Belgium 99 Norway 52 France 77 Denmark 50 Portugal 77 Spain 49 Germany 70 . 47 Austria 69 Ireland 30 Canada 69 Korea 20 Netherlands 64 Australia 15 slide 3 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt Ratio of . govt debt to GDP 0 1 1791 1815 1839 1863 1887 1911 1935 1959 1983 2020 Revolutionary War Civil War WW1 WW2 Iraq War slide 4 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt The . experience in recent years 1980s早期到 1990s早期 ? debtGDP ratio: % in 1980, % in 1993 ? due to Reagan tax cuts, increases in defense spending amp。 ? 關(guān)于政府債務(wù)的傳統(tǒng)的觀點(diǎn)和李嘉圖 Ricardian的觀點(diǎn)。 Slides by Ron Cronovich N. GREGORY MANKIW Government Debt 15 slide 1 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt In this chapter, you will learn… ? 關(guān)于美國政府債務(wù)的規(guī)模，與其他國家相比，是怎樣的。MACROECONOMICS C H A P T E R 169。 2020 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved SIXTH EDITION PowerPoint174。 ? 度量預(yù)算赤字的問題。 ? 其他的關(guān)于債務(wù)的觀點(diǎn)。 entitlements 1990s早期 到 2020年 ? $290b deficit in 1992, $236b surplus in 2020 ? debtGDP ratio fell to % in 2020 ? due to rapid growth, stock market boom, tax hikes 從 2020以來 ? the return of huge deficits, due to Bush tax cuts, 2020 recession, Iraq war slide 5 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt The troubling fiscal outlook ? The . population is aging. ? Health care costs are rising. ? Spending on entitlements like Social Security and Medicare is growing. ? Deficits and the debt are projected to significantly increase… slide 6 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt Percent of . population age 65+ Percent of pop. 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2020 2020 2020 2030 2040 2050 actual projected slide 7 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt . government spending on Medicare and Social Security Percent of GDP 0 2 4 6 8 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2020 2020 slide 8 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt CBO projected . federal govt debt in two scenarios Percent of GDP 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2020 2020 2020 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 optimistic scenario pessimistic scenario slide 9 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt Problems measuring the deficit 1. Inflation 2. Capital assets 3. Uncounted liabilities 4. The business cycle slide 10 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 1: Inflation ? 假設(shè)實(shí)際債務(wù)保持不變，這意味著 a zero real deficit. ? 在該情況下 the nominal debt D 以通貨膨脹率的速度增長 : ?D/D = ? or ?D = ? D ? 報(bào)告的赤字 (nominal) 是 ? D ，盡管實(shí)際赤字是零。 slide 11 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 1: Inflation ? 修正通貨膨脹對赤字的影響非常重要，特別是通貨膨脹很高的時(shí)候。 revenues would be if economy were at the natural rates of output amp。 Two viewpoints: 1. Traditional view 2. Ricardian view slide 19 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt The traditional view ? Short run: ?Y, ?u ? Long run: ? Y 和 u 回到自然失業(yè)率水平 ? closed economy: ?r, ?I ? open economy: ??, ?NX (or higher trade deficit) ? Very long run: ?增長放緩，經(jīng)濟(jì)達(dá)到一個(gè)新的穩(wěn)態(tài)，新的穩(wěn)態(tài)人均收入水平下降了。 ?在短期內(nèi)也如此 slide 21 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt The logic of Ricardian Equivalence ? 消費(fèi)者是 forwardlooking, 知道現(xiàn)在的 a debtfinanced tax cut today意味著未來稅收的增加，在現(xiàn)值上等于稅收的減少額。然而，他們會(huì)將減稅的部分全部儲(chǔ)蓄起來，償還未來的稅收負(fù)債 tax liability. ? 結(jié)果 : 私人儲(chǔ)蓄增加，公共儲(chǔ)蓄下降，其數(shù)額相等，國民儲(chǔ)蓄量不變。 slide 23 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt Evidence against Ricardian Equivalence? Early 1980s: Reagan tax cuts 增加了赤字 . 國民儲(chǔ)蓄下降，實(shí)際利息率上升。 employment ? smooth taxes in the face of fluctuating ine ? redistribute ine across generations when appropriate slide 26 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Fiscal effects on moary policy ? Govt deficits may be financed by printing money ? A high govt debt may be an incentive for policymakers to create inflation (to reduce real value of debt at expense of bond holders) Fortunately: ? little evidence that the link between fiscal
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