簡析通貨膨脹對企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理的影響及對策畢業(yè)論文-wenkub.com
2025-06-24 21:45 本頁面
【正文】 當(dāng)通貨膨脹率驟然提高時(shí), 將會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性,導(dǎo)致較低的預(yù)期收益和較低的股價(jià) 。從通貨膨脹的相當(dāng)長一段時(shí)間來看，普通股票往往是一個(gè)很好的投資項(xiàng)目。通貨膨脹影響固定收益投資的另一種方式是當(dāng)通貨膨脹上升,利率也會上升。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,名義利率反映市場的預(yù)期通貨膨脹率:上升的名義利率表明通貨膨脹率預(yù)計(jì)會上升,當(dāng)利率下降表明通貨膨脹率預(yù)計(jì)下降。如果通貨膨脹率為3%,每年的主要價(jià)值調(diào)整通貨膨脹后會降到大約84美元 。許多投資者購買固定收益證券,因?yàn)樗麄兿Ｍ幸粋€(gè)穩(wěn)定的收入流,而以利息的形式支付。大多數(shù)投資者的長期目標(biāo)是增加他們的購買力。在這一點(diǎn)上,通貨膨脹率通常下降。積極向上的價(jià)格螺旋,有時(shí)被稱為失控”，這是通貨膨脹的結(jié)果。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者花更多的錢在購買商品和服務(wù)上。 How Does Inflation Affect Investment Returns?Inflation poses a “stealth” threat to investors because it chips away at real savings and investment returns. Most investors aim to increase their longterm purchasing power. Inflation puts this goal at risk because investment returns must first keep up with the rate of inflation in order to increase real purchasing power. For example, an investment that returns 2% before inflation in an environment of 3% inflation will actually produce a negative return (1%) when adjusted for inflation. If investors do not protect their portfolios, inflation can be harmful to fixedine returns, in particular. Many investors buy fixedine securities because they want a stable ine stream, which es in the form of interest, or coupon, payments. However, because the rate of interest, or coupon, on most fixedine securities remains the same until maturity, the purchasing power of the interest payments declines as inflation rises. In much the same way, rising inflation erodes the value of the principal on fixedine securities. Suppose an investor buys a fiveyear bond with a principal value of $100. If the rate of inflation is 3% annually, the value of the principal adjusted for inflation will sink to about $84 over the fiveyear term of the bond. Because of inflation’s impact, the interest rate on a fixedine security can be expressed in two ways.? The nominal, or stated, interest rate is the rate of interest on a bond without any adjustment for inflation. The nominal interest rate reflects two factors: the rate of interest that would prevail if inflation were zero (the real rate of interest, below), and the expected rate of inflation, which shows that investors demand to be pensated for the loss of return due to inflation. Most economists believe that nominal interest rates reflect the market’s expectations for inflation: Rising nominal interest rates indicate that inflation is expected to climb, while falling rates indicate that inflation is expected to drop.? The real interest rate on an asset is the nominal rate minus the rate of inflation. Because it takes inflation into account, the real interest rate is more indicative of the growth in the investor’s purchasing power. If a bond has a nominal interest rate of 5% and inflation is 2%, the real interest rate is 3%. Inflation can adversely affect fixedine investments in another way. When inflation rises, interest rates also tend to rise either due to market expectations of higher inflation or because the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in an attempt to fight inflation. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Thus, inflation may lead to a fall in bond prices, potentially reducing total returns on bonds.Unlike bonds, some assets rise in price as inflation rises. Price rises can sometimes offset the negative impact of inflation:? Common stocks have often been a good investment relative to inflation over the very long term, because panies can raise prices for their products when their costs increase in an inflationary environment. Higher prices may translate into higher
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