宏觀經濟學課件(2)-wenkub.com
2025-01-17 04:18 本頁面
【正文】 2022 SouthWestern Summary ? The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment described by the Phillips curve holds only in the short run. ? The longrun Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrificeratio could be much smaller than estimated. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION ? To reduce inflation, an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output. ? When the Fed bats inflation, the economy moves down the shortrun Phillips curve. ? The economy experiences lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS ? In the 1970s, policymakers faced two choices when OPEC cut output and raised worldwide prices of petroleum. ? Fight the unemployment battle by expanding aggregate demand and accelerate inflation. ? Fight inflation by contracting aggregate demand and endure even higher unemployment. Figure 9 The Supply Shocks of the 1970s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1972 1975 1981 1976 1978 1979 1980 1973 1974 1977 Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS ? Historical events have shown that the shortrun Phillips curve can shift due to changes in expectations. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Natural Experiment for the NaturalRate Hypothesis ? The view that unemployment eventually returns to its natural rate, regardless of the rate of inflation, is called the naturalrate hypothesis. ? Historical observations support the naturalrate hypothesis. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Expectations and the ShortRun Phillips Curve ? Expected inflation measures how much people expect the overall price level to change. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS ? The Phillips curve seems to offer policymakers a menu of possible inflation and unemployment outes. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern 35 The ShortRun Tradeoff(權衡 ) between Inflation and Unemployment Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Unemployment and Inflation ? The natural rate of unemployment depends on various features of the labor market. ? Examples include minimumwage laws, the market power of unions, the role of efficiency wages, and the effectiveness of job search. ? The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed. Copyright 16
教學課件相關推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號-1