【文章內容簡介】 rs, and high logistics costs. This can be a good strategy if market demand exists for your product。 when demand drops, the producer is left with expensive excess capacity. If the facilities are flexible, production of popular models can continue to prepare product for export. If facilities are inflexible or all sales are flat, then the producer must bear the cost or shed assets.汽車制造商通常采取多工廠的戰(zhàn)略來建造服務設施。這些設施為他們所在位置的市場提供商品，因此可以利用稅率的優(yōu)惠，當地需求的優(yōu)勢并且避免了關稅壁壘和高昂的物流成本，如果市場的需求存在于這些產品中，這將是一個很好的戰(zhàn)略。當需求下降，生產者就剩下昂貴的過剩產能，如果設備是柔性的,通用模型的產品可繼續(xù)為出口而準備生產。如果設備是非柔性的或所有的銷售是平穩(wěn)的，那么銷售商必須承擔花銷或者剝離資產。第6章 設計全球供應鏈網絡1. 為什么在評估供應鏈設計決策時考慮不確定性是非常重要的？There is little in life that is certain, so it is important to consider the impact that uncertainty has on the supply chain. Modeling techniques discussed in this text require assumptions about future demand, price structures, paradigms, etc. It is safe to say that most assumptions that we make in using these models are false。 we are permitted to apply these models because the assumptions occasionally are not false enough to make a difference. The supply chain decisions that must be made require considerable investments that cannot be changed or rescinded in the short run without incurring losses. It is important for the decision maker to weigh all alternatives and the uncertainties attached to the events that the future holds in order to arrive at the best decision.沒有在生活中是確定的,所以重要的是要考慮這種不確定性對供應鏈的影響。建模技術在本文討論需要假設未來的需求,價格結構范式等?？梢钥隙ǖ卣f,大多數假設我們在使用這些模型是錯誤的,我們被允許應用這些模型,因為偶爾的假設不是假足以產生影響。 供應鏈決策,必須需要相當大的投資, 在短期內不能改變或撤銷不遭受損失。很重要的決策者權衡所有備選方案和未來的不確定性附加到事件以到達最好的決定。2. 能夠影響供應鏈決策價值的主要的不確定性的來源是什么The major sources of uncertainty are fluctuations in demand and price. These may vary for a number of reasons。 Porter’s five forces model suggests that the presence or absence of substitute goods and services, the threat of existing petitors, of new petitors and the bargaining power of customers will affect a pany’s existing product. Prices may fluctuate according to supply and demand, changes in tariffs and exchange rates, and inflation.不確定性的主要來源是波動的需求和價格。這些可能會有所不同的原因：波特的五種力量模型表明，替代產品和服務的存在與否，現有競爭對手的威脅,新的競爭對手和客戶的議價能力將會影響公司的現有產品。根據供給和需求價格可能波動，關稅和匯率的變化，以及通貨膨脹。第7章 供應鏈的需求預測？Collaborative forecasting requires all supply chain partners to share information regarding parameters that might affect demand, such as the timing and magnitude of promotions. Dell could share with their ponents suppliers all of the promotions, ., holiday, backtoschool, etc., they have planned. These suppliers could, in turn, notify their suppliers of discrete ponents that a spike in demand is anticipated. These demand forecasts for end items determine the demand for ponents and coupled with knowledge of fabrication times, allows all members of the supply chain to provide the right quantity at the right time to their customers.協作預測要求所有的供應鏈合作伙伴共享有關可能影響需求的參數，如促銷活動的時間和幅度信息。戴爾可能有計劃的與他們的零部件供應商分享所有的促銷活動，例如假期，回校上課等等。反過來，這些供應商可能會通知他們的供應商，在需求峰值預計分立元件。這些需求預測最終的項目是確定組件的需求，再加上制造時代的知識，使供應鏈上的所有成員向他們的客戶在正確的時間提供正確的數量。，會出現什么問題？Last year’s sales data is fine as long as there were no stock outs. If an item is not on the shelf or is explicitly indicated as being sold out, the manager may be blissfully unaware of customer demand that existed but was not expressed. Also, if there were special promotions last year that are not planned for the following year, the data must be adjusted to acmodate this factor. 去年的銷售數據很好，因為沒有缺貨。如果一個產品沒有放在貨架上或者明確指出已經銷售完，管理人員可能不會察覺到那些存在但沒有表達的客戶需求。同時，如果去年有沒有為第二年計劃的特別促銷，那么為了適應這一因素，數據肯定需要調整。第8章 供應鏈綜合計劃？The major cost categories needed as inputs for aggregate planning are production costs and inventory costs. Production costs include labor costs of regular and overtime, costs of subcontracting production, costs of changing capacity by hiring or laying off workforce and increasing or reducing machine capacity. Inventory costs include the cost of having too much (storage costs per period) and too little (backorder or stockout costs).需要輸入的成本類型有生產成本和庫存成本。生產成本包括正常人工成本、加班人工成本、轉包生產成本和產能變更成本。其中產能變更成本具體包括招聘或解雇工人的成本和增加或減少機器產能的成本。庫存成本包括過多（每周期存儲成本）和過少（延期交貨或缺貨成本）。，需要考慮的一些關鍵因素有哪些？While planning is done at the aggregate level, it is important that the aggregate unit be identified in a way that when the final production schedule is built, the results of the aggregate plan reflect what can be acplished in practice. Given that the bottleneck is likely to be the most constraining area in any manufacturing facility, it is important to focus on the bottleneck when selecting the aggregate unit and identifying capacity as well as production times. It is also important to account for activities such as setups and maintenance that use up capacity but do not result in any production.而規(guī)劃是在總體水平上，重要的是總的單元被識別的方式，當最后的生產計劃建立，總計劃的結果反映在實踐中能獲得。鑒于瓶頸可能是在生產設施最受限制的地區(qū)，集中在選擇集料裝置與識別能力以及生產時間瓶頸的重要。同樣重要的是要考慮設置和維護，使用能力，不影