【正文】 BCG analysis 28 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI STAGED PRODUCT INTRODUCTION NECESSARY TO MANAGE QUALITY Hypothesized Product Introductions Voice Data 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx Phase I amp。 3 times Fuzhou estimate for cities 510 (2) Assumes no local voice revenue through 20xx 25 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI ENTERPRISE SOLUTIONS BUSINESS MODEL MOST COMPLEX WITH HIGH CAPEX AND OPEX REQUIREMENTS... Building metropolitan fiber rings to offer access to medium and large businesses poses significant challenge ? Operating expenses required dwarfs long haul work costs on a per city basis ? Complexity in obtaining nightofway varies by districts within each city ? Designing fiber route and work configuration requires significant experience Converting customers to full CNC service may not be as easy as it seems on surface ? Initial risk for panies utilizing new entrant ? Coverage issues for offering service to all business locations ? Experienced salesforce with established relationships a must 26 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI … BUT COMPRISES TREMENDOUS UPSIDE POTENTIAL 0204060801001201401601802001998 20xx 20xxInter Access Leased Lines ILD DLD Local 0510152025303520xx 20xxOther Portal Broadband Content Web Hosting/ Collocation Existing Services Emerging Services 9804 CAGR 124% 40% 10% 7% 11% IP VPN Broadband Network Applications 71% 83% 186% 98% 111% 286% 0004 CAGR Market size (RMB BN) Market size (RMB BN) 78 96 187 Overall 16% Overall 86% 3 32 Source: CNC team inputs。 foreign benchmarks。 various benchmarks。 attempt to obtain blanket policy from MII International gateway license and connectivity Settlement charges mensurate with VOIP pricing Development of business off strategy ?Scalable “dialaround” solutions in short term ? Equal access longer term Quality of service for voice, must approach switched quality rapidly Point of diminishing returns for adding VOIP gateways vs. strategic value of providing coverage (1) Highly sensitive to settlement fees 10 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI LARGE MARKET WITH POTENTIAL TO GAIN SHARE QUICKLY New entrants typically gain share quickly Example: IDD and DLD services Market sizeable off traffic accounts for ~15% of total DLD/ILD revenue by 20xx Source: China Tele annual reports。 time to market critical Commitment to utilizing IP/DWDM invlolves risk to mobile carrier business ?RFP to vendors should be based on product requirements vs. technology Staging of investments and service launch must consider tradeoff between quality of service and coverage Preliminary talks with international carriers should begin ASAP Scenario modeling will help us decide where to focus Overarching question: Can CNC successfully pursue all opportunities outlined in the short/medium term? (1) Assuming settlement fees of 10% of revenue 5 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI Overall approach Where How BUSINESS MODELS SUMMARY: THREE CORE ELEMENTS Enterprise Solutions Capture data growth in key business centers with leadingedge products and superior customer service Top business districts in major urban areas。 only the most dense areas in short term Focused Deployment ? Leverage existing conduits to lay in major urban areas Superior service and bandwidth ? Target CT’s weakness in service and bandwidth Utilize LMDS in intermediate cities and areas where time to market is critical Wholesale/Carrier Target mobile carriers and ISPs with backbone transport。 CNC’s team inputs。 BCG analysis Voice revenue Share assumptions 012341999 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xxCNC Revenue (RMB BN) OffNet DLD % of total CNC revenue 100% 76% 37% 30% 23% 16% OffNet ILD International Termination 1999 3% 80% 1% 3% 80% 1% 5% 80% 0% OffNet DLD Off share of total DLD Geographic coverage of CNC CNC share within coverage OffNet ILD Off share of total ILD Geographic coverage of CNC CNC share within coverage International Termination IP share of total Geographic coverage of CNC CNC share within coverage 20xx 10% 60% 25% 11% 60% 25% 11% 60% 20% 20xx 17% 75% 29% 18% 75% 29% 18% 75% 25% 20xx 23% 90% 33% 26% 90% 33% 24% 90% 30% 20xx 30% 100% 30% 33% 100% 30% 30% 100% 30% 20xx 32% 100% 28% 35% 100% 28% 35% 100% 31% 13 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI PRELIMINARY ECONOMICS FOR LONG DISTANCE VOICE MODEL (PHASE I BUILDOUT) VOIP Revenue Alone Justifies Building Backbone 2 3 0 0 1 4 0 03700 7 0 0740 5 0 0570 1 0 0 4 9 0 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 00100020xx3000400050005 year PV(1) (M RMB) CapEX OpEx Revenue 5 year NPV15%: ~ 500M RMB 5 year