【正文】 ood Price Index a measure of the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of food modities averaged 230 points, down % from its peak in February, but 37% above March last year. Oil, meanwhile, hit $120 a barrel the highest level in more than two years though the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the big factor influencing oil prices currently. Noheless, Zheng isn39。 或許，第一輪、第二輪以及或許會(huì)推出的第三輪量化寬松政策更會(huì)導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果，是世界上兩個(gè)最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的口水戰(zhàn)。 ” 但是斯瓦格表示，讓人民幣進(jìn)一步升值對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)有好處。 “他本可以解釋清楚的是，對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來(lái)說(shuō)，為刺激美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，推行第二輪量化寬松政策的舉措是必要的；此外，該政策在國(guó)際社會(huì)產(chǎn)生的溢出效應(yīng)也是可以掌控的，而美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)更為強(qiáng)勁的復(fù)蘇則會(huì)讓全世界經(jīng)濟(jì)受益。 ” 但是，第二輪量化寬松政策的出臺(tái)時(shí)機(jī)并不 “走運(yùn) ”，政 策的推出恰好在 11 月于漢城舉辦的 G20 峰會(huì)（ G20 Summit）的前幾天，戴斯勒談到。在此期間，中國(guó)人民銀行還稱，將允許人民幣在更大范圍內(nèi)兌換，而不僅限于包括美元在內(nèi)的七種貨幣。正如日本銀行（ Bank of Japan）的一份報(bào)告指出的： “從全球來(lái)看，寬松的貨幣政策在商品價(jià)格的迅速上漲中扮演著重要的角色，這種政策既刺激了人們對(duì)商品的實(shí)際 需求，同時(shí)也促使更多的投資流向了商品市場(chǎng)。 ”他談到， “總體來(lái)說(shuō)，這個(gè)政策是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)發(fā)出的一個(gè)信號(hào)，它不能讓美國(guó)發(fā)生通貨緊縮，并且將有積極 的表現(xiàn)如果美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)未能反彈。 ”他談到。如果美國(guó)的失業(yè)率持續(xù)高企，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)出臺(tái)第三輪量化寬松貨幣（ QE）政策的可能性就將不斷增加。幾個(gè)月以來(lái)，美國(guó)的失業(yè)率一直徘徊在 10%左右。 “第一輪量化寬松政策只是通過(guò)貿(mào)易渠道影響到了中國(guó)，而在實(shí)施第二輪量化寬松政策期間，美國(guó)的銀行和抵押 貸款公司發(fā)放信貸的能力得到了加強(qiáng)，所以，貨幣乘數(shù)（ money multiplier）（也稱為 ?貨幣擴(kuò)張系數(shù) ?或 ?貨幣擴(kuò)張乘數(shù) ?）放大了中國(guó)受到的影響。 “中國(guó)的過(guò)度反應(yīng)是毫無(wú)緣由的。 然而，鄭輝并不是唯一強(qiáng)調(diào)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)這種寬松貨幣政策應(yīng)該為商品價(jià)格的上漲承擔(dān)某些負(fù)責(zé)的人。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)， 4 月初，它出臺(tái)了提高商業(yè)銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率的措施，以收緊信貸，同時(shí)，它還將一年期存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率提高了 25 個(gè)基點(diǎn)，這是今年第二次提高基準(zhǔn)利率，也是自去年年初以來(lái)的第四次提高基準(zhǔn)利率。所以，另一輪量化寬松政策就是僅有的幾種選擇之一了。 ” 戴斯勒認(rèn)為，伯南克本來(lái)是可以通過(guò)在國(guó)內(nèi)外說(shuō)明出臺(tái)第二輪量化寬松政策的原由而避免遭到批評(píng)的。從這個(gè)角度來(lái)說(shuō)，第三輪量化寬松政策將會(huì)對(duì)北京加快人民幣升值的步伐 形成壓力。《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的《中國(guó)投資參考》（ FT China Confidential） 2 月份發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告稱，中國(guó)外匯管理局估計(jì)，通過(guò)資本賬戶流入中國(guó)的熱錢，從 2020 年的 1 萬(wàn)億美元，減少到了目前的 2， 900 億美元，這表明，即便在實(shí)施量化寬松政策，中國(guó)也有能力有效控制資金的流入量。s primary effect is political, counters Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, public policy research center. “It is causing a lot of nervousness in Beijing about the longterm policy of the Fed [concerning] the dollar, and the Chinese administration is worried that the . will pursue a longterm weak dollar policy, says Freeman, a former assistant . trade representative for China affairs. Recently, China stepped up pressure on the Treasury and the Federal Reserve by asking for reassurance that QE is only a shortterm exercise.” Philip Swagel, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department in the . and professor of international economic policy at University of Maryland, agrees that the economic impact of QE2 in general, and on China in particular, has not been as dramatic as it is often made out to be. “Chinese rhetoric is off the mark,” he says. ““QE2 is mainly a signal that the Federal Reserve will not allow deflation and would act in greater strength had the economy not rebounded. In the end, it will have a modest effect on the domestic economy and the international spillover is also modest.” Inflation and Aggravation Yet even relatively small, the spillover es at a sensitive time for many economies, including China39。s value. Blame Game As for the ., the QE2 was one of several policy levers pulled to improve the country3