【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 e r o o nP a k i s t a nU g a n d aI n d i aI n d o n e s i aI s r a e lM e x i c oB r a z i lP e r uE g y p tS i n g a p o r eU . S .U . K .C a n a d aF r a n c eF i n l a n dJ a p a nD e n m a r kI v o r yC o a s tG e r m a n yI t a l y1 0 0 , 0 0 01 0 , 0 0 01 , 0 0 01 0 01 2 3 40In co me p er p ers o n i n 1 9 9 2(l o g ari t h mi c s ca l e)P o p u l at i o n g ro w t h (p erc en t p er y ea r) (av era g e 1 9 6 0 – 1 9 9 2 )International Evidence on Population Growth and Ine per Person slide 59 The Golden Rule with Population Growth 為了找到資本存量的黃金律 , 我們以 k*將 c* 表示出來 : c* = y* ? i* = f (k* ) ? (? + n) k* c* 是最大的，當(dāng) MPK = ? + n 或者等價(jià)的是 , MPK ? ? = n In the Golden Rule Steady State, the marginal product of capital of depreciation equals the population growth rate. slide 60 Alternative perspectives on population growth 馬爾薩斯模型 The Malthusian Model (1798) ?預(yù)計(jì)人口增長要超過地球生產(chǎn)食物的能力，會(huì)導(dǎo)致人類的災(zāi)荒。 ?從馬爾薩斯時(shí)代以來，世界人口增長了 6倍，然而生活水平卻比以往更高了。 ?馬爾薩斯忽視了技術(shù)進(jìn)步的影響。 slide 61 Alternative perspectives on population growth 克萊曼模型 The Kremerian Model (1993) ?假定人口增長有助于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 ?更多的人 = 更多的天才，科學(xué)家 amp。 工程師，技術(shù)進(jìn)步也就越快。 ?證據(jù) from very long historical periods: ? 當(dāng)世界人口增長率加快時(shí)，生活水平的增長速度也在加快。 ? 從歷史上看，有更多人口的地方，享受更快的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 ?Michael Kremer, ―Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million . to 1990,‖ Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (August 1993): 681716. slide 62 習(xí)題 ? 8 slide 63 slide 64 資本對(duì)人均產(chǎn)出重要嗎 ?資本積累對(duì)東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到重要作用。但是，不同的國家答案不一。 尼日利亞（ 19601985） 中國香港（ 19601985） 岡比亞（ 19601985） 日本（ 19601985） 坦桑尼亞（ 19761990） 人均資本量增長 250%以上 250%以上 500%以上 500%以上 8% 人均產(chǎn)出增長 12% 328% 2% 260% % slide 65 Chapter Summary ? The Solow growth model shows that, in the long run, a country’s standard of living depends ?positively on its saving rate. ?negatively on its population growth rate. ? An increase in the saving rate leads to ?higher output in the long run ?faster growth temporarily ?but not faster steady state growth. slide 66 Chapter Summary ? If the economy has more capital than the Golden Rule level, then reducing saving will increase consumption at all points in time, making all generations better off. ? If the economy has less capital than the Golden Rule level, then increasing saving will increase consumption for future generations, but reduce consumption for the present generation. slide 67 Chapter 5 開放經(jīng)濟(jì) slide 68 在本章你將學(xué)到如下內(nèi)容 ?開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的賬戶恒等式 ?小型開放經(jīng)濟(jì)模型（請(qǐng)大家自學(xué)本章的附錄，大型開放經(jīng)濟(jì)模型） ?何謂 ―小型 ” ?貿(mào)易平衡和匯率是如何決定的？ ?政策是如何影響貿(mào)易平衡和匯率的？ slide 69 Percentage of GDP 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Canada France Germany China Japan . . Imports Exports 出口或進(jìn)口／產(chǎn)出： 2020 slide 70 slide 71 在一個(gè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì) ?國內(nèi)支出不需要等于國內(nèi)產(chǎn)出 ?國內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄不需要等于國內(nèi)投資 slide 72 預(yù)備知識(shí) EX = 出口 = 外國對(duì)本國產(chǎn)品的支出 IM = 進(jìn)口 = C f + I f + G f = 本國對(duì)外國產(chǎn)品的支出 dfC C C??dfI I I??dfG G G??superscripts: d =spending on domestic goods f =spending on foreign goods slide 73 預(yù)備知識(shí) , cont. NX = 凈進(jìn)出口 ( the ―貿(mào)易余額 ” ) = EX – IM ?If NX 0, 該國有 trade surplus 等于 NX ?If NX 0, 該國有 trade deficit 等于 – NX slide 74 GDP = 對(duì)本國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的商品和服務(wù)的支出 d d dY C I G E X? ? ? ?( ) ( ) ( )f f fC C I I G G E X? ? ? ? ? ? ?()f f fC I G E X C I G? ? ? ? ? ? ?C I G EX IM? ? ? ? ?C I G NX? ? ? ?slide 75 一個(gè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的國民收入恒等式 Y = C + I + G + NX or, NX = Y – (C + I + G ) exports domestic spending output slide 76 Trade surpluses and deficits ?trade surplus: output spending amp。 exports imports Size of the trade surplus = NX ?trade deficit: spending output amp。 imports exports Size of the trade deficit = –NX NX = EX – IM = Y – (C + I + G ) slide 77 . exports, 19502020 U . S . N e t E x p o r t s , 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 6 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 002001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2020billions of dollars 8 % 6 % 4 % 2 %0%2%percent of GDPNX ($ b illio ns ) NX (% o f G DP)slide 78 國際資本流動(dòng) ?Net capital outflows ? S – I ? “ 可貸資金 ” 的凈流出 ? 外國資產(chǎn)的凈購買 ? 一國購買外國資產(chǎn)減去外國對(duì)該國資產(chǎn)的購買 ?When S I, 該國是凈債權(quán)國 ?When S I, 該國是凈債務(wù)國 slide 79 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP 20 18 16 14 12 10 1960 1965 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 (a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP) 2020 Domestic investment National saving Copyright 169。 2020 SouthWestern slide 80 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP 4 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 Net capital outflow (b) Net Capital Outflow (as a percentage of GDP) 1960 1965 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 2020 Copyright 169。 2020 SouthWestern slide 81 The link between trade amp。 cap. flows NX = Y – (C + I + G ) 意味著 NX = (Y – C – G ) – I = S – I 貿(mào)易余額 = 凈資本流出 ? 一個(gè)是貿(mào)易赤字 (NX 0)的國家一定是凈債務(wù)國 (S I ). slide 82 “ The world’s largest debtor