【正文】 資能力的大?。? ? The Limits from Regulations and Contracts（法律法規(guī)及合同的限制） ? Information Effects（信息效應(yīng)） ? Shareholders’ Preferences（股東偏好） 股利決策 ? 決策因素 階段 1(開發(fā) ) 階段 2(擴張 ) 階段 3(成熟增長 ) 階段 4(衰退 ) 受規(guī)模和其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的限制 相對于公司價值較高 相對于公司價值中等 由于投資項目萎縮，資金需求較低 進行投資，流量為負 相對于公司價值較低 占公司價值的比例上升 相對于公司價值較高 沒有股利發(fā)行新股 沒有或低于股利 增加股利 特殊股利，股票回購 資金需求 產(chǎn)。當(dāng)EBIT增長時，每一元利潤負擔(dān)的固定資本成本就會減少，從而使普通股的 EPS以更快的速度增長，當(dāng) EBIT減少時，每一元利潤負擔(dān)的固定資本成本就會增加，從而使普通股的 EPS以更快的速度下降。 (4)efficient feedback. 融資決策的理論假設(shè)－ EMH ?Information set of past prices ? Information set of publicly available ? All information relevant to a stock ? 有效市場假設(shè) ? Three types of efficient capital markets The weakform of efficiency: today’s price reflects only information on past prices. Pt = Pt1 + Expected return +Random errort 不完全信息、無傳輸滲漏、不完全解讀（能且只能解讀歷史價格信息）、無時滯反饋 The semistrong form of efficiency: today’s price reflects all publicly available information. 不完全信息、無傳輸滲漏、完全解讀、無時滯反饋 The strongform of efficiency: today’s price reflects all information, both public and private. 完全信息、無傳輸滲漏、完全解讀、無時滯反饋 ?implies ? , ? implies ? 融資決策的理論假設(shè)－ EMH ? 資本結(jié)構(gòu) Bonds60% Stocks40% Bonds40% Stocks60% Value of firm Value of firm V ? B + S ? How to maximizing the value of the entire firm? ? what is the ratio of debt to equity that maximizes the shareholders’ interest? 融資決策－資本結(jié)構(gòu) MM Propositions Without Taxes Presuppositions: ? Without taxes 公司在無稅收環(huán)境下運營 ? Perfect market 存在高度完善的資本市場，股票和債券在完全資本市場上的交易意味著：１）沒有交易成本；２）投資者進入和退出市場不受限制；３）所有投資者可以平等、免費獲取市場信息；４）投資者個人和組織可同公司一樣以同等利率借款。 Equate to machine B with a fouryear annuity. Choose the less EAC machine. ::43????????bbaaE A CAE A CBE A CAE A CAAn annuity of $1 a year for three years, discounted at 10%.. Since EACB EACA, Prefer B!!! ? 互斥項目新購買決策－不對稱期限處理：年平均成本法 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 ? 互斥項目設(shè)備更新決策－不對稱期限處理 ? Replacement Decision（設(shè)備更新決策） : when to replace an existing machine with a new one? ? First, calculate the EAC for the new equipment。 投資決策－基本原理 投資學(xué)決策－基本原理 ? 決策依據(jù)：接受凈現(xiàn)值大于 0的投資行為 ? 確定條件下的投資決策 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 估算方法 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流 ? 沉沒成本與機會成本 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? 期限問題（求極限） ? 通貨膨脹問題 ? 互斥項目投資決策 ? 不確定條件下的投資決策 ? 估算方法 ? 從投資角度看，公司價值取決于其創(chuàng)造現(xiàn)金流的能力 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算的不同視角 ? 現(xiàn)金流量表 ? 金融角度的現(xiàn)金流 ? 注意： ? 凈利潤 Net Ine ? 自由現(xiàn)金流 Free Cash Flow(FCF) ? 計算經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流時未考慮應(yīng)收帳款是因為應(yīng)收帳款在凈營運資金的變動額中已經(jīng)考慮了 ? 在中國，現(xiàn)金流量表的編制很少有正確的， “ 其他與經(jīng)營活動有關(guān)的現(xiàn)金流 ” 一項往往很大 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 現(xiàn)金流量表 經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流 凈利潤 ＋折舊 ＋遞延稅款 流動資產(chǎn)和流動負債變動額 －應(yīng)收帳款 －存貨 ＋應(yīng)付帳款 ＋應(yīng)付費用 ＋應(yīng)付票據(jù) 其他 經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流合計 投資活動現(xiàn)金流 －長期資產(chǎn)購置現(xiàn)金支出 ＋長期資產(chǎn)處置現(xiàn)金流入 投資活動現(xiàn)金流合計 融資活動現(xiàn)金流 －到期償付債務(wù)（含到期票據(jù)） ＋新增長期負債 －股利支出 －股票回購 ＋新股發(fā)行 融資活動現(xiàn)金流合計 現(xiàn)金流凈變動額（對應(yīng)資產(chǎn)負債表） 金融視角的現(xiàn)金流 公司現(xiàn)金流 經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流 稅息前利潤 ＋折舊 －當(dāng)期支付稅款 －資本支出 長期資產(chǎn)購置現(xiàn)金支出 －長期資產(chǎn)處置現(xiàn)金流入 －凈營運資金變動額 本年凈營運資金 －上年凈營運資金 合計 公司投資者的現(xiàn)金流 債權(quán)人 利息 ＋到期償付債務(wù) －長期債務(wù)融資 權(quán)益方 紅利 ＋股票（權(quán)）回購 －新股發(fā)行 合計 Calculate from EBIT,not aftertaxation profit, so current taxes should be reduced 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算－增量現(xiàn)金流（ incremental basis） ? Incremental Cash Flows(增量現(xiàn)金流） : in calculating the NPV of a project, only cash flows that are incremental to the project should be used. These cash flows are the changes in the firm’s cash flows that occur as a direct consequences of accepting the project. ? Sunk Costs（沉沒成本） : a cost that has already occurred. Because sunk cost are in the past,they can not be changed by the decision to accept or reject the project. Just as we “l(fā)et bygones be bygones”, we should ignore such costs, that is, sunk costs are not incremental cash outflows. ? Opportunity Costs（機會成本） : If the assets is used in a new project, potential revenues from alternative uses are lost. These lost revenues can meaningfully be viewed as cost. They are called opportunity costs because, by taking the project, the firm foes other opportunities for using the assets. ? Side Effects（關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)） : another difficulty in determining incremental cash flows es from the side effects of the proposed project on other parts of the firm. The most important side effect is erosion. Erosion is the cash flow transferred to a new project from customers and sales of other products of the firm. 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 現(xiàn)金流估算－增量現(xiàn)金流：總結(jié) ? Capital budgeting must be placed on an incremental basis. This means that sunk costs must be ignored, while both opportunity costs and side effects must be considered。這樣，經(jīng)理層只需依據(jù)正的凈現(xiàn)值進行決策，無需關(guān)注不同投資者的消費模式的差異（可以通過在資本市場借入借出進行調(diào)整）； ? (2)給投資者、公司甚至政府提供了一個進行投資決策的比較標(biāo)準(zhǔn)：任何一項投資至少應(yīng)獲得與資本市場投資相同的收益，否則直接投資資本市場獲取機會收益就可。 discount rate 10%. All costs in real term, revenue per year are assumed to be the same, regardless of machine. Which machine should be selected? 43232100$100$100$100$600$$:120$120$120$500$$:?????????BAUnder the same revenue, machine A has lower cost, choose machine A? NO! why? Because machine B has a longer life so perhaps its cost per year is actually lower!!! 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 ? 互斥項目新購買決策－不對稱期限處理：期限匹配法 Method 1: Matching Cycles suppose run the example for 12 years, machine A has 4 plete cycles, and machine B has 3. So parison appropriate. 19 7 1:21 8 8:84c os963c os120120???????????ttPVBPVAFirst replacement occurs at date 3, another cost occurs in PV term. First replacement occurs at date 4, another cost occurs in PV term. Problem: one the number of cycle is high, the amount of calculation is also high. Prefer B!!! 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項目 Method 2: Equivalent Annual Cost(EAC) Equate the single payment of 798,42 to machine A at date 0 with a threeyear annuity。 (3)efficient judgments。 ? Leverage Effects（杠桿效應(yīng)）：在企業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)一定的條件下，從 EBIT中支付的債務(wù)利息和優(yōu)先股股利是