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【正文】 他人 投保、聯(lián)營、技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓、 業(yè)務(wù)外包 接受 風(fēng)險自擔(dān) 承擔(dān)損失計入成本、沖減 利潤 風(fēng)險自保 提取準(zhǔn)備金 Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) ? Assumption 1: The returns from investments are normally distributed. ? Assumption 2: Investors are riskaverse. ? Assumption 3: Investors are rational. ? Assumption 4: Investors are price takers. ? Assumption 5: The Efficient Market Hypothesis holds. Efficient market hypothesis: Prices fully reflect all available information on a particular stock and/or market. No investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price since no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. Three types of financial market efficiency: ? allocationally efficient ? operationally efficient ? informationally efficient Three main factors associated with informational market efficiency ? The type of information to which the market price reacts ? The speed at which the market price reacts to information ? The degree to which market participants overor underreact to information Forms of Informational Efficiency Fama (1970) distinguishes three forms of informationally efficient markets: ?Weak Form ?Semistrong Form ?Strong Form Characteristics of an Informationally Efficient Market ? Price changes cannot be predicted. ? The price of the asset is equal to its fundamental (unobserved but true) value. ? Price changes should be random and unpredictable. Anomalies in Finance ? the shortrun underpricing of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) ? small panies have higher returns than that expected, based on the CAPM (small firm effect) ? on average, stocks have lower (negative) returns on Monday, pared to (positive) returns on other days of the week (Monday effect) ? stocks have higher returns in January, relative to other months of the year (January effect). ?long run reversions in returns (overreaction) —— buy losers, sell winners。 2.局限:預(yù)期收益率不同的資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險不適用。 Therefore, my merchandise makes me not sad. ——Shakespear, Merchant of Venice 我的買賣的成敗并不完全寄托在一艘船上,更不是倚賴著一處地方;我的全部財產(chǎn),也不會因?yàn)檫@一年的盈虧而受到影響,所以我的貨物并不能使我憂愁。 Wisdom Mini case For many people it is quite acceptable to risk $20 every week in the lottery, in view of potential returns of hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of dollars. When you buy a lottery ticket, the risk of losing your $20 is very high (how often have you won anything at lotto). How much you will be willing to risk, given a set probability of winning or losing, depen
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