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ppraise and reply in dealing with the project risk. Finally, in the risk estimation and risk appraise, this paper paid attention to evaluate the losing caused by the risk exactly。 and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative probability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision. Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk management to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basis International project contracting is rather a plex project in the cooperation of international economy and technology, and the implementing of the projects will be influenced by political, economy and social situations Firstly, this paper systemically analyzed the market situation of the international project contracting, and concretely analyzed the market structure in Asia, America, Africa and Europe. It concluded the trend of the development of the international contracting market。本文前兩章為課題研究的背景和理論基礎(chǔ),第一章介紹了本課題的國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)狀,課題的意義和課題的研究范圍。第四章是大中型房地產(chǎn)項目采購階段的風(fēng)險管理,也是通過研究項目采購的含義,原則,作用,目標(biāo)和關(guān)鍵角色來識別和分析項目采購階段的主要風(fēng)險因素,并制定承包商和供應(yīng)商評選程序來緩解 風(fēng)險,也介紹項目采購計劃的制定方法和內(nèi)容,并給出了示例。由于應(yīng)對方案的實施會改變項目結(jié)果的分布,簡單地采用項目原折現(xiàn)率對期望值折現(xiàn)來對應(yīng)對方案進行評價已不再適用。第二章主要介紹了項目風(fēng)險識別的工具 和技術(shù)。為了更好地實施項目風(fēng)險監(jiān)控,制定完善的風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃是必要的,其措施主要有:減輕風(fēng) 險,預(yù)防風(fēng)險(如工程法,教育法,程序法),轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(出售,發(fā)包,開脫責(zé)任合同,保險與擔(dān)保),回避,自留,后各措施。與國際先進水平相比,我國目前在項目風(fēng)險管理理論如何應(yīng)用到項目管 理實踐這個環(huán)節(jié)上還有很大差距,尤其缺乏對項目風(fēng)險管理的系統(tǒng)研究。最后本文從力爭全面考慮各種風(fēng)險;準(zhǔn)確估計風(fēng)險造成的損失;兼顧成本,收益兩方面因素,尋求經(jīng)濟合理等方面提出了降低國際工程承包風(fēng)險,提高企業(yè)經(jīng)營效率的風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施。其次,本文分析了我國國際工程承包的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和特點。本章首先從地段,周邊環(huán)境,交通和市場需求等諸多方面對該項目進 行了市場調(diào)研,然后對該項目在融資風(fēng)險和合資的組織風(fēng)險 進行了系統(tǒng)的分析。在進行項目定量風(fēng)險分析時,首先要有明確的依據(jù),不能憑空臆測:其次應(yīng)區(qū)分清確定性項目和不確定性項目定量分析的方法。本文對指導(dǎo)工程項目的投資者 /管理者如何在項目實施階段建立一個風(fēng)險管理體系并正確做出風(fēng)險決策有一定的參考價值。這些程序已經(jīng)在我所承擔(dān)的項目中實際運用,并被證明有效地 緩解項目實施階段的風(fēng)險。在研究項目風(fēng)險管理的流程是,將項目實施階段 風(fēng)險管理劃分為風(fēng)險識別,風(fēng)險分析,風(fēng)險應(yīng)對,風(fēng)險監(jiān)控四個步驟,并對每個步驟的依據(jù),方法,和結(jié)果做了介紹。特別是 20 世紀 80 年代以后,隨著高新技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展以及經(jīng)濟全球化,項目風(fēng)險管理的研究也越來越系統(tǒng)化, 專業(yè)化。外文翻譯 As one of the important subjects of project management originated the First World War, and now it has been being more and more systematic and professional. In China the systematic project risk management framework was developed by the end of last century, but the practical application of project risk management still needs further improvement. With above background, this thesis focused on the medium or large real estate project, research project character, project management, typical Chinese construction project process, risk management, and project risk management. The first chapter briefed the current international and domestic study status of the subject, thesis purpose, and thesis scope, which are risk an