【正文】 e significant。 Yu 1995。60到64歲的老人只拿到他們子女收入的三分之一。那些在農(nóng)村地區(qū)的沒有退休金，沒有儲(chǔ)蓄的老年人在他們失去工作能力的時(shí)候怎么生活？有兩種可能的來源：他們自己的積蓄和子女的供養(yǎng)。也就是說，中國嚴(yán)重的老化問題將在未來10年里很快開始。中國瞬息萬變的生育年齡結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)示著隨后的變化。因?yàn)檗r(nóng)村地區(qū)的人們普遍很難接受一個(gè)孩子的政策，1984年政策有了調(diào)整，有了一份如果第一胎是女兒，允許他們生第二胎的政策調(diào)整；然而，一個(gè)孩子的政策在城市卻生效了。因?yàn)樵撚?jì)劃是由政府而不是夫妻自己操作的，一個(gè)家庭中孩子的數(shù)量可能不適合具體的需求和夫妻的考慮。在中國，例如，20世紀(jì)50年代和60年代，平均一對(duì)夫妻有6個(gè)孩子。 在城市原有工作企業(yè)或機(jī)構(gòu)擔(dān)保的離退休人員每月都可以拿到足以讓他們生活下去的退休金。農(nóng)村與城市之間存在的主要差異： 城鎮(zhèn)居民在企業(yè)、事業(yè)單位工作，他們每月所賺的固定工資收入普遍高于農(nóng)村居民的收入。無論是在城市或農(nóng)村地區(qū)都將有421的模式產(chǎn)生（陳1994）。研究人員把他們的研究重點(diǎn)放在人口和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)后果的研究和有針對(duì)性的對(duì)生育率下降的政策影響和年齡的變化結(jié)構(gòu)（喬1996）。生育率下降的速度可以決定這個(gè)問題的進(jìn)展所產(chǎn)生的后果的程度。老齡化問題是一個(gè)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和機(jī)構(gòu)不考慮在年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變化的結(jié)果，反過來說，也就是年齡結(jié)構(gòu)本身不適應(yīng)于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的變化發(fā)展。城市地區(qū)的體系類似于其他國家，但農(nóng)村地區(qū)的體系是完全不同的。 由于在城市地區(qū)有較高的收入，居民的儲(chǔ)蓄也比農(nóng)村的居民多。然后他們必須依靠家庭其他成員或者政府。然而，由于自然資源的限制和國家的發(fā)展，這種高生育率已經(jīng)不適合該國，即使它適合每一個(gè)家庭。盡管事實(shí)上這種限制沒有嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行，但是生育率下降仍然很劇烈。簡而言之，在30年期間，總生育率從1970年到1998年下降了70%（四個(gè)孩子等價(jià)）。從比例的變化來看，我們預(yù)測這加速將從2010年左右開始，結(jié)束于2040年左右。據(jù)1992年的調(diào)查（1994年中國老齡化研究中心），%的老年人參與了養(yǎng)老金提供機(jī)構(gòu)。這意味著老年人的子女提供幾乎一半的財(cái)政支持他們以彌補(bǔ)他們儲(chǔ)蓄和收入的匱乏。然而，事實(shí)卻是隨著年齡的增長，從孩子那兒得到的總收入?yún)s減少了。 that is, the portion of the population aged 65 and over would be accelerated. From the change in proportion, we predict that acceleration will begin around 2010 and will end around 2040. This means that the fastest increase in the proportion of elderly in China will occur between 2010 and 2040 (Qiao, 2001). After 2040, the elderly population will level out. This means that China’s serious aging problems will begin soon, within the next 10 years.Aging, or the change in the age structure, bees problematic when we take into account its context in a socioeconomic and institutional framework. Even though aging is a inevitable process, socioeconomic development that directly brings about transitions or decreases in fertility and mortality may cause agerelated problems that are different from country to country and area to area in terms of the speed of aging, the social and traditional convention, the economic power, and socioeconomic institution.The Needs for Support of the Elderly by Children in Rural AreasThe situation between rural and urban areas is quite different in China. In urban areas, most people work in an enterprise or institution where a pension is available when they retire. According to a 1992 survey (China Research Center on Aging 1994), % of the elderly were involved in pensionavailable institutions in urban areas. But in rural areas, only % of the elderly could get pensions when they retired, and 94% did not belong to any institution and had no pension available for retirement. Therefore, people in rural areas work until they lose their physical ability to perform labor work ,unlike people in urban areas who have to retire at a fixed age.How do those elderly in rural areas who have no pension live without any ine when they lose their ability to work? There are two possible resources: their own savings and support from their children. Do they have enough savings to live on in their old age? According to a 1992 survey, only % of elderly in rural areas had savings in banks, and nearly 84% had no savings at all. How do the elderly without savings live? According to social convention, the elderly must depend on their children, who expect to provide support and care for their aging parents.In order to discern the extent to which elderly parents had been financially supported by their children, we can pare the parent’s receipts from their personal earnings to financial support given by their children (see Table 1). According to the last year of the survey,