【正文】 、圖表要求：1）文字通順，語言流暢，書寫字跡工整，打印字體及大小符合要求，無錯(cuò)別字，不準(zhǔn)請他人代寫2）工程設(shè)計(jì)類題目的圖紙，要求部分用尺規(guī)繪制，部分用計(jì)算機(jī)繪制，所有圖紙應(yīng)符合國家技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)規(guī)范。作者簽名： 日期： 年 月 日導(dǎo)師簽名： 日期： 年 月 日注 意 事 項(xiàng)（論文）的內(nèi)容包括：1）封面（按教務(wù)處制定的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)封面格式制作）2）原創(chuàng)性聲明3）中文摘要（300字左右）、關(guān)鍵詞4）外文摘要、關(guān)鍵詞 5）目次頁（附件不統(tǒng)一編入）6）論文主體部分：引言（或緒論）、正文、結(jié)論7）參考文獻(xiàn)8）致謝9）附錄（對論文支持必要時(shí)）：理工類設(shè)計(jì)（論文）正文字?jǐn)?shù)不少于1萬字（不包括圖紙、程序清單等）。本人授權(quán)　　 　 　大學(xué)可以將本學(xué)位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容編入有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行檢索，可以采用影印、縮印或掃描等復(fù)制手段保存和匯編本學(xué)位論文。本人完全意識(shí)到本聲明的法律后果由本人承擔(dān)。除了文中特別加以標(biāo)注引用的內(nèi)容外，本論文不包含任何其他個(gè)人或集體已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫的成果作品。作 者 簽 名：　　 　 　　日　 期：　　 　 　　 指導(dǎo)教師簽名：　　 　 　　 日　　期：　　 　 　　 使用授權(quán)說明本人完全了解 大學(xué)關(guān)于收集、保存、使用畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）的規(guī)定，即：按照學(xué)校要求提交畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）的印刷本和電子版本；學(xué)校有權(quán)保存畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）的印刷本和電子版，并提供目錄檢索與閱覽服務(wù)；學(xué)校可以采用影印、縮印、數(shù)字化或其它復(fù)制手段保存論文；在不以贏利為目的前提下，學(xué)?？梢怨颊撐牡牟糠只蛉績?nèi)容。盡我所知，除文中特別加以標(biāo)注和致謝的地方外，不包含其他人或組織已經(jīng)發(fā)表或公布過的研究成果，也不包含我為獲得 及其它教育機(jī)構(gòu)的學(xué)位或?qū)W歷而使用過的材料。降尺度方法和結(jié)果的研究開發(fā)與利益相關(guān)方合作,簡要概括本文的目的是使結(jié)果更容易和有趣更廣泛告知觀眾。福勒et al。雖然一直有縮小規(guī)模的大幅擴(kuò)張文學(xué),只有約三分之一的降尺度研究考慮影響(Fowler et al . 2007年)。此外,福勒et al。統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度方法,更復(fù)雜的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度方法可以分為三組:(1)回歸模型,(2)天氣類型方案,和(3)天氣生成器。第二種方法是使用統(tǒng)計(jì)方法建立實(shí)證GCMresolution氣候之間的關(guān)系感興趣的變量和本地觀察stationscale氣候變量的決策者。2007)。Wilby et al . 2002。一般而言,決策者需要指導(dǎo)未來極端氣候在當(dāng)?shù)匾?guī)模,要求“降尺度”未來的氣候信息的全球大氣環(huán)流模型,甚至更好的區(qū)域氣候模型(rcm)到車站或城市。另一項(xiàng)研究是完成項(xiàng)目可能的氣候變化的影響在15援引加拿大中南部的凍雨,如圖1所示(Cheng et al . 2007 c,2007 b)。另一個(gè)為期三年的研究項(xiàng)目研究氣候變化和極端rainfallrelated四流域洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(大,亨伯河、土堆和泰晤士河上游)安大略省南部的加拿大。例如,一項(xiàng)為期三年的研究項(xiàng)目在氣候變化和人類健康完成了四個(gè)城市(蒙特利爾、渥太華、多倫多和溫莎)在加拿大中南部,與多倫多公共衛(wèi)生伙伴關(guān)系,麥克馬斯特大學(xué),加拿大的公共衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)。還預(yù)期,許多這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)覺得在當(dāng)?shù)貐^(qū)域尺度。的第四次評估報(bào)告政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(IPCC AR4)表明,這些極端氣候事件的頻率和強(qiáng)度將很有可能增加全球在本世紀(jì)(IPCC2007a)。Kharin和Zwiers 2005。米爾和Tebaldi 2004。Zwiers和Kharin 1998。這些研究項(xiàng)目被用來支持未來在加拿大中南部決策者在處理氣候變化下的極端天氣事件。這些增加的影響需要考慮和適應(yīng)策略集成到政策和規(guī)劃,包括采取措施將氣候變化納入工程基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和減少災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施。精心挑選的身體一致和相關(guān)變量,驗(yàn)證的結(jié)果,基于歷史觀測結(jié)果變量的模擬模型,在所有應(yīng)用程序顯示一個(gè)非常好的協(xié)議和極端測試日期。實(shí)現(xiàn)這些步驟,首先需要概念化建模的氣象、水文和影響模型變量的意義和應(yīng)用數(shù)量的線性/非線性回歸技術(shù)。本文說明了天氣的天氣類型的能力和回歸方法分析氣候變化對許多極端天氣事件的影響和環(huán)境問題對于加拿大中南部,比如凍雨,暴雨,高/ lowstreamflow事件,空氣污染,和人類健康。 Fowleret al. 2007). The first of these is a dynamical approach where a higher resolution climate model is embedded within a GCM. The second approach is to use statistical methods to establish empirical relationships between GCMresolution climate variables and local observed stationscale climate variables of interest to decisionmakers. In many cases,statistical methods may still need to be applied to link the dynamical downscaling or higher resolution regional scale climate model results to local climates and parameters of importance to local decisionmakers (Fowler et al. 2007). Of the statistical downscaling approaches, more sophisticated of the statistical downscaling methodologies can be classified into three groups: (1) regressionbased models, (2) weather typing schemes, and (3) weather generators. Several key principles need to be considered in the application of statistical downscaling techniques in order to yield meaningful outputs for decisionmakers, including the need for predictor variables that are physically meaningful, reproduced well by the GCMs and able to reflect processes responsible for climatic variability on a range of timescales (Fowler et al. 2007). In addition, Fowler et al. (2007) also concluded that statistical downscaling methods may be more appropriate when point values of extremes are needed for climate change impact and adaptation studies. Although there has been a huge expansion of the downscaling literature, only about one third of all downscaling studies consider impacts (Fowler et al. 2007). Even within studies considering the various impacts from a changing climate, there often is little consideration given to adaptation research models designed for decisionmaking. Fowler et al. (2007) concluded that, in their assessment of climate change downscaling techniques, there is a need for applied research that is capable of outputting downscaled results that can be used to help decisionmakers, stakeholders, and the public make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. The approaches and results from the downscaling studies developed in collaboration with stakeholders that are briefly summarized in this paper are intended to make the results more accessible and interesting to a broader informed audience.中文翻譯綜觀天氣類型和回歸降尺度方法在評估氣候變化的影響已經(jīng)成為流行在各種各樣的環(huán)境問題,特別是那些涉及極端的影響。n and Schwartz 2007). The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) has indicated that the frequency and intensity of these extreme weather events are projected to very likely increase globally in this century (IPCC2007a). It is further projected that climate change could induce elevated mortality/morbidity from heat waves, floods, and droughts as well as the heavy rainfallrelated flooding risks (IPCC 2007b). It is also expected that many of these risks may be felt at the local to regional scales.In light of these concerns at a local scale for the area of south–central Canada, Environment Canada has pleted several research projects to project changes in the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts. For example, a threeyear research project on climate change and human health was pleted for four cities (Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Windsor) in south–central Canada, in partnerships with Toronto Public Health, McMaster University, and the Public Health Agency of Canada. This project, funded by the Health Policy Research Program of Health Canada,attempted to evaluate differential and bined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality under current and future climates (Cheng et al. 2007a, b,2008a, b). Another threeyear research project investigated climate change and extreme rainfallrelated flooding risks in four river basins (Grand, Humber, Rideau, and Upper Thames) of southern Ontario, C