我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其影響因素的回歸分析畢業(yè)論文-資料下載頁(yè)
2025-08-18 12:39本頁(yè)面
【導(dǎo)讀】1990-2020年我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額、財(cái)政支出、職工工資總額、稅收收入、上期GDP、儲(chǔ)蓄余額這六個(gè)因素在這。20年的歷史數(shù)據(jù)，建立多元線性回歸模型，利用OLS方法進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計(jì)和相應(yīng)的檢驗(yàn)。檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷漠惙讲钚圆⑶也捎脤?duì)數(shù)變換法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行修正，之后再利用White-檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)修正后的模型已經(jīng)不存在存。在異方差性；通過(guò)學(xué)生化殘差分析法對(duì)異常值進(jìn)行診斷；用拉格朗日乘數(shù)方法檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)模型存在二階。自相關(guān)性并通過(guò)迭代法消除了序列相關(guān)性；經(jīng)過(guò)這一系列的檢驗(yàn)和修正，保證了變量能夠滿足多元線性回歸模型的。國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的最為主要的因素有進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額、職工工資總額和上期國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值。所以自從1985年國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局建立起相應(yīng)的核算制度以來(lái)，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值核算已經(jīng)成為。通過(guò)定性描述和定量分析國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響因素，從而可對(duì)影響國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的。影響因素以及它們各自的影響程度做出較為準(zhǔn)確的判斷。因此本文在分析我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值時(shí)選取了進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額1X、財(cái)政支出總額
【正文】 ina Mingming Zhang (Grade11, Class1, Major in Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics And Computer Science, Shaanxi University of Technology, Hanzhong 723000, Shaanxi) Xiaokang Li Abstract: In order to explore the influencing factors of China39。s gross domestic product, this paper is mainly from the point view of macro economy bined with our specific national conditions selected from 1990 to 2020 China39。s import and export trade volume, fiscal expenditure, total wages of staff and workers, tax revenue, the previous GDP and savings balance of the six factors in the 20 years of historical 陜西理工學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文 第 16 頁(yè) 共 20 頁(yè) data, established multiple linear regression model, take the parameter estimation and the corresponding inspection using OLS (least squares) method. In the examination we found that the model exist the multicollinearity, we choose the stepwise regression method to eliminate irrelevant variables so as to eliminate the multicollinearity among variables。 using the rank correlation coefficient to test the heteroskedasticity of the model .And it is corrected by the logarithmic transformation method. Then we found that the model after correction does not exist heteroscedasticity by White test。 using the Studentized Residual analysis method to diagnose the abnormal value。 we found that the model existent two order autocorrelation by Lagrange multiplier method (GB test)and eliminate the autocorrelation using the iterative method 。 these variables can meet the basic assuming of the multivariate linear regression model as these series of test and modify. By calculating the relative error of actual data between the Predictive value of each model in 20 years, the final model is determined as the fourth model. Finally we e to the conclusion: import and export trade volume, total wages of staff and workers and the period of gross domestic product are mainly effect the China39。s gross domestic product . Keywords:GDP, stepwise regression, multiple linear regression, multivariate variance, multivariate weighted least square method. 陜西理工學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文 第 17 頁(yè) 共 20 頁(yè) 附錄 A 表 1A 1990~2020 我國(guó) GDP 數(shù)據(jù)（單位 /億元） 年份 GDP 進(jìn)出口額 財(cái)政支出 職工工資總額 稅收收入 上期 GDP 儲(chǔ)蓄余額 1990 1991 1610 1992 1993 11271 1994 1995 8100 1996 9080 1997 78973 1998 78973 1999 2020 2020 200 2020 35119 2020 2020 2020 2020 28244 2020 33714 2020 —— 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒 表 2A 歷史數(shù)據(jù)殘差表 （單位 /億元） 年份 GDP 進(jìn)出口額 財(cái)政支出 職工工資總額 稅收收入 上期 GDP 儲(chǔ)蓄余額 殘差 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2020 2020 200 陜西理工學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文 第 18 頁(yè) 共 20 頁(yè) 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 表 3A 自變量的各種殘差值 （單位 /億元） 年份 GDP 進(jìn)出口額 職工工資總額 上期 GDP RES_1 DRE_1 SRE_1 SDR_1 COO_1 LEV_1 1990 18667.80 16992.30 766 13 93 12 .04597 .06442 1991 21781.50 18667.80 829 16 1 2 .03069 .06608 1992 26923.50 21781.50 026 47 7 7 .01109 .07248 1993 35333.90 11271.0 26923.50 3 .23679 .22967 .00237 .09462 1994 48197.90 20381.9 35333.90 59 4 .42709 .41591 .01455 .19191 1995 60793.70 23499.9 48197.90 88 6 .47105 .45929 .01443 .15640 1996 71176.60 24133.8 60793.70 94 2 .45091 .43939 .00749 .07843 1997 78973.00 26967.2 71176.60 6 .25914 .25144 .00144 .02883 1998 84402.30 26849.7 78973.00 29 2 .55236 .53999 .01498 .11419 1999 89677.10 29896.2 84402.30 5 4 .36132 .35128 .00697 .12608 2000 99214.60 39273.2 89677.10 28 5 .76523 .75487 .02332 .08740 2001 109655.20 42183.6 99214.60 15 8 2 8 .04614 .09445 200 120332.70 51378.2 109655.20 8 .26675 .25886 .00267 .08069 2003 135822.80 70483.5 120332.70 30 9 6 1 .00204 .04109 2004 159878.30 95539.1 135822.80 90 4 4 5 .00023 .07128 2005 184937.40 116921.8 159878.30 475 93 36 08 .14286 .12802 200 216314 140971 184937 .29709 .185陜西理工學(xué)院畢業(yè)論文 第 19 頁(yè) 共 20 頁(yè) 6 .40 .5 .40 871 97 98 92 89 2007 265810.30 166740.2 216314.40 29 6 9 6 .42755 .29543 2008 314045.40 179921.5 265810.30 12 3 4 0 .28297 .22197 2009 340506.90 150648.1 314045.40 630 192 77 24 34 .80034
研究報(bào)告相關(guān)推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號(hào)-1