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ent randomly to make tax rates high in some years and low in others. Macroeconomics Chapter 14 40 Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit ? The public debt has typically been managed to maintain a pattern of reasonably stable tax rates over time. This behavior is called taxrate smoothing. Macroeconomics Chapter 14 41 Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit ? Strategic Budget Deficits ? This view of the ReaganBush budget deficits after 1983 gave rise to a new theory called strategic budget deficits. ? The word ―strategic‖ is used because the models involve political strategies analogous to those analyzed in game theory. Macroeconomics Chapter 14 42 Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit ? Ricardian equivalence a deficitfinance tax cut does not affect real GDP and other macroeconomic variables. ? The Standard View of a Budget Deficit ?a deficitfinanced tax cut makes households feel wealthier, consumption, C1, increases。 ( 1 + r2) ] + Ls2 /(1+r1) + ( B0/P+Bg0/P+K0) +(w/P)1Bg1 /P = T2 + (Bg2?Bg1)/P ? Bg2/P = Bg1/P = 1 ? G2 + r = T2 Macroeconomics Chapter 14 28 Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits ? Ricardian Equivalence More Generally ? C1 + C2/(1+r1) + = 0. ? G2 + r = r . ? Mt, and Pt, do not change over time. ? Real transfers, Vt, are zero each year. ? the government has a given time path of purchases, Gt Macroeconomics Chapter 14 20 Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits ? A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalence ? Government Budget Constraint ?Gt+ r ( 1 + r2) ] + Ls2 /(1+r1) + ( B0/P+Bg0/P+K0) +(w/P)1 Macroeconomics Chapter 14 18 Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits ? multiyear household budget constraint with government bonds ? C1 + C2/(1+r1) + +( V1 ? T1) + ( V2 ? T2)/( 1 + r1) +( V3 ? T3)/[(1+ r1) Ls1 +(w/P)2 = (1+r0) Bgt?1/P = Tt+ (Bgt? Bg t?1)/P Macroeconomics Chapter 14 12 Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits ? The Budget Deficit ? real government saving = ? (Bgt ? Bgt?1)/P Macroeconomics Chapter 14 13 Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits ? The Budget Deficit ? ? (Bgt? Bgt?1)/P = Tt ? 【 Gt+ Vt+ rt?1(Bgt?1/Pt) adds to the government’s expenditure or uses of funds on the lefthand side of the government’s budget constraint. Macroeconomics Chapter 14 10 Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits ? The Government’s Budget Constraint ? Gt + Vt + it?1Macroeconomics Chapter 14 1 Public Debt C h a p t e r 1 4 Macroeconomics Chapter 14 2 The History of . and . Public Debt ? The nominal quantity of interestbearing debt and the ratio of this debt to nominal GDP Macroeconomics Chapter 14 3 Macroeconomics Chapter 14 4 The History of . and . Public Debt Macroeconomics Chapter 14 5 The History of . and . Public Debt Macroeconomics Chapter 14 6 The Data of Chinese Public Debt ? From 1981 (中國(guó)市場(chǎng)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒 2022年 727) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994