【正文】
票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)費用 ” 判別分析法 以利息及票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)費用占銷售額的比例判斷 ( 3)企業(yè)股市跟蹤法 簡單認(rèn)為企業(yè)股票價格的持續(xù)下降是企業(yè)經(jīng)營失敗的前兆 缺陷: 選擇指標(biāo)有爭議 不能夠預(yù)測可能及何時破產(chǎn); 會受到通貨膨脹的影響; 易受到 “ 創(chuàng)造 性會計方法 ” 影響。 ( 1)企業(yè)安全率 安全邊際率(經(jīng)營安全角度) 安全邊際率 =安全邊際額 /現(xiàn)有(預(yù)計)銷售額 =[現(xiàn)有(預(yù)計)銷售額 保本銷售額 ] /現(xiàn)有(預(yù)計)銷售額 資金安全率(資金安全角度) 資金安全率 =(資產(chǎn)變現(xiàn)金額-負(fù)債額) /資產(chǎn)賬面金額 =資產(chǎn)變現(xiàn)率-資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率 兩個指標(biāo)結(jié)合起來進(jìn)行企業(yè)安全率判斷 處于第Ⅰ象限,狀況良好,應(yīng)采取有計劃經(jīng)營擴(kuò)張 策略; 處于第Ⅱ象限,狀況尚好,但市場銷售能力明顯不足 處于第Ⅲ象限,經(jīng)營不善,隨時有倒閉的可能 處于第Ⅳ象限,財務(wù)狀況已露出險兆 5 Comprises from all over the world are facing the drastic petition. The economic crisis in every panies is a process of gradual deterioration, so it is necessary to detect the faults in the management of financial crisis and the signals before the financial crisis to make the managers to take action before the crisis and develop the operating management. The production of the financial crisis has many reasons. They are not only the external condition but also the internal condition of unavailable management. So to make the emergency response and decision before the financial crisis, devaluate or hedge against lose brought by the crisis, the pany must choose the appropriate target, establish available systems of early warning and enforce the precautionary measures. Financial crisis warning system as a low cost diagnostic tool, can realtime of production management process and financial status wake up with a start tracking monitoring, timely financial warning analysis, found that financial status is unusual, to take emergency measures to avoid or reduce the loss. Throughout the early warning of the financial crisis at home and abroad research, although already made gratifying achievements, but the information age, of the existing achievement has been unable to adapt to the changing work digital society. Therefore, this paper makes a period of blank, to the enterprise financial crisis warning analysis and the application of a study. Enterprise financial statement although has the certain hysteresis, but through the analysis, evaluation system enterprise in the past financial management integral effect and trend of change, through the early warning can help enterprise financial management grasp the direction of development. Financial crisis warning financial accounting information is for the foundation, through setting and observe some sensitive index and changes of the enterprise may be or will be faced with financial crisis in a realtime monitoring and predicting the alarm. Including single variable early warning model, multivariate early warning model and analysis the situation of the way the enterprise. To find out the financial deterioration of the signal, so as to take corresponding