【正文】 refine, refine, refine THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 4 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 4 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved MANY ASSETS FOLLOW THE SAME USEFUL OUTPUT PATTERN AS A CAR ... 0 . 00 . 10 . 20 . 30 . 40 . 50 . 60 . 70 . 80 . 91 . 00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Y e a rU s e fu lO u tp u t(o rS u r v i v o r s )Constant Dollar Level Annuity Economic Life Likely Actual Output Output Decline with Straight Line Depreciation THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 5 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 5 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved ISSUES WITH TRADITIONAL RETURN MEASURES (*) Economic depreciation = amount of annual sinkingfund payment earning COC required to replace assets ($357 = {[ 1)](12,000 2,000)}) Investment profile of a new plant Subsequent annual measurement Yr 1 Yr 6 Yr 12 Ine 843 843 843 Depreciation 714 714 714 Cash flow 1,557 1,557 1,557 Cash invested 12,000 12,000 12,000 Book capital 11,286 7,716 3,432 ROCE (%) ROGI (%) 13 13 13 CFROI (%) 10 10 10 ROCE = Ine/book capital ROGI = Cash flow/ cash invested CFROI = (Cash flow economic depreciation(*))/cash invested $12,000 $1,557 $2,000 IRR = 10% THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 6 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 6 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved Yr 1 Yr 6 Yr 12 NOPAT(1) 843 843 843 Book capital(2) 11,286 7,716 3,432 Cost of capital(3) x10% x10% x10% Capital charge(4) 1,129 772 343 EVA(14) (286) 71 500 Cash flow(6) 1,557 1,557 1,557 Cash invested(7) 12,000 12,000 12,000 Cost of capital(8) x10% x10% x10% Capital charge(9) 1,200 1,200 1,200 Economic dep.(*)(10) 357 357 357 CVA(6910) 0 0 0 VALUEADDED MEASURES REFLECT RETURN, COST OF CAPITAL AND SIZE Return on New Plant—Measured Over Time (*) Economic depreciation = amount of annual sinking fund payment earning COC required to replace assets ($357 = {[( 1)](12,000 2,000)}) Investment profile of a new plant $12,000 $1,557 $2,000 IRR = 10% THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 7 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 7 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved A c c o u n t ing M e a s u r e s Fai l( E .P .S . G r o w t h )V a lue L ine Ind u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .0 7051015202530354045501 0 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 E .P .S . G r o w t h 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4Price/EarningsA c c o u n t ing M e a s u r e s Fai l( RO E S p r e a d )V a lue L ine Ind u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .3 30 . 11105 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 RO E min u s CA P M Cost of E q u it yPrice/Equity BookA c c o u n t ing M e a s u r e s Fai l( RO CE S p r e a d )V a lue L ine Ind u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .3 20 . 11102 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 RO CE min u s CA P M Cost of Ca p it a lTotal Capital Price/BookE c o n o mic Ca s h Flo w M e a s u r e s Dou b leA b il it y t o E x p la in V a lueCF RO I S p r e a d V /L In d u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .6 10 . 11101 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CFRO I min u s Di s c o u n t Ra t eValue/Cost THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 8 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 8 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved V a l u e / C o s t V e rs u s R OC E C A P M C o s t o f C a p i t a lV a l u e L i n e I n d u s t ri a l s 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 . 2 80 . 1110 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 R OC E C A P M C o s t o f C a p i t a lValue/CostV a l u e / C os t V e rs u s R O E C A P M C os t of E qu i t yV a l u e Li n e I n du s t ri a l s 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 . 2 60 . 11105 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 R O E C A P M C os of E qu i t yValue/CostE c o n o mic Ca s h Flo w M e a s u r e s Dou b leA b il it y t o E x p la in V a lueCF RO I S p r e a d V /L In d u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .6 10 . 11101 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CFRO I min u s Di s c o u n t Ra t eValue/Cost THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 9 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 9 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved H i g h R e tu r n s F a d e D o w n w a r d a n d L o w R e tu r n s F a d e U p w a r d 。T h e F a d e Pa tte r n O c c u r s N o Ma tte r W h a t th e Sta r ti n g Ye a r . . .A v e r a g e O p e r a ti n g C F R O I b y D e c i l e 1 9 7 0 , 1 9 8 0 o r 1 9 8 71 0505101520251970 1975 1980 1985 1990Ye a rA v e r a g eO p e r a ti n gC F R O I1 D e c i l e2 D e c i l e3 D e c i l e4 D e c i l e5 D e c i l e6 D e c i l e7 D e c i l e8 D e c i l e9 D e c i l e1 0 D e c i l eTracking the Sample of 1970 Companies through time Tracking the Sample of 1980 Companies through time Tracking the Sample of 1987 Companies through time Note the averages dispersions have risen between 19701987, hypothesized