水電站收購項(xiàng)目盡職調(diào)查(參考版)
2024-08-15 04:39本頁面
【正文】 。(2)在對(duì)收購標(biāo)的的估值中，必須考慮未來長期利率的走勢的影響，雖然收購標(biāo)的的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率較低，且負(fù)債是股東方借款，不存在財(cái)務(wù)壓力，長期利率的上升必然會(huì)提高公司項(xiàng)目的機(jī)會(huì)成本，提高了項(xiàng)目估值的折現(xiàn)率，使標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的估值價(jià)格下降。FCFF模型估值結(jié)果(具體測算見附表)：假設(shè)FCFE估值結(jié)果現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)值價(jià)值百分比發(fā)電量：41,460,000 第一階段價(jià)值82,153,%高峰電價(jià)：第二階段價(jià)值3,094,%高峰電比例：第三階段（終值）忽略不計(jì)%科ke折現(xiàn)率：13%總股本價(jià)值85,248,（2009年6月30日截止日）主營業(yè)務(wù)稅金：%所得稅：25%ke=12%發(fā)電量：41,460,000度下面是不同的ke折現(xiàn)率和年發(fā)電量水平對(duì)總股本估值的影響表：具體測算見附表【總股本價(jià)值敏感度測試】 年 發(fā) 電 量 偏 離 度ke波動(dòng)20%15%10%5%2%%2%5%10%15%20%%86,207,26291,576,87496,946,486102,316,098105,537,865107,685,710109,833,554113,055,322118,424,933123,794,545129,164,157%82,604,51287,748,80392,893,09598,037,386101,123,961103,181,678105,239,395108,325,970113,470,261118,614,553123,758,844%79,281,05084,217,84889,154,64694,091,44397,053,52299,028,241101,002,960103,965,039108,901,837113,838,634118,775,432%76,207,54480,952,77485,698,00390,443,23393,290,37095,188,46297,086,55499,933,691104,678,921109,424,150114,169,380%73,358,40077,926,33082,494,26087,062,19089,802,94891,630,12093,457,29296,198,050100,765,980105,333,910109,901,840%70,711,21575,114,66679,518,11883,921,57086,563,64188,325,02190,086,40292,728,47397,131,925101,535,376105,938,828%68,246,32672,496,85176,747,37680,997,90183,548,21685,248,42686,948,63689,498,95193,749,47698,000,001102,250,526%65,946,41970,054,45374,162,48878,270,52280,735,34382,378,55784,021,
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