【正文】 ，因此，在項(xiàng)目建設(shè)前應(yīng)該審慎的進(jìn)行可行性研究 。諸如采用了國(guó)家級(jí)科技進(jìn)步二等獎(jiǎng)的醇烴化合成氣精制技術(shù)、國(guó)家科技進(jìn)步一等獎(jiǎng)的變 壓吸附脫碳技術(shù)、尿素生產(chǎn)雙塔并聯(lián)技術(shù)、熔融尿素噴漿造粒尿基復(fù)合肥生產(chǎn)技術(shù)等。受工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和城市化步 伐加快的影響，耕地逐年減少的勢(shì)頭沒有得到徹底遏止。預(yù)計(jì) 2021 年糧食需求量將達(dá)到 64000 萬噸。 隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展，化肥在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中所起的作用越來越大。化肥工業(yè)歷來是化學(xué)工業(yè)的發(fā)展重點(diǎn)，投資占整個(gè)化學(xué)工業(yè)的 40%以上。化肥行業(yè)是運(yùn)輸業(yè)的重要市場(chǎng)?？尚行匝芯康膬?nèi)容主要包括總論、需求預(yù)測(cè)和擬建規(guī)模、原材料及能源保障預(yù)測(cè)、產(chǎn)品決策、工藝技術(shù)方案和設(shè)備的選擇、建廠條件和廠址選擇、環(huán)境保護(hù)的研究、財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)估、經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)綜合評(píng)價(jià)等方面。 1983 年，國(guó)家計(jì)委在頒發(fā)的《關(guān)于建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行可行性研究的試行管理辦法》中正式把可行性研究列入基本建設(shè)程序。 可行性研究的階段劃分 依據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)工業(yè)發(fā)展組織編寫的《工業(yè)可行性研究手冊(cè)》規(guī)定，在建設(shè)前期可行性研究工作，可分為機(jī)會(huì)研究、初步可行性研究、詳細(xì)可行性研究和項(xiàng)目評(píng)估四個(gè)階段。其主要任務(wù)有 :研究產(chǎn)品方案、生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃、資源供應(yīng)、籌資成本等內(nèi)容，提出若干可供選擇的投資方案 。 ② 項(xiàng)目歷史簡(jiǎn)述。 ① 供應(yīng) 上要有可靠保障。 ① 資源條件。 (7) 技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合評(píng)價(jià)。 ⑴ 尿素出口 2021 年，中東地區(qū)尿素出口總量達(dá)到 620 萬噸，占世界尿素總出口量 2830 萬噸的22％，僅次于前蘇聯(lián)國(guó)家 750 萬噸 (占世界總量的 27％ )的出口量。 2021 年，美國(guó)進(jìn)口了 500 萬噸尿素。 2021 年，全球尿素消費(fèi)量為 億噸，其中 63％的消費(fèi)來自亞洲。主要的增長(zhǎng)區(qū)域?qū)⒃趤喼蓿绕涫窃谟《取? 化肥的需求主要取決于人口對(duì)糧食、水果、蔬菜等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的需求，也受到農(nóng)民收入、化肥資源量、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和政策 導(dǎo)向等因素的影響。要達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)，考慮到淘汰部分現(xiàn)有氮肥生產(chǎn)能力， 2021～ 2021 年期間還要大幅度提高氮肥有效生產(chǎn)能力。若加上俄國(guó)內(nèi)運(yùn)費(fèi) (20＄ )，海運(yùn)費(fèi) (20＄ )，則國(guó)內(nèi)到港成本 (ClF)為 120 美元噸。 中東和俄羅斯尿素在中國(guó)港口的成本估算如下： 表 24 進(jìn)口尿素的總成本構(gòu)成 Fob(＄ /t) 運(yùn)費(fèi) (＄ /t) C1F(＄ /t) 關(guān)稅 + 增值稅 (元 /噸 ) 包裝 (元 /噸 ) 合計(jì) (元 /噸 ) 俄羅斯 100 20 120 170 80 約 1250 中東 90 20 110 155 80 約 1150 增值稅及關(guān)稅1 4 %包裝7 % 天然氣20%制造費(fèi)用20%財(cái)務(wù)及其它費(fèi)用13%國(guó)內(nèi)運(yùn)費(fèi)13%海運(yùn)費(fèi)用13% 增值稅及關(guān)稅1 4 %海運(yùn)費(fèi)用14%財(cái)務(wù)及其它費(fèi)用18%制造費(fèi)用36%天然氣11%包 裝 7 % 圖 22 進(jìn)口俄羅斯尿素成本構(gòu)成 圖 23 進(jìn)口中東尿素成本構(gòu)成 可以看出，兩個(gè)地區(qū)的尿素國(guó)內(nèi)到港成本構(gòu)成基本相似。預(yù)計(jì)今后雖然可能繼續(xù)波動(dòng)，但維持在高價(jià)位可能性大。 總之，在 2021 年我國(guó)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格高，大部分中型氮肥企業(yè)相對(duì)國(guó)外進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品不具有顯著的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。這里鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)工業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)，水、電、交通等基礎(chǔ)配套設(shè)施完善適合建廠辦企業(yè)。 建議：設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)壓、雪荷載應(yīng)嚴(yán)格按照荷載規(guī)范取 地震 根據(jù)“中國(guó)地震動(dòng)峰值加速度區(qū)劃圖”（ GB183062021）、“建筑抗震設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)范”及相關(guān)地質(zhì)資料顯示，新鄉(xiāng)縣設(shè)計(jì)地震加速度值 ，相應(yīng)的抗震設(shè)防裂度為 8 度。 第 3 層，粉砂土，呈灰、灰黃色，屬?zèng)_積形成壓縮性中等顆粒均勻、含云母碎片，巖性極均一，厚 米。厚 米。 基于上述原因，并考慮到地下水位對(duì)地基承載力的影響，本工程不宜使用天然地基方案。建議施工圖設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)按 8 度抗震設(shè)防。 建筑工程費(fèi)用；參照當(dāng)?shù)赝愋徒?gòu)筑物單方造價(jià)進(jìn)行估算。 投資分析 項(xiàng)目新增總投資 萬元。 ⑵ 本次新建工程項(xiàng)目資金規(guī)模 。 ⑵ 國(guó)家現(xiàn)行的財(cái)務(wù)、稅收文件。 根據(jù)損益表、固定資產(chǎn)投資估算表計(jì)算以下指標(biāo)： 靜態(tài)投資效益： 投資利潤(rùn)率 =年平均利潤(rùn)247。 圖 52 敏感性分析報(bào)告 從圖上可以看出來其他費(fèi)用和工人工資對(duì)內(nèi)部收益率的影響很小，而可變成本和原材料價(jià)格和尿素價(jià)格的線性關(guān)系的相關(guān)性較大，也就是說項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部收益率基本上決26 定于原材料和尿素價(jià)格的比率以及可變成本的量。 項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)分析結(jié)論，本項(xiàng)目首先有著顯著的社會(huì)效益，是一個(gè)發(fā)展本地經(jīng)濟(jì)提高效益的好項(xiàng)目，它應(yīng)該得到推廣和社會(huì)的承認(rèn)。 通過對(duì)市場(chǎng)的分析，國(guó)際尿素需求將持續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，且國(guó)內(nèi)不會(huì)再大量進(jìn)口尿素 ，這樣就有了需求缺口，有這個(gè)市場(chǎng)需求。 G 30 附 錄 附 錄 1： 英文原文 Feasibility study A feasibility study’s main goal is to assess the economic viability of the proposed business. The feasibility study needs to answer the question: “Does the idea make economic sense?” The study should provide a thorough analysis of the business opportunity, including a look at all the possible roadblocks that may stand in the way of the cooperative’s success. The oute of the feasibility study will indicate whether or not to proceed with the proposed venture. If the results of the feasibility study are positive, then the cooperative can proceed to develop a business plan. If the results show that the project is not a sound business idea, then the project should not be pursued. Although it is difficult to accept a feasibility study that shows these results, it is much better to find this out sooner rather than later, when more time and money would have been invested and lost. It is tempting to overlook the need for a feasibility study. Often, the steering mittee may face resistance from potential members on the need to do a feasibility study. Many people will feel that they know the proposed venture is a good idea, so why carry out a costly study just to prove what they already know? The feasibility study is important because it forces the NGC to put its ideas on paper and to assess whether or not those ideas are realistic. It also forces the NGC to begin formally evaluating which steps to take next. The NGC’s anizers will typically hire a consultant to conduct the feasibility study. Because the consultant is independent of the cooperative, he or she is in a better position to provide an objective analysis of the proposed venture. The consultant should have a good understanding of the industry as well as the new generation cooperative model of 31 business. He or she should have previous experience in directly related work. To get an estimate of the costs of a feasibility study, prepare a rough outline of the work needed to be done. Contact several consultants and provide them with a copy of this rough draft to see what sort of estimates they give. When the time es to hire a consultant, prepare a formal request for proposals that outlines the information that is needed and send this to several consultants. It might be tempting to choose the lowestcost consultant or a personal acquaintance of one of the NGC’s anizers, but always remember that quality work is the most important factor when choosing a consultant. Make sure that the consultant can provide an independent assessment of the business opportunity. For instance, hiring an engineering firm or an equipment manufacturer to conduct market analysis may lead to biased results in favor of proceeding with the venture. Engineering firms and equipment manufacturers may have an incentive to show positive results so they can obtain contracts with the cooperative once it chooses to start up operations. Engineering firms and equipment manufacturers are needed in order to provide information about equipment requirements and costs, but an independent consultant should conduct the overall feasibility study. A feasibility study should examine three main areas: ? market issues ? technical and anizational requirements ? financial overview Market issues: The primary area that the feasibility study needs to address 。斯奈爾 27 6 結(jié)論 通過對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的分析，可以得出以下結(jié)論：