【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 rs, and high logistics costs. This can be a good strategy if market demand exists for your product。 when demand drops, the producer is left with expensive excess capacity. If the facilities are flexible, production of popular models can continue to prepare product for export. If facilities are inflexible or all sales are flat, then the producer must bear the cost or shed assets.汽車制造商通常采取多工廠的戰(zhàn)略來建造服務(wù)設(shè)施。這些設(shè)施為他們所在位置的市場提供商品，因此可以利用稅率的優(yōu)惠，當?shù)匦枨蟮膬?yōu)勢并且避免了關(guān)稅壁壘和高昂的物流成本，如果市場的需求存在于這些產(chǎn)品中，這將是一個很好的戰(zhàn)略。當需求下降，生產(chǎn)者就剩下昂貴的過剩產(chǎn)能，如果設(shè)備是柔性的,通用模型的產(chǎn)品可繼續(xù)為出口而準備生產(chǎn)。如果設(shè)備是非柔性的或所有的銷售是平穩(wěn)的，那么銷售商必須承擔(dān)花銷或者剝離資產(chǎn)。第6章 設(shè)計全球供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)1. 為什么在評估供應(yīng)鏈設(shè)計決策時考慮不確定性是非常重要的？There is little in life that is certain, so it is important to consider the impact that uncertainty has on the supply chain. Modeling techniques discussed in this text require assumptions about future demand, price structures, paradigms, etc. It is safe to say that most assumptions that we make in using these models are false。 we are permitted to apply these models because the assumptions occasionally are not false enough to make a difference. The supply chain decisions that must be made require considerable investments that cannot be changed or rescinded in the short run without incurring losses. It is important for the decision maker to weigh all alternatives and the uncertainties attached to the events that the future holds in order to arrive at the best decision.沒有在生活中是確定的,所以重要的是要考慮這種不確定性對供應(yīng)鏈的影響。建模技術(shù)在本文討論需要假設(shè)未來的需求,價格結(jié)構(gòu)范式等?？梢钥隙ǖ卣f,大多數(shù)假設(shè)我們在使用這些模型是錯誤的,我們被允許應(yīng)用這些模型,因為偶爾的假設(shè)不是假足以產(chǎn)生影響。 供應(yīng)鏈決策,必須需要相當大的投資, 在短期內(nèi)不能改變或撤銷不遭受損失。很重要的決策者權(quán)衡所有備選方案和未來的不確定性附加到事件以到達最好的決定。2. 能夠影響供應(yīng)鏈決策價值的主要的不確定性的來源是什么The major sources of uncertainty are fluctuations in demand and price. These may vary for a number of reasons。 Porter’s five forces model suggests that the presence or absence of substitute goods and services, the threat of existing petitors, of new petitors and the bargaining power of customers will affect a pany’s existing product. Prices may fluctuate according to supply and demand, changes in tariffs and exchange rates, and inflation.不確定性的主要來源是波動的需求和價格。這些可能會有所不同的原因：波特的五種力量模型表明，替代產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的存在與否，現(xiàn)有競爭對手的威脅,新的競爭對手和客戶的議價能力將會影響公司的現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品。根據(jù)供給和需求價格可能波動，關(guān)稅和匯率的變化，以及通貨膨脹。第7章 供應(yīng)鏈的需求預(yù)測？Collaborative forecasting requires all supply chain partners to share information regarding parameters that might affect demand, such as the timing and magnitude of promotions. Dell could share with their ponents suppliers all of the promotions, ., holiday, backtoschool, etc., they have planned. These suppliers could, in turn, notify their suppliers of discrete ponents that a spike in demand is anticipated. These demand forecasts for end items determine the demand for ponents and coupled with knowledge of fabrication times, allows all members of the supply chain to provide the right quantity at the right time to their customers.協(xié)作預(yù)測要求所有的供應(yīng)鏈合作伙伴共享有關(guān)可能影響需求的參數(shù)，如促銷活動的時間和幅度信息。戴爾可能有計劃的與他們的零部件供應(yīng)商分享所有的促銷活動，例如假期，回校上課等等。反過來，這些供應(yīng)商可能會通知他們的供應(yīng)商，在需求峰值預(yù)計分立元件。這些需求預(yù)測最終的項目是確定組件的需求，再加上制造時代的知識，使供應(yīng)鏈上的所有成員向他們的客戶在正確的時間提供正確的數(shù)量。，會出現(xiàn)什么問題？Last year’s sales data is fine as long as there were no stock outs. If an item is not on the shelf or is explicitly indicated as being sold out, the manager may be blissfully unaware of customer demand that existed but was not expressed. Also, if there were special promotions last year that are not planned for the following year, the data must be adjusted to acmodate this factor. 去年的銷售數(shù)據(jù)很好，因為沒有缺貨。如果一個產(chǎn)品沒有放在貨架上或者明確指出已經(jīng)銷售完，管理人員可能不會察覺到那些存在但沒有表達的客戶需求。同時，如果去年有沒有為第二年計劃的特別促銷，那么為了適應(yīng)這一因素，數(shù)據(jù)肯定需要調(diào)整。第8章 供應(yīng)鏈綜合計劃？The major cost categories needed as inputs for aggregate planning are production costs and inventory costs. Production costs include labor costs of regular and overtime, costs of subcontracting production, costs of changing capacity by hiring or laying off workforce and increasing or reducing machine capacity. Inventory costs include the cost of having too much (storage costs per period) and too little (backorder or stockout costs).需要輸入的成本類型有生產(chǎn)成本和庫存成本。生產(chǎn)成本包括正常人工成本、加班人工成本、轉(zhuǎn)包生產(chǎn)成本和產(chǎn)能變更成本。其中產(chǎn)能變更成本具體包括招聘或解雇工人的成本和增加或減少機器產(chǎn)能的成本。庫存成本包括過多（每周期存儲成本）和過少（延期交貨或缺貨成本）。，需要考慮的一些關(guān)鍵因素有哪些？While planning is done at the aggregate level, it is important that the aggregate unit be identified in a way that when the final production schedule is built, the results of the aggregate plan reflect what can be acplished in practice. Given that the bottleneck is likely to be the most constraining area in any manufacturing facility, it is important to focus on the bottleneck when selecting the aggregate unit and identifying capacity as well as production times. It is also important to account for activities such as setups and maintenance that use up capacity but do not result in any production.而規(guī)劃是在總體水平上，重要的是總的單元被識別的方式，當最后的生產(chǎn)計劃建立，總計劃的結(jié)果反映在實踐中能獲得。鑒于瓶頸可能是在生產(chǎn)設(shè)施最受限制的地區(qū)，集中在選擇集料裝置與識別能力以及生產(chǎn)時間瓶頸的重要。同樣重要的是要考慮設(shè)置和維護，使用能力，不影