【正文】 values of the model parameters are then obtained as follows: –b – b2 – 4ac N = –––––––––––––– 2c a p = –– N q = p + b To be consistent with the model, N 0, b 0, and c 0.,2024/11/18,58,Forecasting Using the Bass Model—Room Temperature Control Unit,Cumulative Quarter Sales Sales Market Size = 16,000 (At Start Price) 0 0 0 1 160 160 Innovation Rate = 0.01 4 425 1,118 (Parameter p) 8 1,234 4,678 12 1,646 11,166 Imitation Rate = 0.41 16 555 15,106 (Parameter q) 20 78 15,890 24 9 15,987 Initial Price = $400 28 1 15,999 32 0 16,000 Final Price = $400 36 0 16,000 Example computations n(t) = pN + (q–p) N(t–1) – q N(t–1) 2/N Sales in Quarter 1 = 0.01 ??16,000 + (0.41–0.01) ? 0 – (0.41/16,000) ? (0)2 = 160 Sales in Quarter 2 = 0.01 ? 16,000 + (0.40) ? 160 – (0.41/16,000) ? (160)2 = 223.35,,2024/11/18,59,Factors Affecting the Rate of Diffusion,Productrelated High relative advantage over existing products High degree of compatibility with existing approaches Low complexity Can be tried on a limited basis Benefits are observable Marketrelated Type of innovation adoption decision (eg, does it involve switching from familiar way of doing things?) Communication channels used Nature of “l(fā)inks” among market participants Nature and effect of promotional efforts,2024/11/18,60,where F(t) is the cumulative fraction of adopters at time t p is the innovation factor q is the imitation factor,where f(t) is the rate of diffusion at time t p is the innovation factor q is the imitation factor,From “Managing technology and innovation for competitive advantage“, V. K. Narayanan (2001), Prentice Hall, page 101.,Predicting the speed of technology: Forumlas,The Bass model of technology diffusion,Air Conditioner,Room air conditioner,p: 0.008 q: 0.356,p: 0.01 q: 0.42,Telephone answering device,p: 0.025 q: 0.406,Black amp。 White TV,p: 0.028 q: 0.25,2024/11/18,62,Black amp。 White TV (2),p: 0.108 q: 0.231,Cable television,p: 0.1 q: 0.06,Calculators,p: 0.143 q: 0.52,Camcorder,p: 0.044 q: 0.304,2024/11/18,63,CD player 19861996,p: 0.055 q: 0.378,Cellular telephone 19861996,p: 0.008 q: 0.421,Electric coffee maker 19551965,p: 0.001 q: 0.302,Colour TV,p: 0.005 q: 0.84,2024/11/18,64,Common Scope of Diffusion Research,Characteristics of an innovation which may influence its adoption Decisionmaking process that occurs when individuals consider adopting a new innovation The characteristics of individuals that make them likely to adopt the innovation The consequences for individuals and society of adopting the innovation Communication channels used in the adoption process,2024/11/18,65,Adopter Categories,People fall into one of five categories of adopters or nonadopters.,Diffusion of Innovation, Rogers, 1983,Innovators,Early Adopters,Early Majority,Late Majority,Laggards,2.5%,13.5%,,34%,34%,16%,,2024/11/18,66,2024/11/18,67,Diffusion of technologydriven products may be even more challenging Moore’s Chasm,Differences in needs make mainstream adopters (buyers) a completely Different Market from the Early Market,2024/11/18,68,Some lessons from the Steel Industry.,INTEGRATED MILLS,MINI MILLS,2024/11/18,69,2024/11/18,70,Employment in the U.S. Steel Industry,2024/11/18,71,Understanding Disruptive Innovation,Time,Performance Measure,MOST DEMANDING CUSTOMERS,LEAST DEMANDING CUSTOMERS,1. In every market, there is a trajectory of improvement that customer can use.,MAIN STREAM CUSTOMERS,Source: Christensen,2024/11/18,72,Sustaining Innovations,Incumbents nearly always win the battles of sustaining innovation.,Time,Performance Measure,MOST DEMANDING CUSTOMERS,LEAST DEMANDING CUSTOMERS,MAIN STREAM CUSTOMERS,Source: Christensen,2024/11/18,73,Disruptive innovations,Time,Performance Measure,MOST DEMANDING CUSTOMERS,LEAST DEMANDING CUSTOMERS,MAIN STREAM CUSTOMERS,Entrants nearly always win the battles of disruptive innovations.,Source: Christensen,Analog to Digital,Caller ID,Digital to Optical,VOIP,How to counter the forces of DISRUPTION?,Disrupt yourself。 before others do.,2024/11/18,75,Some firms have constantly innovated to creatively disrupt themselves.,IBM Electric Typewriter ? Mainframes ? PCs Intel Memory chips ? Microprocessors ? WiFi imbedded EMC Mainframe storage ? Open systems storage ? Open systems software Schwab Discount brokerage ? Online brokerage ? ?,2024/11/18,76,Is your firm ready to move?,Entrepreneurial Behavior,Culture of Discipline,High,Low,High,StartUp,Hierarchical,Bureaucratic,Source: Collins, Good to Great,Innovative,2024/11/18,77,Q amp