【正文】 PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy Copyright Information This is a work of the . Government and is in the public domain. It may be freely distributed, copied, and translated。 acknowledgment of publication by the Executive Office of the President (EOP) is appreciated. Any translation should include a disclaimer that the accuracy of the translation is the responsibility of the translator and not EOP. It is requested that a copy of any translation be sent to EOP. This work is available for worldwide use and reuse and under the Creative Commons CC0 Universal license. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT WASHINGTON, . 20502 December 20, 20xx Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology and related fields have opened up new markets and new opportunities for progress in critical areas such as health, education, energy, economic inclusion, social welfare, and the environment. In recent years, machines have surpassed humans in the performance of certain tasks related to intelligence, such as aspects of image recognition. Experts forecast that rapid progress in the field of specialized artificial intelligence will continue. Although it is unlikely that machines will exhibit broadlyapplicable intelligence parable to or exceeding that of humans in the next 20 years, it is to be expected that machines will continue to reach and exceed human performance on more and more tasks. AIdriven automation will continue to create wealth and expand the American economy in the ing years, but, while many will benefit, that growth will not be costless and will be acpanied by changes in the skills that workers need to succeed in the economy, and structural changes in the economy. Aggressive policy action will be needed to help Americans who are disadvantaged by these changes and to ensure that the enormous benefits of AI and automation are developed by and available to all. Following up on the Administration‘s previous report, Preparing for the Future of Artif icial Intelligence, which was published in October 20xx, this report further investigates the effects of AIdriven automation on the . job market and economy, and outlines remended policy responses. This report was produced by a team from the Executive Office of the President including staff from the Council of Economic Advisers, Domestic Policy Council, National Economic Council, Office of Management and Budget, and Office of Science and Technology Policy. The analysis and remendations included herein draw on insights learned over the course of the Future of AI Initiative, which was announced in May of 20xx, and included Federal Government coordination efforts and cross sector and public outreach on AI and related policy matters. Beyond this report, more work remains, to further explore the policy implications of AI. Most notably, AI creates important opportunities in cyberdefense, and can improve systems to detect fraudulent transactions and messages. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AUTOMATION, AND THE ECONOMY Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Economics of AIDriven Automation ................................................................................................................................ 1 Policy Responses ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Outreach and Development of this Report ............................................................................................................................. 5 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Economics of AIDriven Automation ....................................................................................................................................... 8 AI and the Macroeconomy : Technology and Productivity Growth .............................................................................. 8 AI and the Labor Market: Diverse Potential Effects .....................................................................................................10 Historical Effects of Technical Change ...........................................................................................................................11 AI and the Labor Market: The Near Term ......................................................................................................................13 What kind of jobs will AI create? ....................................................................................................................................18 Technology is Not Destiny—Institutions and Policies Are Critical ...........................................................................21 Policy Res ponses ..........................................................................................................................................................................26 Strategy 1: Invest In and Develop AI for its Many Benefits .....................................................................................27 Strategy 2: Educate and Train Americans for Jobs of the Future .............................................................................30 St