【正文】 100 = lo w risk) Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers most stores, with 25 outlets trading under the Billa supermarket banner and six under the Teppich Frick banner. However, petition is intensifying。 Euromoney database。 only six international players have settled there and the retail sector is booming. Russia39。 as the second largest market in Eastern Europe, its potential is significant. Cora (operating under the Profi discount banner) is scheduled to open its first store in 20xx and anticipates growing to 14 stores by the end of the decade. Metro, Tesco, Carrefour and Delhaize (Profi) are plan ning to expand in Romania. The new GRDI entrants this year in Eastern Europe are Slovenia and Latvia. The wealthiest country in Eastern Europe, Slovenia has only two retail players: Mercator and Spar Austria. Latvia is awaiting EU integration and retailers are already quickly expanding. Finland’s Kesko is investing US$50 million to create a work of 50 to 60 discount stores over the next three years. Lidl is planning to expand in Slovenia. Rounding out the ―to consider‖ list of countries is Ukraine with a score of 56. With a population of 49 million, Ukraine is a very attractive market for retailers. GDP and wages are still low, although growing rapidly, and the retail market is highly fragmented. Rewe and Metro are the only retailers in Ukraine building a longterm petitive advantage. However, in terms of time pressure, Ukraine receives a low . . Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers score of 22. We remend entry in Ukraine over the longer term。 hypermarket and The . Kearney Global Retail Development Index ranks 30 emerg The GRDI Methodology inhabitants (20 percent): Modern retail is defined as hypermarkets, (CAGR 1998 to 20xx). The result is ranked from 0 to 100, with 0 ing countries on a 100point scale. The higher the ranking, the more urgent it is to enter a country. The scores are based on the following variables: ? Economic and political risk (40 percent): Based on the Euromoney database, this variable is broken down as follows: political risk (25 percent), economic performance (25 percent), debt indicators (10 per cent), debt in default or rescheduled (10 percent), credit ratings (10 per cent), access to bank finance (5 per cent), access to shortterm finance (5 percent), access to capital markets (5 percent), discount in forfeiting (5 percent). A score of 0 indicates high risk, a score of 100 indicates low risk. ? Modern retail area per 1000 supermarkets and cash and carry stores. A 0 weighting means that the total retail area in the country is high, close to the average Western European level (200 square meters per 1000 inhabitants)。 mod ern retail area per inhabitants (retail saturation level)。 What Do They Think? 52 percent cited the entry model, and 37 percent listed critical size (see fig ure). Timing and flexibility were the factors mentioned as least important for success. Seventy percent of respon dents agreed that breaking even takes 12 to 18 months and reaching a positive return on investment (ROI) takes four to six years. Figure: Summary of interview findings Using those criteria, 70 percent of respondents acknowledged that preliminary financial targets when entering a new market had to be revised downwards within the first year. Finally, 80 percent of respondents agreed that fast expan sion into a new market was the best approach. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 80% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ? ? 70% 20% 10% Fast expansion Slow expansion Wait and see Less than 12 12 to 18 More than 18 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 70% 20% 10% Adapted concept Entry model Critical size Real estate Human resources Innovation Readiness Key perfomance indicators Branding Competitive knowledge Less than 4 Source: . Kearney 4 to 5 5 to 10 . . Timing Flexibility 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers sale of its Jumbo hypermarkets to Ahold. Edeka (EDelikatesen and EDiscount) might also withdraw. : With three billion consumers and some of the most populous countries in the world, Asia remains an attractive region for 20xx. Ahold has withdrawn from the region, leaving retail opportunities up for grabs. China, with billion people, GDP growth of 10 percent, and a nearly 13 percent per year increase in retail space, continues to attract global retailers. But the window of opportunity is closing fast. China lost six points on the index this year, sliding from first to third (see figure 5). There are several reasons for China’s fall: First, new retailers, including NTUC Fair Price (Singapore) and FamilyMart (the number three convenience store in Japan), have arrived on the scene. And under China’s WTO agree ments, foreign firms can hold a controlling stake of up to 65 percent in retail stores. Second, the retail sales density per inhab itant increased as retailers reinforced their positions. The recent SARS outbreak has not discouraged global retailers. Carrefour is con solidating its positions by setting up purchasing centers in 11 Chinese cities, IKEA (not covered by the GRDI) opened in Beijing in May 20xx and Tesco is planning to expand in the country (Tesco acquired the Thailandbased Lotus Super market, whose operations include a successful hypermarket chain in Shanghai). Anot