【正文】 The Problem with Programs(方案的問題 ) Manufacturers now hold more finished goods The WalMart Model The Problem with Programs(方案的問題 ) Producers push the problem upstream Of course, producers can pensate for this pressure to some extent by streamlining their internal operations and putting pressure on their own suppliers for more prompt performance, reducing their inventories of raw materials and work in process. And that39。事實上，參與這些方案的企業(yè)之存貨 水準的確是下降了，但是，大部分存貨的減少似乎是將其移轉(zhuǎn)到供應(yīng)鏈的 其他地方，而不是真正地去除掉存貨。s too soon to tell how widely the program will be embraced. CPFR之採納才剛開始 簡言之， CPFR依賴先進、以網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)路為根基的工具管理供需資訊，使交 易夥伴間可以協(xié)調(diào)存貨決策，並讓供應(yīng)鏈中的商品流程更為平順。這個方案的另一個要點是，一個持續(xù)補貨協(xié)議猶如一項有效的採購承 諾 (standing purchase mitment)。一個平衡這些優(yōu)勢的方法是寄售 (consignment)，即委託生產(chǎn)者 保有商品的所有權(quán)與控制零售端的存貨。然而，更重要的是，投入及時制後所顯示大幅降低供應(yīng)鏈 複雜性與變異性所產(chǎn)生的效果。 JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應(yīng)方案 ) Manufacturers are now cautious about JIT Shutdowns such as these can quickly wipe out the savings associated with reduced inventory levels. For a large manufacturer, having a plant shut down can cost as much as $10,000 a minute. Given this kind of financial impact, many firms that adopted JIT wholeheartedly are now rethinking their position and taking a more conservative approach. Honda, for one, now has a policy of maintaining dual suppliers for all its raw materials. Ford, while reaffirming its mitment to its JIT program in the wake of the terrorist attacks, immediately began developing plans to stockpile engines and other key parts at some . plants. 製造商現(xiàn)在非常謹慎採用及時制 類此斷線停工狀況可以很快地侵蝕掉降低存貨水準所帶來的效益。此外，很多文件也不再需要。這樣的做法可以讓製程中的 物料存貨降到最低，讓生產(chǎn)工廠降低存貨持有成本，減少老舊存 貨，並且改善資產(chǎn)報酬率。本章簡單以「賽局理論」 (game theory)探討，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)這些 推動方案有所不足之原因，並指出致勝策略之道：整合供應(yīng)鏈成員成為一 個運作順暢的團隊，確保每位成員的獲勝會帶給其他成員的成功。雖然及時制主要 著重在降低存貨，但這個方法的真正精神還是在於，以系統(tǒng)化方法追求品 質(zhì)的提升，其中一個目標就是消除任何不必要的複雜性。隨即 1年後，七個戴姆勒克萊斯勒 (DaimlerChrysler)工廠 與三個通用汽車工廠，因一個供應(yīng)商遭洪水侵襲，無法供應(yīng)某種零件而被 迫以半天班 (halfshifts)的方式生產(chǎn)。即使在其最適用的領(lǐng)域 ──重複 生產(chǎn)模式 (repetitive production)上，它也不適用於少量或不確定性高的產(chǎn) 品。傳統(tǒng)做法是， 零售商管理自己的存貨，並且根據(jù)他們認為的適合數(shù)量來補貨。生產(chǎn) 商將預(yù)先貼好標籤的產(chǎn)品，以每日出貨的方式由卡車直接配送至銷售場 所。因為是從網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)路商用化後 的第一個全新設(shè)計，協(xié)作規(guī)劃、捨棄電子資料交換 (EDI)與私有網(wǎng)路，而 採用網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)路溝通技術(shù)。s going on here? Are these programs just a sham? No。例如，對想要進入 Wal Mart龐大零售通路的企業(yè)而言，她必須配送大量貨物到許多不同的指定交 貨地點、嚴格遵守交貨時間、保證交貨時間的可靠度、並且需快速回應(yīng) WalMart整個事業(yè)版圖的需求變動。的 確，這就是資料所呈現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)象；因為原物料及半製品存貨的下降，才使製 造商整體存貨沒有上升。 The Problem with Programs(方案的問題 ) Retailers have slashed their inventories The renowned success of WalMart in mastering its supply chain provides a good case in point. Through a variant of the classic vertical integration strategy WalMart has largely eliminated the distributors, carriers, and other middlemen that used to intervene between producers and retail outlets (Figure ). The scale of this effort is staggering: WalMart39。 CPFR已逐漸贏得一些支持者，但目前還太早 去預(yù)測究竟這個方案是否會被廣為採納。s major contribution was the addition of category management, which anizes promotion and replenishment activities around groups of products that consumers view as roughly equivalent in satisfying their needs. This addition helps grocery stores determine the best mix of products to put on their shelves to make sure their customers‘ needs are met even if there are occasional shortages. This program also encourages the use of activitybased costing (described in Chapter 9) to determine the profitability of each product category. 有效消費者回應(yīng)加入品類管理機制 1993年，日用品雜貨產(chǎn)業(yè) (the grocery industry)開啟該產(chǎn)業(yè)自己版本的持續(xù) 補貨系統(tǒng)，也就是所謂的 有效消費者回應(yīng) (efficient Consumer response, ECR)陣 ECR的主要貢獻在於加入 品類管理 (category management)機制，可 以組織消費者視為同類產(chǎn)品的促銷與補貨活動。 Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方 ) Early efforts shifted control of inventory Inventory Management Relationships Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補貨方 ) transfers ownership but not control A more recent development, vendormanaged inventory (VMI),is shown in the middle row of Figure . The innovative aspect of VMI is the way it separates control from ownership, both of which usually transfer at the same time. In VMI, a producer receives continuous updates on a retailer39。s critical to manage it well. If the desired product isn39。本田汽車 (Honda)，其申一例，現(xiàn) 在採用雙供應(yīng)商政策以確保物料的供應(yīng)無虞。 JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應(yīng)方案 ) Consistent performance reduces variability Along with reducing plexity, the JIT philosophy of quality also seeks to reduce variability in every stage of production. To this end, each operation is analyzed, refined, and rehearsed until it can be pleted both quickly and consistently. In the case of supply chains, this level of rigor not only accelerates the movement of goods, it also adds an unprecedented level of precision to deliveries. This precision allows inventories of raw materials to be reduced to a fraction of their normal levels without causing shutdowns on the line. 一致性績效表現(xiàn)可以降低變異性 除了降低複雜性外，及時制品質(zhì)哲學(xué)也尋求降低各個生產(chǎn)階段的變異性 (variability)。然而，在製品存貨通常是其中占最小比率也花費最少 的部分，不過解決另外兩種存貨 (原物料、製成品 )問題必須改變供應(yīng)商交 運原物料與交付顧客製成品的方式。的確，在過去 20年間，大部分的供應(yīng)鏈管理創(chuàng)新，都在企圖讓 需求 (demand)、供應(yīng) (supply)與帳款 (cash)的流程可以簡單，而且穩(wěn)定地進 行。為了支援新生產(chǎn)方案所需的緊密關(guān)係，豐田公司 (Toyota)與其主 要供應(yīng)商間採用了獨特日本型態(tài)的聯(lián)合夥伴關(guān)係 (joint partnership)，稱之 為 企業(yè)團 (keiretsu)。s plant created a shortage of a single part. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2023, many plants in the United States had to be closed due to breakdowns in the transportation system. Ford, for example, shut down five North American plants due to parts shortages, many of them due to delays in bringing trucks across the Canadian border. 及時制可能會使供應(yīng)鏈更脆弱 當然，不是所有變異性的型態(tài)都可以被消除，及時制 (JIT)的弱點在於：及 時制可能會讓供應(yīng)鏈變得非常脆弱，以致於當物品供應(yīng)流程中發(fā)生任何干 擾時，整個供應(yīng)鏈會陷於停擺。 for the right kind of production environment, JIT can lead to dramatic improvements. More important, however, is the way the JIT effort illustrates how much can be done to reduce plexity and variability in supply chains. JIT39。 Retail Replenishment P