金融學(xué)外文翻譯------加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：基于中國(guó)的實(shí)證分析-國(guó)際貿(mào)易-免費(fèi)閱讀
【正文】 當(dāng)加工貿(mào)易出口增長(zhǎng) 1%，GDP 將下降 %；當(dāng)加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng) 1%， GDP 將增長(zhǎng) %。 誤差修正模型是短期動(dòng)態(tài)的，它是不能達(dá)到平衡狀態(tài)。它可以反映到長(zhǎng)期均衡機(jī)制的短期偏差以及不同時(shí)間序列之間的長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系。 EngleGranger 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)由恩格爾和格蘭杰提出，其只考慮到了 雙變量的過(guò)程，這個(gè)過(guò)程僅擁有零或只有一個(gè)協(xié)整向量。每當(dāng)檢驗(yàn)拒絕零假設(shè)，即原系列不包括單位根，作為平穩(wěn)序列時(shí)，測(cè)試完成。單 位根檢驗(yàn)是其中的一個(gè)普遍使用的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)檢驗(yàn)。因此，本文將通過(guò)就業(yè)協(xié)整理論、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、和誤差修正模型（ ECM）等方法來(lái)分析加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。目前，對(duì)外貿(mào)易、投資和消費(fèi)成為了推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“三架馬車”。s foreign trade has been developing rapidly. At preseng foreign trade， investment and consumption have been“ the three carriages” driving the growth of China’s economy. On the basis of developing the general trade， our country actively implements the policy of encouraging the development of processing trade so as to make it realize the breakthrough development Presently,processing trade has bee China’s major trade method， playing an extremely important role in impulsing the adjustment and perfection of the industry structure， spurring the improvement of the processing technique and the increasing the opportunity of labor employment． Thereby how to measure processing trade’s contribution to China’s economic growth from an objective perspective bees a very important problem． Since the position of the processing trade in developed countries is not remarkable， thus abroad there are few researches on the 2 relationship between processing trade and national economy． Since reform and opening，processing trade has been increasing swiftly in our country, and there is much research on processing trade at home ． The empirical analysis of Liu Zhizhong and Wang Yaozhong(2020)shows that the degree of processing trade’s contribution to economic growth and its impulse to economic growth are rather low； the empirical result of Yah Guoqing and Chen Lijing(2020)demonstrates that whenever China’s processing trade increases by 1 percent, GDP will increase by percent， and the degree of processing trade’s contribution equals 53 percent ； Sun Churen， Shen Yuliang and Zhao Hongjun(2020)calculates the total contribution of processing trade import and other trade import to economic growth is negative； Zhu Qirong(2020)， by employing linear regression approach， draws the conclusion that the increase of cornmon trade import and export and the processing trade export both impulse the increase of GDP,while the increase of processing trade import will cause negative growth of GDP； Yang Songli and Yu Haishan(2020)make an empirical analysis of processing trade’s effect on Zhejiang’s economic growth by prehensively employing processing trade valueadded factor,the promoting degree of processing trade to Zhejiang’s GDP and other analyzing method such as linear regression. Obviously,the internal academic munity holds different beliefs about the relationship between processing trade and economic growth； meanwhile， these research literatures do not illustrate the longrun and shortrun equilibrium relationship between processing trade and economic growth and the impact mechanism． Therefore， this paper will analyze the relationship between processing trade and economic growth by employing methods of cointegration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model(ECM)，etc． 2. Methodology The purpose of empirical analysis in this paper is to test the relationship between processing trade and economic growth by means of cointegration technique． Cointegration technique is a new one which is applied to dynamic models’enactment,estimation and verification． It mainl
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