金融學(xué)外文翻譯------加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：基于中國(guó)的實(shí)證分析-國(guó)際貿(mào)易-文庫(kù)吧在線文庫(kù)
【正文】 d to test the cointegration relationship between multivariables by using maximum likelihood estimation in vector autoregression(VAR) system． This paper, by adopting EngleGranger’s twostage Cointegration test method， has a cointegration test of time series． The steps of EngleGranger’s twostage test method go as follows： Step 1： use mon least square method(OLS) to estimate the longterm static regression equation and calculate nonequilibrium error． Step 2： use ADF statistics test to estimate the stationarity of the residual error series． If the residual error series is estimated to be stationary, it suggests there exists a cointegration relationship between variables． . Error Correction Model(ECM) Error correction model was firstly adopted by Sargon， and then its application was promoted by Herdry, Anderson and Davidson． The main purpose of the initial application of errorcorrection model is to set up shortterm dynamic model so as to make up for the shortings of longterm static model． It can reflect the mechanism of the shortterm deviation to longrun equilibrium as well as the long加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口影響了 GDP 的增長(zhǎng)。改革開放以來(lái)，加工貿(mào)易在我國(guó)迅速增加，并且在我國(guó)有有關(guān)加工貿(mào)易的大量研究。 平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn) 許多經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)沒(méi)有穩(wěn)定的過(guò)程特征。 ADF 的試驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ捅磉_(dá)式如下： (1) (2) (3) T 為時(shí)間變量，它代表了某種趨勢(shì)的時(shí)間序列變化，隨著時(shí)間的推移。恩格爾和格蘭杰（ 1987 年）指出，如果兩非平穩(wěn)時(shí)間序列的線性組合是平穩(wěn)的，這兩個(gè)非平穩(wěn)時(shí)間序列具有協(xié)整關(guān)系，也就是說(shuō)，這兩個(gè)時(shí)間序列有一個(gè)共同的趨向，所以它們可以被認(rèn)為存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系。如果殘差誤差序列估計(jì) 是靜止的，它表明變量之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。因?yàn)橥ǔ?huì)顯示在傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì) 10 計(jì)量模型的建立中，因此，它要求明確地揭示經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的作用機(jī)制。 總結(jié) 1）格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)表明，加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在單方面的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。 。 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn) 基于誤差修正模型（ ECM），我們可以應(yīng)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)有兩個(gè)長(zhǎng)期和短期的因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。 同時(shí)，由于通常在短期動(dòng)態(tài)干擾項(xiàng)和長(zhǎng)期均衡項(xiàng)之間不存在顯著的統(tǒng)計(jì)相關(guān)，因此，我們可以分別作出經(jīng)濟(jì)解釋。 EngleGranger 的兩個(gè)階段的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)方法的步驟如下： 第一步：使用普通最小二乘法（ OLS 模型）來(lái)估計(jì)長(zhǎng)期靜態(tài)回歸方程和計(jì)算非均衡誤差。 協(xié)整性檢驗(yàn) 在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，以往的建模技術(shù)具有動(dòng)態(tài)平穩(wěn)性的假設(shè)， 和實(shí)證分析基于時(shí)間序列的假設(shè)時(shí)間序列是平穩(wěn)的。本文通過(guò)采用 ADF 檢驗(yàn)，給出了時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)。它主要分析時(shí)間序列的非平穩(wěn)性，建立非平穩(wěn)變量的經(jīng) 濟(jì)模型，并探討非平穩(wěn)之間的長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系。因此如何從一個(gè)客觀的角度去衡量加工貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)，已成一個(gè)非常重要的問(wèn)題。為了弄清加工貿(mào)易與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系，本文以中國(guó) 1985 年到 2020 年的 統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，通過(guò)采用協(xié)整理論，格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和誤差修正模型（ ECM），分別考察了加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口和出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。 when t1 works， Y is more than its longrun equilibrium solution， is positive，then is negative， making decrease； while when t1 works， Y is less than its longterm equilibrium solution， is negative， then is positive， making increase. . Granger Causality Test Based on error correction model(ECM), we can apply Granger causality test to have a test of both longterm and shortterm cause and effect relationship. Granger causality test was put forward by Granger(1969) and Sims(1972)， with its basic idea that the predictive validity of the variable Y under the condition of including the past information of the variables X and Y is superior to that of only considering the past information of Y, that is，the variable X helps to explain Y’s future variation, so X is the Grangercausality of Y, or else it is called nonGrangercausality. 6 3. Conclusion 1)Granger causality test shows that there exists unilateral Granger causality relationship between processing trade import and economic growth. Processing trade import influences the growth of GDP. 2)For a long period, there exists long term stable equilibrium relationship between GDP and processing trade， processing trade import remarkably promotes the growth of GDP, while processing trade export restricts the growth of GDE Whenever processing trade export increases by 1%， G
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