【正文】 5%27%81CY83CY85CY87CY89CY91CY93CY95CY97CY99CY01CY03CYSource: Autodata Man Stanley Research % % % % F vs. GM Cash Flow Source: Company reports Man Stanley Research G M v s F o r d c a s h fl o w 9 m o s 0 3O p e r a ti n g GM FG M / b / (w ) th a n F o r dN e t I n c o m e 0 . 6 0 . 1 0 . 5DA 5 . 2 4 . 0 1 . 2C a p x 4 . 5 5 . 6 1 . 1W / C 0 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 1O p e r a ti n g e x c l u d i n g ti m i n g d i ffe r e n c e s 1 . 0 2 . 9 3 . 9A c c u r e d E x p T i m i n g d i ffe r e n c e s * 3 . 4 1 . 0 2 . 4T o ta l O p e r a ti n g 4 . 4 1 . 9 6 . 3* P e n s i o n O P EB n e t o f p a y m e n ts , w a r r a n ty / i n c e n ti v e a c c r u a l sF Auto PreTax Profit, 19992023E Source: Company Data Man Stanley Research (4, 000)(2, 000)2, 0004, 0006, 0008, 0001999 2023 2023 2023 2023E 2023EF Geographic Pretax Profit: 3Q03 vs. 3Q02 Source: Company reports Man Stanley Research 8004000400800NA Eu r P A G O th e r3Q 02 3Q 03F New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive Man Stanley Research B r an d P r o d u c t I n tr o D ateF o r d F S e r i e s S e p03F o r d F r e e s t a r O c t 03V o l v o S 40 s pr i n g 2023F o r d F r e e s t y l e 2023F o r d M us t a n g f a l l 2023F o r d F i v e H un dr e d l a t e 2023F o r d F ut ur a 2023F New Product Monitor Source: Autodata Man Stanley Research D a y s 39。 S u p p l y C h a n g e(3 0 d a y ra t e ) (Y e a r a g o ) D e c S a l e s Y T D S a l e sF S e r i e s 72 72 1 1 . 7 % 3 . 9 %F r e e s ta r / M o n te r e y 99 81 6 . 2 % 1 1 . 7 %GM/Ford Outlook。 What They Say ? GM expects markets to grow around the world and their market share to grow in every region. ? Ford expects profits to decline in North America. They were not specific but suggest cost issues lingering. ? GM expects European profits to grow by $300400mm($500$700mm pretax) in 2023, while Ford expects profits to grow by $9001,000mm. It is unclear how this profit growth can occur given the difficult market conditions there. DaimlerChrysler ? Product line has been playing defense for some time. Offense needs to get on the field. ? Chrysler faces perceived quality problems. ? Mercedes has actual quality problems. ? Affiliate issues may loom large in 2023. ? Commercial truck business at DCX could be a positive source of earnings for the pany in 2023. DCX Market Share 11%13%15%17%90 CY 93 CY 96 CY 99 CY 02 CY% % % Source: Autodata Man Stanley Research 2 3 . 9 %7 6 . 1 %0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%F Y 0 2DCX Car Lt. Truck Sales As A % of Parent Cars Light Trucks Source: Autodata Man Stanley Research Chrysler DCX Operating Margins Source: Company reports Man Stanley Research 4. 0%2. 0%0. 0%2. 0%4. 0%6. 0%8. 0%10. 0%1999 2023 2023 2023 2023E 2023EChry s l e r T o t a l D CXDCX New / Replacement / Redesigned Products Source: Company Data, Ward’s Automotive Man Stanley Research B r an d P r o d u c t I n tr o D ateCh r y s l e r P a c i f i c a M a r 03Ch r y s l e r Cr o s s f i r e J un 03D o dge D ur a n go N o v 03Ch r y s l e r 300C A pr 04D o dge M a gn um M a y 04J e e p G r a n d Ch e r o ke e N o v 04M e r c e de s M C l a s s 2023M e r c e de s GST 2023Implications ? GM will continue to pursue its “grow our way out” strategy. ? DCX improved cost structure is keeping it in the game. New product is critical to alleviating revenue pressure. ? Foreign OEMs are likely to continue to add capacity in NA. ? Ford likely to be playing defense for one more year. The pany needs to hang on and continue to attack their costs until new product arrives. ? On the bright side, the Big Three product is the best its ever been. Source: Man Stanley Research Suppliers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2023 Source: FactSet Man Stanley Research S U PG P CGTD P HDRRAC TBM G AJC IARMVCDCNBWAA X LLEA40. 0% 20. 0% 0. 0% 20. 0% 40. 0% 60. 0%Dealers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2023 Source: FactSet Man Stanley Research 0. 0% 20. 0% 40. 0% 60. 0% 80. 0% 100. 0% 120. 0%UAGLA DG P IANExpectations: Year Ago vs. Today Source: Man Stanley Research 2023 2023M S S a l e s E s t (m m un i t s ) 15. 9 16. 8P / E o n M S E s t s 9. 5x 10. 5xE V / E B IT D A o n M S E s t s 4. 8x 5. 0x 靜夜四無(wú)鄰，荒居舊業(yè)貧。 , March 7, 2023 雨中黃葉樹(shù)，燈下白頭人。 20:46:2520:46:2520:463/7/2023 8:46:25 PM 1以我獨(dú)沈久，愧君相見(jiàn)頻。 :46:2520:46Mar237Mar23 1故人江海別，幾度隔山川。 20:46:2520:46:2520:46Tuesday, March 7, 2023 1乍見(jiàn)翻疑夢(mèng)，相悲各問(wèn)年。 :46:2520:46:25March 7, 2023 1他鄉(xiāng)生白發(fā)，舊國(guó)見(jiàn)青山。 2023年 3月 7日星期二 下午 8時(shí) 46分 25秒 20:46: 1比不了得就不比，得不到的就不要。 2023年 3月 下午 8時(shí) 46分 :46March 7, 2023 1行動(dòng)出成果，工作出財(cái)富。 2023年 3月 7日星期二 8時(shí) 46分 25秒 20:46:257 March 2023 1做前，能夠環(huán)視四周；做時(shí)，你只能或者最好沿著以腳為起點(diǎn)的射線向前。 下午 8時(shí) 46分 25秒 下午 8時(shí) 46分 20:46: 沒(méi)有失敗，只有暫時(shí)停止成功！。 , March 7, 2023 很多事情努力了未必有結(jié)果，但是不努力卻什么改變也沒(méi)有。 20:46:2520:46:2520:463/7/2023 8:46:25 PM 1成功就是日復(fù)一日那一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)小小努力的積累。 :46:2520:46Mar237Mar23 1世間成事，不求其絕對(duì)圓滿，留一份不足，可得無(wú)限完美。 20:46:2520:46:2520:46Tuesday, March 7, 2023 1不知香積寺，數(shù)里入云峰。 :46:2520:46:25March 7, 2023 1意志堅(jiān)強(qiáng)的人能把世界放在手中像泥塊一樣任意揉捏。 2023年 3月 7日星期二 下午 8時(shí) 46分 25秒 20:46: 1楚塞三湘接，荊門九派通。 2023年 3月 下午 8時(shí) 46分 :46March 7, 2023 1少年十五二十時(shí)，步行奪得胡馬騎。 2023年 3月 7日星期二 8時(shí) 46分 25秒 20:46:257 March 2023 1空山新雨后，天氣晚來(lái)秋。 下午 8時(shí) 46分 25秒 下午 8時(shí) 46分 20:46: 楊柳散和風(fēng)，青山澹吾慮。 , March 7, 2023 閱讀一切好書如同和過(guò)去最杰出的人談話。 20:46:2520:46:2520:463/7/2023 8:46:25 PM 1越是沒(méi)有本領(lǐng)的就越加自命不凡。 :46:2520:46Mar237Mar23 1越是無(wú)能的人，越喜歡挑剔別人的錯(cuò)兒。 20:46:2520:46:2520:46Tuesday, March 7, 2023 1知人者智，自知者明。勝人者有力，自勝者強(qiáng)。 :46:2520:46:25March 7, 2023 1意志堅(jiān)強(qiáng)的人能把世界放在手中像泥塊一樣任意揉捏。 2023年 3月 7日星期二 下午 8時(shí) 46分 2