【正文】 auf Konjunktureinbruch vor. Handelsblatt, 15/12/20xx. P. 35. Exchange Rate (Yuan/US$, avg.) n / a n / a n / a n / a 205.0 192.0 165.5 n / a n / a FX Reserves (bnUSD) n / a n / a n / a n / a . n / a n / a Total External Debt (% of GDP) n / a n / a n / a n / a n / a n / a Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (bnUSD) Trade Balance (bnUSD) CPI % GDP % 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 20xx 1999 1998 Economic Indicators 6 S. Wei Gang / M. Schlaffer Leasing Business in China may lead to a 2% cut of GDP. After a sharp increase of exports by 28% in 20xx, the increase rate is far below in 20xx (6,3% from January to November).4 Currency Currently the Chinese currency ?Renminbi‘ (or RMB) is informal pegged to USD with tight trading bands (USD 1 ~ RMB ). The Central Bank of China (PBOC) has been able to stabilize the RMB FX rate for years. This was mainly based on strict FX controls by SAFE (=State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and high FX reserves of roughly USD 200bn (end of 20xx) due to a positive current account balance. On one hand with the WTO access, China has to eliminate all major import hurdles. By 20xx all import quotas will disappear and the on average customs rate will be reduced under 10% from currently 15,3%.5 It is expected that this development will boost imports of hightech products and thus a stronger demand for FX. This will support the tendency of a slight devaluation of the RMB in the following years (see table above). On the other hand the FDI (=Foreign Direct Investment) will be fostered by WTO and thus supports the RMB in the short run. Beside this a successful moderate opening of the capital market as well as a possible devaluation of the Japanese Yen will have strong influence of the future RMB development. Reform plans have announced a policy of controlled widening of RMB trading bands. But a free convertibility is not expected before 20xx because of fears about a corrective devaluation. Foreign Trade Nearly 20% of China‘s exports go to the . (in 20xx: over USD 100bn). After Japan (USD 55bn) and HK (USD ) the EU is China‘s most important export partner. Common export goods are machinery and electronics (42% of all exports) and textiles (over 20%). The current trade surplus is expected to be reduced by the cooling world economy (short term) and abolishing of import quotas and reduction of customs due to WTOaccess (long term). Source of Data: Bundesstelle for Au223。hrungsriege soll Stabilit228。P and A3 by Moody‘s. Despite of ambitious reform plans China strives for an entire deregulation of the financial market not earlier than 5 years post WTO access. In the ing years, China‘s banking sector reform will focus on three main themes: Interest rate liberalization, the opening of RMB business to foreign banks, and listing stateowned banks on the stock markets. Banking Sector The bankingsector assets rose by about 35% per year over the past two decades, and reached RMB 15tn (USD ) at the end of 20xx. This sector faces major restructuring challenges due to large amounts of nonperforming loans, lowerthanrequired capital, inadequate riskmanagement capacity, and many underemployed workers. State Owned Banks The Chinese Banking Sector is dominated by 4 State Owned Banks (?big4‘): Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China. These banks have a nationwide reach and count for more than 2/3rds of all Chinese loans and deposits. Beside them there are a variety of smaller players of municipal and city banks. Sh a r e s o f T o ta l D e p o s i ts (U SD 1 , 1 1 6 b n )R u r a l C r e d i t C o o p s13%U r b a n C o o p e r a t i o n s7%C o m m e r c i a l B a n k s9%B i g 471%Sh a r e s o f T o ta l L o a n s (U SD 9 7 3 b n )U r b a n C o o p s4%Fo r e i g n B a n k s2%R u r a l C r e d i t C o o p s9%P o l i c y B a n k s12%C o m m e r c i a l B a n k s6%B i g 467% Source: Citigroup 6 Alt, Bianca / Streicher, Juliane (20xx): L228。r Au223。 CHINA Business Initiative Leasing Business in China Beijing and Munich Updated: March 20xx Prepared by: Shen Wei Gang (SFSL) Markus Schlaffer (SFS ESF BD) 2 S. Wei Gang / M. Schlaffer Leasing Business in China TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Political Environment ........................................................................................................ 5 2 Macroeconomic Environment .......................................................................................... 5 Currency ....................................................................................................................... 6 Foreign Trade ............................................................................................................... 6 Foreign Investments ...................................................................................................... 7 Labor Market ................................................................................................................. 8 3 Financial Market ................................................................................................................. 8 Banking Sector.............................................................................................................. 8 State Owned Banks ............................................................................................... 8 Reforms of State Owned Banks ..............................................................