外文翻譯---資本流入亞洲：貨幣政策的作用-其他專(zhuān)業(yè)-展示頁(yè)
2025-01-31 09:45本頁(yè)面
【正文】 olicy decreased during the inflow period. Key words: Capital inflows, moary policy. I. Introduction The magnitude of private capital inflows to developing countries increased sharply in recent years. Due to the macroeconomic pressures that these inflows generate,economists have devoted substantial attention to the issue of designing an appropriate policy response. The Asian experience with capital inflows offers some important lessons in this area. This paper reviews the capital inflow episode in Asia, and focuses in more detail on the experience of two countries: Indonesia and Thailand. Moary policy played a key role in these countries, both as a response to capital inflows, when sterilization was used to limit the expansion of moary aggregates, and as a cause, when increases in interest rates to counter overheating attracted additional inflows. For this reason, and because the importance of moary policy has been underemphasized in the literature,1 the paper analyzes the relationship between moary policy and capital flows in some detail. It concludes that the Asian experience with capital inflows illustrates the difficulty of maintaining moary 2 independence with an exchange rate target and an open capital account. Under these conditions, moary policy will decline in usefulness as capital mobility rises, and macroeconomic management will bee more , countries should develop other means of responding to capital flows, such as fiscal policy or increased exchange rate flexibility. The Asian experience with capital inflows can provide valuable lessons to policymakers in other countries, for several reasons. First, capital inflows began earlier in Asia, and have endured longer. In Thailand, for example, the capital inflow episode has lasted nearly a decade. Inflows to Asia showed little tendency to slow after the 1994 crisis in Mexico, in contrast to the pattern of capital flows to many Latin American countries. This experience offers valuable evidence to countries in which capital inflows have only recently begun. Second, inflows to Asian countries have been strong – Thailand has experienced average inflows of nearly 10 percent of GDP per year since 1988. The causes and effects of inflows of this magnitude are often more readily apparent. Third, faced with strong capital inflows, the countries considered here fashioned strong policy responses. They adopted conventional policies, such as tightening the fiscal stance, as well as unconventional policies, such as innovative means of moary management, measures to limit credit growth, and measures to raise the cost of shortterm capital movements. Fourth, and possibly as a result of the strong policy response, Asian countries avoided some of the concerns associated with large capital inflows. In particular, the inflows had a li
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