act管理者不太可能將某些事情作為問題(完整版)
【正文】 o address structured problems –minimize the need for managers to use discretion –facilitate anizational efficiency ? procedure series of interrelated sequential steps順序的步驟 used to respond to a structured problem ? rule explicit 清楚的 statement of what to do or not to do ? policy guidelines or parameters for decision making 616 16 6 6,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them Types of Problems and Decisions (cont.) – PoorlyStructured Problems new, unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or inplete – Nonprogrammed Decisions used to address poorly structured problems ? produce a custommade response ? more frequent among higherlevel managers – few decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or nonprogrammed 617 17 6 Types Of Problems, Types Of Decisions, And Level In The Organization Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammed Decisions Level in Organization Top Lower Wellstructured Illstructured Type of Problem 618 18 6 7,Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty DecisionMaking Conditions – Certainty oute of every alternative is known ? idealistic rather than realistic – Risk able to estimate the probability of outes stemming from each alternative ? expected value the conditional return from each possible oute –multiply expected revenue from each oute by the probability of each oute 619 19 6 Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift 620 20 6 169。30=239 Expected value 240*040 成功0maximizing the minimum possible payoff最大最小選擇 –minimax minimize the maximum “regret” – 最小化其最大遺憾 625 25 6 Payoff Matrix收益矩陣 626 26 6 Regret Matrix(遺憾 矩陣 ) 627 27 6 8,Describe the different decisionmaking styles DecisionMaking Styles決策風(fēng)格 – two dimensions define the approach to decision making ? way of thinking differs from rational to intuitive ? tolerance for ambiguity模糊承受力 a high need for consistency and order in making decis
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