【正文】 but training in using those skills takes place “on the job”, by means of such activities as job rotation and planned experience. It is always difficult to evaluate the costs and savings of a training programme. The success of depends not only on the methods used but also on the quality of the staff who do the training. A pany can often check on savings in time and cost by examining the manual work performed by operators and technicians who have pleted a training programme. The evaluation of management and supervisory training is much more plex than that. In order to test the results of management and supervisory training, many panies have looked at such things as the number of management and supervisory staff who leave their employment and the number who stay away from work for reasons of health. 49. According to the passage, an analysis of training needs is based on __D_____. A. the performance required for a general job B. the knowledge and skills expected in a person C. the costs and savings of a training programmer D. both the performance and knowledge and skills expected in a job 50. The training specification mentions exactly what to teach and __B_____. A. where to teach B. what methods to use C. when to teach D. why to teach 51. From the passage, we learn that “training in using them” takes place ___C____. A. in the classroom B. in the laboratory C. on the job D. at the training department 52. A pany can assess the savings of a training programme by _D___B___. A. evaluating the manual work of supervisors B. evaluating the manual work of technicians C. examining the number of operators who leave their employment D. examining the number of technicians who stay away for health reasons Passage 5 A futurologist is an expert who is paid a lot of money to predict what is going to happen in the marketplace over the next five, ten or twenty years. What will the consumers want? What will they be willing to pay for? What will their preferences be? When listening to a futurologist, you should always remember President Kennedy’s words after he allowed himself to be talked into the disastrous failure of his Cuban invasion: “Never trust the experts.” But you don’t really have to trust a futurologist. Just take what he has to say with a pinch of salt. He is not dealing in facts and figures, but in attitudes and social movements. It is all very imprecise, more like poetry than economics. The vocabulary they use could be useful if you want to open a conversation. The Independent newspaper interviewed three futurologists. Here is what they had to say. Ian Christie of the Henley Centre for Forecasting, London, talks of a deliberate downshift. Bu this, he means that people are being very careful with their money and are reducing their debt. They hesitate before buying anything new. With their houses, they adopt an attitude which he calls improvedon’tmove. They assume that a married couple can get by with one car, and with none in some cases. Secondly, he points to rural revolt. By this, he means that people are moving back into the city. They no longer wish to drive long distances, and they would like the choice that the city provides. Town centre will bee interesting again, and central high streets will be redeveloped as people bee bored with outoftown shopping malls. Mathias Horx of Trendburo, Hamburg, talks of the homesickness trend. He thinks that people have vee homesick for the basic things in life that give them fort. Consequently, he thinks there is huge potential for anything which is homerelated, whether it is wellconstructed furniture or freshfood products. He thinks that the new consumer is not looking for more and better, but for less and even better. Some of this he relates to downshifting, but also to more sophisticated consumer habits. People will not want lots of products, but will try to streamline what they have. There is also, he adds, a sense of nostalgia and a desire for authenticity. In that case, people will be looking for longterm, wellestablished brands rather than fashion labels. Faith Popcorn of Brainreserve, New York, talks of employees starting to cash out, she says, “People are asking themselves why they should spend 10 or 20 years of their lives working with people they don’t like, respect of trust. They are going to be looking to work from home or perhaps from a small office in their neighborhood with friends or members of their family. What these people want is more control over their lives, more agreeable working conditions and a general sense of happiness in what they’re doing.” Ms Popcorn talks of anchoring, which means that people are looking for something to hold on to. This she thinks is some system of beliefs which will give people security in the stress of their lives. It also means, perhaps, that they will fall for any leader who es along and promises “everlasting happiness.” Lastly, she talks of cocooning, in which people didn’t want to go out any more to clubs and restaurants but were more interested in staying home. Now, she thinks there is an armored cocoon. People are too scared to go out. They invest in expensive security and expect the services to e to them. Everything is based around home delivery. The armored cocoon is reinforced by the existence of cyberspace: infotainment delivered by satellite and cable. 53. It can be concluded that President Kennedy __B_____. A. didn’t listen to the experts on Cuban invasion B. was persuaded into the invasion of Cuba C. is remembered as an expert himself D. considered himself successful in the Cuban invasion. 54. we can regard the futurologists forecast as ___D____. A. poetic description B. official statistics C. results of economic researches D. statements of public tendency 55. According to Ian Christie, people will