【正文】 利反成了“劣勢(shì)”。 ? 王石：萬科一直規(guī)范執(zhí)行 《 勞動(dòng)法 》 ， 《 勞動(dòng)合同法 》 出臺(tái)對(duì)我們影響不大。 if RCA1, the industry has no the revealed parative advantage. 2020/9/15 RCA index in selected Asian countries and regions Notes: Primary Products (PP), Agrobased Manufactures (RB1), Other Resourcebased Manufactures (RB2), Textile, Garment and Footwear (LT1), Other Lowtechnology Manufactures (LT2), Automotive (MT1), process: Chemicals and Basic Metals (MT2), Engineering Products (MT3), Electronics and Electrical (HT1) and Other Hightechnology Goods (HT2). 2020/9/15 Discussion ? 對(duì)于中國(guó)的出口增長(zhǎng)而言，勞動(dòng)力比較優(yōu)勢(shì)是可持續(xù)的嗎？ ? 2020年 1月 1日開始實(shí)施的新《 勞動(dòng)合同法 》 將會(huì)扼殺中國(guó)的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)嗎？ ? 中國(guó)改革開放 30年所取得的成功，是 “ 后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì) ” 的結(jié)果，還是隱含著 “ 后發(fā)劣勢(shì) ” 的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？ 2020/9/15 勞動(dòng)力比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的可持續(xù)問題 ? 結(jié)構(gòu)性供給不足； ? 劉易斯轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)來臨，人口紅利即將消失； ? RMB升值、出口退稅下調(diào)、新勞動(dòng)法，成本上升； ? 價(jià)值鏈低端，利益有限； ? 鎖定資本節(jié)約型技術(shù)進(jìn)步； ? 信譽(yù)危機(jī)，貿(mào)易摩擦； ? 經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的壓力。 but in making hats, he can only exceed his petitor by onefifth or 20 per cent, and in making shoes he can excel勝過 him by onethird or 33 per cent. Will it not be for the interest of both, that the superior man employs himself exclusively in making shoes, and the inferior man in making hats?（如果兩個(gè)人都生產(chǎn)鞋和帽子。s trade triangle is larger than B39。 ? Zero transport cost。如果一個(gè)國(guó)家能以比我們低的成本提供商品，那么我們最好用自己有優(yōu)勢(shì)的商品同他們交換。 ? Encouraging export and restricting import. Early mercantilist writers embraced bullionism[‘bulj?niz?m] [’bulj?niz?m]信奉金銀通貨主義 (主張錢幣可直接兌換黃金或白銀 ) , the belief that that quantities of gold and silver were the measure of a nation39。 ?The different assumption。Ch3. Classic Trade Theory 2020/9/15 Preparation before learning theory ? You should know: ? Economist。 ?The novel methodology。s wealth. Later mercantilists developed a somewhat頗為 more sophisticated view. 2020/9/15 Ch3. Classic Trade Theory ? Mercantilism ? Absolute advantage theory (Adam Smith) ? Comparative advantage theory (David Ricardo) 2020/9/15 Absolute Advantage Theory ? The idea of Smith?s free trade ? The model of absolute advantage theory ? The meanings and limitations of absolute advantage theory 2020/9/15 Adam Smith ? Adam Smith (17231790) was a Scottish moral philosopher and a pioneer of political economy. He is the author of The Theory of Moral Sentiments道德情操論 and The Wealth of Nations(1776), the later is considered his magnum opus and the first modern work of economics. Adam Smith is widely cited as the father of modern economics. ? You can see: Adam Smith (17231790) 2020/9/15 The advantage of labor division(1) ? “In every period, indeed, of every society, the surplus part both of rude and manufactured produce（產(chǎn)品 。 ） 2020/9/15 The advantage of labor division(3) ? leads to greater skill and greater productivity。 ? Trade balance. 2020/9/15 Measurement of absolute advantage ? Labor productivity ? Labor cost ?A case: Assume: two countries are . and ., both produce cloth and wheat, but the production technology is different。s? The consumption possibilities frontier under free trade. (For CPF, find the production point in trade and draw a straight line with a slope given by TOT.) Country A Country B S S T T 1600 800 1200 4000 2020 3000 47 International Equilibrium ? The NS curves are flat over the range of production. ? The autarkic RP gives the flat portion of the NS curve in each country. ? Can read the pattern of parative advantage. ? The TOT has to be between the two RP39。其中一人在兩種商品的生產(chǎn)上都比另一個(gè)人具有優(yōu)勢(shì)，不過在帽子生產(chǎn)上只領(lǐng)先于其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手 1/5，或20%，而在鞋的生產(chǎn)上卻要領(lǐng)先于其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手 1/3，或 33％；那么，這個(gè)具有優(yōu)勢(shì)的人專門生產(chǎn)鞋子，而那個(gè)處于劣勢(shì)的人專門生產(chǎn)帽子，難道不是對(duì)于他們雙方都有利嗎 ?） 2020/9/15 The case of cloth and wine ? England may be so circumstanced在某種狀況或環(huán)境下的 , that to produce the cloth may require the labor of 100 men for one year。 ?內(nèi)外市場(chǎng)并重（本地市場(chǎng)效應(yīng)） 2020/9/15 新 《 勞動(dòng)合同法 》 的實(shí)施 ? 改革開放三十年來，還從來沒有一部法律讓中國(guó)的企業(yè)界，自上而下群體性感到震驚、憂慮、恐慌。 ? 張五常： 《 勞動(dòng)合同法 》 規(guī)定的 “ 無固定期限勞動(dòng)合同 ” 將維護(hù)懶人，導(dǎo)致鐵飯碗； “ 如果嚴(yán)厲執(zhí)行新勞動(dòng)法，失業(yè)率逾 8%恐怕是起碼的了 ” ；新勞動(dòng)法的實(shí)施 “ 把改革得大有看頭的經(jīng)濟(jì)搞垮了 ” 。 ? 楊小凱：“后發(fā)劣勢(shì)”指的是，正因?yàn)楹蟀l(fā)展國(guó)家可以輕便地模仿，一下就能快速搞經(jīng)濟(jì)，所以，后發(fā)國(guó)家會(huì)缺乏動(dòng)力去改革自己的制度。 ? 聲音： ? 柳傳志： “ 《 勞動(dòng)合同法 》 我們看了以后還是緊張的。 RD 1 Q39。s export of S = B39。 ?Argue證明 that trade is a positiveorsum game. ? Limitations ?It only can explain trade between the developed, not the developed and the developing. 2020/9/15 Ch3. Classic Trade Theory ? Mercantilism ? Absolute advantage theory (Adam Smith) ? Comparative advantage theory (David Ricardo) 2020/9/15 A true story ? Nobel laureate[?l?:i?t]得主 Paul Samuelson (1969) was once challenged by the mathematician Stanislaw Ulam to “name me one proposition[,pr?p??zi??n]命題 in all of the social sciences which is both true and nontrivial非平凡的 .” It was several years later than he thought of the correct response: parative advantage. ? “That it is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician。 ? In favor of the machine innovation. ? So, international trade is to make a bigger cake. 男女搭配， 工作不累！ 2020/9/15 Absolute advantage theory ? The basis of international trade is the absolute difference of technology between countries, which farther leads to the absolute difference of productivity and labor cost. ? Absolute advantage theory: each nation should specialize its absolute advantage and exchanges for its absolute disadvantage, then both nations consume more of both modities. 2020/9/15 Absolute A