心理學(xué)、風(fēng)險和投資(1)-資料下載頁
2025-02-13 04:34本頁面
【正文】 Jones geniuses ? Distorting past odds It was always obvious ? Distorting your own past beliefs I always knew it is no better ? Denying the uncertainty of the past Implications for uncertainty of future The Pains of a Close Miss ? Missing a flight Mr. Tees and Mr. Crane were scheduled to leave the airport on different flights, at the same time. They traveled together from town in the same limousine, were caught in a traffic jam, and arrived at the airport 30 minutes after the scheduled departure time of their flights. The Pains of a Close Miss (continued) Mr. Crane is told that his flight left on time Mr. Tees is told that his flight was delayed, and just left five minutes ago Who of them is more upset? Dollarcost averaging Regrets of Omission and Commission Mr. Paul owned shares in pany A. During the past year he considered switching to stocks in pany B, but he decided against it. He now finds that he would have been better off by $20,000 if he had switched to pany B. Mr. Gee owned shares in pany B. During the past year he switched to stocks in pany A. He now finds that he would have been better off by $20,000 if he had kept the stock of pany B. Who is more upset? Mr. Paul Mr. Gee Morals About Regret: ? Less regret from following routine ? A little thinking can be bad for you! Think enough to inoculate against regret ? Regret is a real pain It is costly, but not irrational, to avoid it ? The best protection against regret: the broad view “you win a few…”
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