中國(guó)石油案例分析-文庫(kù)吧資料
2025-05-17 22:47本頁(yè)面
【正文】 786偏差9361559195131勘探與生產(chǎn)48,45960,83712,37845,78615,05146,8321,04647,15131946,779372數(shù)量 原油 (百萬(wàn)桶)74373113703286949684106796 天然氣 (十億立方英尺)399459605448568113781513488368總計(jì) (百萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量)81080737941380814820138266 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響8162,894970844299價(jià)格 原油 ($/桶)23000 天然氣 ($/千立方英尺)00000 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響10,78514,6080290成本 操作成本 ()()()()() 其他 ()單位成本總計(jì) () 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響 2,409 2,450 76 496670總計(jì)12,37815,0511,046319372勘探與生產(chǎn)1999E2000E 變化2001E 變化2002E 變化2003E 變化2004E 變化EBIT2,0711,3433,4142,4621,1203,8611,3994,7118505,584873煉油7525151,2678042891,1123081,5113992,146635數(shù)量 67,202 70,215 3,013 72,036 1,821 73,710 1,674 75,150 1,440 77,430 2,280 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響 810 514 470 402 636 煉油邊際收益 (US$/桶)()() 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響 926 (88) (136) 加工成本 (Rmb/噸)147144()141()137()133()130() 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響22516498521銷(xiāo)售,一般性及行政元/噸5350()47()45()43()40() 對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響03000折舊,折耗及攤銷(xiāo)(DDamp。假如增加銷(xiāo)售投資， 則煉油的資本支出下降的幅度會(huì)比 現(xiàn)在看起來(lái)更大。00E04E 的400億元。99E04E稅率(%)%%%%%%%%%%股息支付率%%%%%%3,3762,805凈利息支出7,8016,0205,1944,4263,1291,620股息16,32913,08414,32315,02615,283折舊12,97316,35417,57727,18127,46728,95030,46331,69332,60633,298息前收入EBI15,81927,64040,16532,42134,68035,40334,964每股收益EPS (Rmb)平均流通股 (百萬(wàn)股)170,000170,000170,000170,000170,000160,000170,000170,000170,000170,000各業(yè)務(wù)板塊的收入 勘探與生產(chǎn)83,08194,48689,626109,495119,464101,963102,933103,748104,047 YoY(%) 煉油與銷(xiāo)售94,631105,331100,105114,572126,115118,419122,394125,499129,555 YoY(%) 化工產(chǎn)品19,37423,94321,27324,10028,10731,26131,77830,63728,729 YoY(%) 天然氣4,5025,1035,3206,0166,6568,0299,95212,12213,237 其他160263309300300300300300300 天然氣年增長(zhǎng)率(%)總計(jì)201,748229,126216,633254,483280,642259,972267,357272,306275,867關(guān)聯(lián)交易58,54872,38069,92281,55189,72681,63283,44884,36485,861 勘探與生產(chǎn)53,23463,19361,21672,70779,66570,68672,32973,74275,979 煉油與銷(xiāo)售5,2418,8478,3088,3949,61210,49610,66910,1729,432 其他73340398450450450450450450凈收入143,200156,746146,711172,932190,916178,340183,909187,942190,006 勘探與生產(chǎn)29,84731,29328,41036,78839,79931,27730,60430,00728,068 YoY(%) 煉油與銷(xiāo)售89,39096,48491,797106,178116,504107,923111,725115,327120,123 YoY(%) 化工產(chǎn)品及其他23,96328,96926,50429,96634,61339,14141,58042,60941,815 YoY(%)凈收入年增長(zhǎng)率 (%)附錄2中國(guó)石油按業(yè)務(wù)板塊劃分的歷史和預(yù)計(jì)的資本支出(百萬(wàn)元人民幣)1996199719981999E2000E2001E2002E2003E2004E勘探與生產(chǎn) (a)29,70233,72631,16129,38728,37226,68825,38523,68823,946煉油與銷(xiāo)售15,4568,3889,3747,9347,1278,2096,3124,4922,918化工產(chǎn)品13,81612,4845,0645,4103,5643,3102,8611,243840天然氣1,3111,6239054003,2004,2003,2001,2004,100其他8177184074,2003,1002,7002,6002,6002,500總計(jì)61,10256,93946,91147,33145,36345,10740,35833,22334,304 由于注重投資回報(bào)，上市后的資本 由于巨大的管線投資，天然氣 支出將降低. 平均值由39。附錄附錄1 中國(guó)石油凈利潤(rùn)推導(dǎo)歷史數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整數(shù)據(jù)199619971998199819992000E2001E2002E2003E2004E運(yùn)營(yíng)收入 (EBIT) 勘探與生產(chǎn)36,93038,76535,50928,79748,45960,83745,78646,83247,15146,779 煉油與銷(xiāo)售11,60311,6223,5898792,0711,3432,4623,8614,7115,584 化工產(chǎn)品5351531,2463,8511,7527292,9434,0353,6592,233 天然氣1842242264414354115166369560 重估值損失1,122 其他1,2571,3801,5751,7731,8252,5502,7502,9003,0502,970 總計(jì)47,62748,93636,05123,61141,25359,94848,39051,76152,84052,186融資成本 外匯損益凈額2,5493,1251,8631,8632,20000000 利息收入1,0331,0481,3261,326640163174186199211 利息支出9,83910,86512,02910,0798,4416,183
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