【正文】 ply chains, this level of rigor not only accelerates the movement of goods, it also adds an unprecedented level of precision to deliveries. This precision allows inventories of raw materials to be reduced to a fraction of their normal levels without causing shutdowns on the line. 一致性績效表現(xiàn)可以降低變異性 除了降低複雜性外，及時制品質(zhì)哲學(xué)也尋求降低各個生產(chǎn)階段的變異性 (variability)。 JIT Supply Programs(及時制供應(yīng)方案 ) JIT can make supply chains fragile Of course, not every form of variability can be eliminated, and herein lies the downside of JIT: It can make supply chains so fragile that any interruption in the flow of supplies brings the entire chain to a halt. Toyota learned this in 1997 when a fire at one of its suppliers shut down Toyota39。 1997年，豐田公司 (Toyota)在一次發(fā)生在 其供應(yīng)商的火災(zāi)中學(xué)到教訓(xùn)，當(dāng)時讓豐田公司生產(chǎn)線不得不停工整個星 期。例如，福特汽車 (Ford)， 因零件在通過加拿大邊境時發(fā)生延遲而造成短缺，必須暫時關(guān)閉五個北美 的工廠。本田汽車 (Honda)，其申一例，現(xiàn) 在採用雙供應(yīng)商政策以確保物料的供應(yīng)無虞。t work in job shops, which do not use production lines, and it39。s emphasis on simplicity and consistency can be used to advantage at every link of the chain, regardless of whether other aspects of the technique are employed. 簡單化與一致化仍為主要目標(biāo) 即使有適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理機(jī)制，及時制不見得適用於所有的供應(yīng)鏈。用對生產(chǎn)環(huán)境的話，及時制可以帶 來可觀的改善。s critical to manage it well. If the desired product isn39。不過，這也可能是供應(yīng)鏈 中最難以管理的設(shè)施點(diǎn)，因?yàn)榱闶鄣晔俏惶庫陡惺茴櫩推酶淖冇绊懙牡? 一個據(jù)點(diǎn)。s site. Consignment has proved to be an effective tool for selling products that retailers might not be willing to carry on conventional terms, but it39。此外，生產(chǎn)者可藉由補(bǔ)貨程序之中央控制方式來移除連結(jié)上的成本與 不確定性。 Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補(bǔ)貨方 ) Early efforts shifted control of inventory Inventory Management Relationships Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補(bǔ)貨方 ) transfers ownership but not control A more recent development, vendormanaged inventory (VMI),is shown in the middle row of Figure . The innovative aspect of VMI is the way it separates control from ownership, both of which usually transfer at the same time. In VMI, a producer receives continuous updates on a retailer39。這樣的做法讓生產(chǎn)商 可以更清楚地掌握產(chǎn)品的銷售狀況，協(xié)助他們預(yù)測需求並做好供應(yīng)的規(guī) 劃。早期方法之一就是 快速回應(yīng) (quick response, QR)，為 1980年代服飾業(yè)所提出，致力於結(jié)合及時制 (JIT)方法與 即時監(jiān)控存貨狀況的技術(shù)。如圖 ，持續(xù)補(bǔ)貨結(jié)合了 VMI 機(jī)制 以提供更好的存貨管理，它更導(dǎo)入聯(lián)合預(yù)測 (joint forecasting)方法，讓生 產(chǎn)商與零售商可以整合對於顧客需求的瞭解，以更準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測未來的銷售 額。s major contribution was the addition of category management, which anizes promotion and replenishment activities around groups of products that consumers view as roughly equivalent in satisfying their needs. This addition helps grocery stores determine the best mix of products to put on their shelves to make sure their customers‘ needs are met even if there are occasional shortages. This program also encourages the use of activitybased costing (described in Chapter 9) to determine the profitability of each product category. 有效消費(fèi)者回應(yīng)加入品類管理機(jī)制 1993年，日用品雜貨產(chǎn)業(yè) (the grocery industry)開啟該產(chǎn)業(yè)自己版本的持續(xù) 補(bǔ)貨系統(tǒng)，也就是所謂的 有效消費(fèi)者回應(yīng) (efficient Consumer response, ECR)陣 ECR的主要貢獻(xiàn)在於加入 品類管理 (category management)機(jī)制，可 以組織消費(fèi)者視為同類產(chǎn)品的促銷與補(bǔ)貨活動。t employed in the JIT effort. Most notably, the use of real time data on sales allows retailers to respond quickly to variations in consumer buying patterns, and the addition of joint forecasting allows retailers to prepare for some of these shifts before they hit the stores. 這些方案均在對付複雜性與變異性 如前述及時制 (JIT)般，零售補(bǔ)貨方案反映出簡化與穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)鏈流程的持續(xù) 努力。 Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補(bǔ)貨方 ) CPFR is the most ambitious program yet The most ambitious replenishment program to date is collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR), a multiindustry effort that was formalized in 1998 (Figure ). Although CPFR is not a direct extension of any of the preceding programs, it draws on the experience gained with all three. Being the first cleansheet design since the mercialization of the Inter, CPFR abandons EDI and private works in favor of Inter munication. In addition to the direct munication of real time data, trading partners use centralized information servers to view and update shared plans and forecasts. CPFR是迄今企圖心最大的方案 迄今最具企圖心的補(bǔ)貨方案是 協(xié)同規(guī)劃 、 預(yù)測與補(bǔ)貨 (collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment, CPFR)，是 1998年形成的一個跨產(chǎn) 業(yè)力量 (見圖 )。 Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補(bǔ)貨方 ) CPFR is the most ambitious program yet The CPFER Program Retail Replenishment Programs(零售補(bǔ)貨方 ) Adoption of CPFR has just begun In short, the CPPR program relies on advanced, Interbased tools to pool information about demand and supply, allowing trading partners to coordinate their inventory decisions and smooth the flow of goods across the chain. The use of such tools offers important advantages, but it also requires panies to make substantial investments in new technologies. Another obstacle is cultural: CPFR requires panies to share highly detailed information about their operations, and many are reluctant to do that. CPFR is beginning to win converts, but it39。 CPFR已逐漸贏得一些支持者，但目前還太早 去預(yù)測究竟這個方案是否會被廣為採納。這些令人驚訝的成果卻有一個問題 ── 成果可能是不真實(shí)的。但是對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，包括熱切追求零售補(bǔ)貨方案的服飾與日用 品雜貨兩個產(chǎn)業(yè)，在導(dǎo)入各種方案後，存貨水準(zhǔn)仍舊維持不變。s hard on other members of their chains, and it does nothing to make those chains more efficient or petitive overall. These programs may be intended to create a new level of cooperation in the supply chain, bringing panies together as true trading partners, but, as often happens in business, the benefits of that cooperation appear to accrue mostly to the dominant party. 它們只是將存貨移到其他地方 到底發(fā)生了什麼問題呢？難道這些方案只是一些可恥之舉嗎？不是的！問 題比這些來得更為細(xì)微、難以捉摸。 The Problem with Programs(方案的問題 ) Retailers have slashed their inventories The renowned success of WalMart in mastering its supply chain provides a good case in point. Through a variant of the classic vertical integration strategy WalMart has largely eliminated the distributors, carriers, and other middlemen that used to intervene between produce