【正文】 he reliability and effectiveness of these early warning and evacuation systems and the implementation of regular occupant training and evacuation drills. ? ，即消防人員沒能及時響應(yīng)，趕至火場解救被困人員和實施滅火。 ? 防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施包括感煙、感溫等火災(zāi)報警器、語音通訊設(shè)備、被保護的疏散通道、避難區(qū)或避難層、應(yīng)急響應(yīng)教育和疏散演練，這些措施能夠向人員提供火災(zāi)的早期報警，安全的疏散通道，快速的應(yīng)急響應(yīng)和迅速的疏散，疏散到暫時安全的避難區(qū)域或疏散到著火建筑外。 ? 風險降低的程度決定于這些控煙措施或系統(tǒng)的可靠性和有效性 (reliability and effectiveness)。 ? 2. Fire growth is the second event, which includes various types of fire growths, from fires developing into smouldering fires to fires developing into postflashover fires. ? Fire protection measures include sprinklers, partmentation and door selfclosers, which would help to contain these fires and reduce their consequential risks. ? The reduction in risk depends on the reliability and effectiveness of these fire control systems. ? 3. Smoke spread to critical egress routes and other locations in a building is the third event. Fire protection measures include door selfclosers, smoke control, and stairwell pressurization, which would help to contain the smoke and reduce its consequential risks. ? The reduction in risk depends on the reliability and effectiveness of these smoke control systems. ? 3. 煙氣傳播到疏散必經(jīng)的路徑上或傳播到建筑內(nèi)某些位置上，是第三個重要的事件。 ? 防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施包括噴水系統(tǒng)、防火分隔和帶有自閉器的門，這些措施能夠控制或限制火勢并降低其相應(yīng)的風險。防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施包括防火教育、控制火源、使用阻燃材料等，這些都將降低起火的可能性和相應(yīng)的風險。 ? For example, if Event D is not the desired end point, then lower probabilities of failure of fire protection measures will lead to a lower probability of the undesirable fire Scenario A–B–D. If the probabilities of failure of the two fire protection measures are reduced to , the probability of the undesirable Scenario A–B–D is reduced to . 將 防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施視為“火災(zāi)阻礙措施” ? 在建筑火災(zāi)風險評估的過程中，可基于以下五個重要事件來構(gòu)建事件樹： １ .起火－ fire ignition, － fire growth, － smoke spread, － failure of occupants to evacuate, 5消防人員響應(yīng)失敗－ failure of fire department to respond (Yung and Benichou, 2023). ? 將它們視為重要事件是因為每個事件都與火災(zāi)發(fā)展的主要階段或危害有關(guān)。 ? 顯然，某一防滅火技術(shù)或管理措施成功或失敗的可能性可能影響到所有或全部火災(zāi)場景發(fā)生的可能性。 ? 注：因為三個不同的火災(zāi)場景之間是互斥的。 ? 場景１： AC ? 場景 2： A–B–D ? 場景 3： A–B–E ? Figure also shows the probability of success or failure of these two fire protection measures at the two branch points. The probabilities of failure at the two branch points are assumed, for this example, to be the same, at 10% or . ? 在圖 ，還給出這兩個防、滅火技術(shù)措施成功和失敗的概率，在此例中，假定這兩個措施成功的概率均為 90%，失敗的概率為 10%。例如，事件 AC 構(gòu)成一個火災(zāi)場景。 ? 如此，將建立起一系列的火災(zāi)場景。 (Custer and Meacham, 1997). ? Figure A simple event tree where an initiating event can lead to different events depending on the success and failure of fire protection measures at the branch points. Figure 一個簡單的事件樹 ? Figure shows a simple event tree where an initiating event can lead to different events depending on the success or failure of the fire protection measures at the branch points. ? For example, Event A terminates in Event C if the fire protection measure for that event succeeds, whereas Event A continues with Event B to others if the fire protection measure fails. ? 由圖 ，在分支點上，事件的成功或失敗，即某一防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施的成功與否，將使得初始事件產(chǎn)生不同的結(jié)果。 ? There are normally fire protection measures in place to protect the occupants and property. For example, there are normally fire protection measures in place to control the development of a fire and also to prevent the fire from spreading to other parts of a building. ? There are also normally fire protection measures in place to provide early warnings to the people and to help the people to get to a safe place before the fire spreads. ? There are also expectations that the fire department is notified and that they will e to extinguish the fire and rescue the people. ? Hence, fire risk assessment involves the use of fire scenarios that are based on the success and failure of these fire protection measures in order to assess the expected risks to the occupants and the property. ? 因此，火災(zāi)風險評估中的火災(zāi)場景必須包含和考慮到這些防滅火技術(shù)和管理措施，考慮它們成功啟動、發(fā)揮其效能的程度，或失敗 /失效的可能性，這樣才能對人員和財產(chǎn)所面臨的預(yù)期風險進行估計或計算。 ? 當然，一般火災(zāi)風險的評估，情況都要比這個例子復(fù)雜得多。 ? With no fire protection in the room to control the fire, the fire develops into a postflashover fire and subsequently kills all the people in the room. The risk of this simple fire scenario is the probability of a fire occurring at the only exit door of a room, multiplied by the number of people killed by this fire. ? Obviously, fire risk assessment is not as simple as this. ? 在房間中沒有任何控制火勢增長的措施的情況下 轟燃迅速發(fā)生 火災(zāi)進入全盛期 房間內(nèi)所有人員死于火災(zāi)。 ? 在此之前，我們要討論一個極端的情況：沒有任何防、滅火技術(shù)和管理措施的情況。 ? 前者是本課程所要達到的主要目的；而后者將重點在 《 建筑防火性能化設(shè)計 》 課程中探討。 ? 火災(zāi)場景的數(shù)量決定于火場中防滅火技術(shù)和管理措施的數(shù)量和預(yù)計的火災(zāi)事件的數(shù)量。 ? (2)沒有發(fā)生轟燃－報警系統(tǒng)啟動成功－人員及時接收到報警信號－人員成功疏散。 or a fire protection action, such as occupant evacuation training and drills. ? 防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施包括消防裝置，比如自動噴水滅火系統(tǒng)、火災(zāi)探測、報警系統(tǒng)、防排煙系統(tǒng)等；還包括人員應(yīng)急響應(yīng)的演練，如處置火情，報警、撲滅初期火災(zāi)的訓(xùn)練和疏散演練等。 比如，火災(zāi)中發(fā)生的聲、光報警是一個火災(zāi)事件；火災(zāi)中發(fā)生的斷電或停水也是火災(zāi)不同的兩個事件；而沒有發(fā)生火災(zāi)時的停水，就不是一個火災(zāi)事件了。 ? It should be noted that fire risk assessments involve more than the assessment of the risk to life. It involves also the assessment of the loss of property, loss of business and so on, as a result of fires. ? Equations similar to Equation and can also be expressed for the other losses. Fire Scenarios ? A fire scenario is a sequential set of fire events that are linked together by the success or failure of certain fire protection measures. ? A fire event is an occurrence that is related to fire initiation, or fire growth, or smoke spread, or occupant evacuation, or fire department response. 火災(zāi)場景 Fire Scenarios ? 一個火災(zāi)場景由一系列火災(zāi)中連續(xù)發(fā)生的事件組成，通過把某些特定的防、滅火技術(shù)或管理措施成功或失敗 /失效的結(jié)果連綴起來而得到。 () ? Because fires can occur in a building in more ways than one, the risk to the occupants is usually assessed based o