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系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型講ppt課件(完整版)

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【正文】 the right. ? Uses Tree Diagram I n v e n t o r y i n v e n t o r y c o r r e c t i o n t a r g e t p r o d u c t i o nthe Loops Analysis tool:variable hire rate Loop Number 1 of length 1 hire rate Workforce Loop Number 2 of length 6 hire rate Workforce production Inventory inventory correction target production target workforce displays all variables in all feedback loops (two) that pass through the Workbench Variable ( hire rate). 3)Simulating the Model:amount of Inventory over time. ?Double click on the simulation Runname editing box on the Toolbar to highlight the default name Current (or click once and drag over the name Current), then type in the name baserun. ?Click on the SyntheSim button ?Double click on the simulation Runname editing box on the Toolbar again and replace the name baserun with experiment. ?Using the mouse drag the slider below productivity back and forth. As you move the slider the model will simulate and the results will display in blue, with the results from baserun being shown in red. 4)Examining Behavior Position the mouse over Workforce and leave it there. A graph should pop up just below workforce. ?Click on Workforce to select it into the Workbench. ? Click on the Graph Analysis tool Two things are worth noting about the above graph. First both runs show a pattern of behavior known as damped oscillation. Second, the two runs are identical except for scaling. W o rk fo rc e2001501005000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100T i m e ( M on t h )W or kf or c e : e x pe r i m e n t P e r s onW or kf or c e : ba s e r u n P e r s on?Click on the variable Inventory appearing in the sketch and then click on the Graph tool ?We see a graph of Inventory with oscillating behavior similar to workforce, although Inventory starts out by declining before increasing in value. More importantly, there is only one graph visible. I n v e n t o ry6004002000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100T i m e ( M on t h )I n v e n t or y : e x pe r i m e n t W i dg e tI n v e n t or y : ba s e r u n W i dg e tClick on the Table tool ?Only one graph line is visible for Inventory because the values are identical for both runs. Changing productivity impacts only Workforce, target workforce and hire rate. This is quite clear just by looking at the model diagram as you drag the slider and occurs because productivity really just scales the number of people required to produce one item. ? Click on the Reset Slider button or press the Home key to return the value of productivity to its original setting. ? Repeat the above experimentation process with each of the three remaining constants. ? Drag the sliders observing behavior and then bring up more detailed graphs when you see something interesting. ? The things to be looking for when you are evaluating behavior are the period of oscillation(振動) , the extent by which variables change and the degree of damping(衰減 ). ? The period of oscillation is the time from one peak to the next on the time graphs. ? Damping is the decrease in amplitude that occurs from peak to peak, where amplitude is the distance along the y axis from the eventual value the variable settles to. ? It should be easy to see that productivity and inventory coverage do not significantly change these while time to adjust workforce and time to correct inventory do. time to adjust workforce e x pe r i m e n tba s e r u nW or kf or c e200150100500n e t h i r e r a t e60300 30 600 25 50 75 100T i m e ( M on t h ) 5) Causal
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