【正文】 那么在誤差范圍內(nèi)未來(lái)一年或幾年都可以預(yù)見。從一個(gè)給定趨勢(shì)的偏差也可以進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)新的事件。最有名的是斯米德在1949年進(jìn)行的分析。我們將討論這個(gè)事故類型分析更詳細(xì)的內(nèi)容。該測(cè)試應(yīng)用推廣到高階分類。Foldvary和Lane（1974），在衡量強(qiáng)制佩戴安全帶的效果，誰(shuí)是最早應(yīng)用于值的4路表高階相互作用的總卡方分配的。測(cè)試不局限于總體影響，但卡方值就可以分解模型內(nèi)子假說(shuō)。另外，在雙向表，卡方總可以分解成零件表互動(dòng)的作用。對(duì)1的優(yōu)勢(shì)。和2。比以前的情況是，這對(duì)許多相互關(guān)聯(lián)的（子）表和相應(yīng)的智廣場(chǎng)卡方檢驗(yàn)是由大量分析，取而代之的是一個(gè)一卡方的確切劃分。投入更多關(guān)注的是參數(shù)估計(jì)。例如，在卡方分割使人們有可能以測(cè)試有關(guān)行參數(shù)的線性或二次限制或趨勢(shì)的不連續(xù)性。分析的單位是從數(shù)到廣義加權(quán)計(jì)數(shù)。這對(duì)于道路安全分析，那里一段時(shí)間，道路使用者的數(shù)量，地點(diǎn)或公里數(shù)的車輛往往是必要的修正有利。最后一個(gè)選項(xiàng)是沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)在許多統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件包。安徒生1977年給出了一個(gè)用于道路雙向安全分析表的例子。工資保障運(yùn)動(dòng)的一個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)程序。這一級(jí)沒有說(shuō)明事故原因分析。它會(huì)嘗試檢測(cè)安全問(wèn)題需要特別注意。所需的基本信息包括事故數(shù)字，來(lái)形容不安全總額，暴露的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并找到一個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況下或（團(tuán)體）道路使用者。交通安全的研究是有關(guān)的事故及其后果的發(fā)生。因此，人們可能會(huì)說(shuō)，研究對(duì)象是意外。然而研究人員的興趣較少集中在這個(gè)最后的結(jié)果本身，而是多在進(jìn)程更多的結(jié)果（或不結(jié)果）的事故。因此，最好是把作為他的研究對(duì)象，在流量的重要事件。一個(gè)在交通意外的過(guò)程，結(jié)果是，該實(shí)際發(fā)生是由研究者未落觀測(cè)研究的主要問(wèn)題。調(diào)查一宗交通意外，他將努力重建了間接來(lái)源的事件，如涉及的道路使用者，所提供的資料或目擊者有關(guān)情況，車輛，道路和司機(jī)的特點(diǎn)。因此這不是科學(xué)獨(dú)特的，也有一個(gè)間接的研究對(duì)象的研究更多的例子。但是，第二個(gè)困難是，該研究的對(duì)象不能被誘發(fā)。有系統(tǒng)的控制實(shí)驗(yàn)手段研究只對(duì)問(wèn)題方面的可能，而不是問(wèn)題本身。間接觀察和缺乏系統(tǒng)的控制組合使調(diào)查人員很難發(fā)現(xiàn)在什么情況下造成事故的因素。雖然研究人員主要是在事故處理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)有興趣，他幾乎完全信息的后果，它的產(chǎn)品，意外。此外，事故背景是復(fù)雜的。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，可分為以下幾個(gè)方面：考慮到交通系統(tǒng)，交通量和組成國(guó)家，道路使用者，他們的速度，天氣條件下，路面情況，車輛，道路使用者和他們的相互作用的演習(xí)，意外可以或無(wú)法預(yù)防。由于發(fā)生事故，也對(duì)這樣的速度和車輛質(zhì)量的因素，大量的不同，碰撞角度，對(duì)道路使用者和他們的脆弱性，影響等位置的保護(hù)，傷害是嚴(yán)重或或多或少物質(zhì)損失是多還是少可觀。雖然這些方面不能獨(dú)立研究從理論的角度看，它也從由此產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果的優(yōu)勢(shì)，區(qū)分交通情況有潛在危險(xiǎn)的數(shù)字，是由有一個(gè)意外的可能性，在這種潛在的危險(xiǎn)局勢(shì)，給定一個(gè)特定事故。這個(gè)概念框架是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)于個(gè)別道路使用者，以及上級(jí)的決定控制器的決定制定的一般基礎(chǔ)。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的數(shù)學(xué)公式，我們需要一個(gè)明確的概率空間的介紹，基本事件（的情況），可能導(dǎo)致事故組成，每個(gè)類型的事件的概率，最終收在一次事故中，最后的具體成果，損失，鑒于事故的類型。另一種方法是看事故特征組合，然后找出關(guān)鍵因素。這種類型的事故分析是通過(guò)分析事故的共組或子群來(lái)開展。事故本身是一個(gè)研究的單位，但也要研究道路因素：道路位置，道路設(shè)計(jì)（如一個(gè)彎道）等。原文出處：SWOV institute for road safety research Leidschendam（會(huì)議記錄），記錄者， AND LIMITATIONS OF ACCIDENTANALYSIS Keyword：Consequences。purposes。describe。Limitations。concerned。Accident Analysis。possibilities Abstraet：Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the(product)evaluation of long term and large scale safety application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for(process)evaluation of special short term and small scale safety is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in bination with background behavioural incident detection, bined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to wellestablished paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical number of these findings are published already this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the a particular carcar accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car ing from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car ing from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after ing almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars ing from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not the moment of the accident there were no 5bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded parked green van disappeared within five minutes, the two other cars that may have been important left without a is hardly possible to observe traffic behaviour under the most relevant condition of an accident occurring, because accidents are very rare events, given the large number of the new video equipment and the recent developments in automatic incident and accident detection, it bees more and more realistic to collect such data at not too high to this type of data that is most essential for a good understanding of the risk increasing factors in traffic, it also important to look at normal traffic behaviour as a reference question about the possibilities and limitations of accident analysis is not lightly cannot speak unambiguously about accident analysis covers a whole range of activities, each originating from a different background and based on different sources of information: national data banks, additional information from other sources, specially collected accident data, behavioural background data answer the question about the possibilities and limitations, we first have to look at the cycle of activities in the area of traffic of these activities are mainly concerned with the safety management of the traffic system, some others are primarily research following steps should be distinguished:description of the problem and its main characteristics。selection and implementation of safety measures。the probability of an accident to occur is independent from the occurrence of previous accidents。the occurrence of accidents is homogeneous in these two assumptions hold, then accidents are Poisson first assumption does not meet much are rare events and therefore not easily influenced by previous some cases where there is a direct causal chain(., when a number of cars run into each