【正文】 3/1/2023 16 電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展 RITT 趙慧玲 新形勢(shì)對(duì)電信網(wǎng)的要求 (1) 1).目前的電信網(wǎng)是為電話設(shè)計(jì)的，正在改造以便 傳數(shù)據(jù)和圖象。3/1/2023 1 電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展 RITT 趙慧玲 3/1/2023 2 電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展 RITT 趙慧玲 圖 1 我國(guó)電信網(wǎng)的構(gòu)成 公用無(wú)線數(shù)據(jù)網(wǎng) BISDN FRN DDN NISDN PSTN 業(yè)務(wù)網(wǎng) 支撐網(wǎng) 同步網(wǎng) 電信管理網(wǎng) 傳送網(wǎng) 話音平臺(tái) 智能網(wǎng) 公共業(yè)務(wù)平臺(tái) 電子郵件 /傳真 存儲(chǔ)轉(zhuǎn)發(fā) /EDI 語(yǔ)音信息臺(tái) 多媒體信息服務(wù)臺(tái) IP網(wǎng) 移動(dòng)網(wǎng) 3/1/2023 3 電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展 RITT 趙慧玲 Annual Revenue $392$ 2 , 2 4 2 $ 2 , 5 9 3$ 1 7 , 6 7 8$ 5 3 , 2 2 3$$ 1 0 , 0 0 0$ 2 0 , 0 0 0$ 3 0 , 0 0 0$ 4 0 , 0 0 0$ 5 0 , 0 0 0$ 6 0 , 0 0 0L ev el 3 Q w es t F r o n t i er M C I W o r l d c o m A T TA n n u a l R ev en u e i n M U S D ( 1 9 9 8 ) Annual Ine $ ( 8 4 4 )$317$ ( 2 , 6 6 9 )$ 7 , 4 8 7$ ( 1 2 8 )$ ( 4 , 0 0 0 )$ ( 2 , 0 0 0 )$$ 2 , 0 0 0$ 4 , 0 0 0$ 6 , 0 0 0$ 8 , 0 0 0L ev el 3 Q w es t F r o n t i er M C I W o r l d c o m A T TA n n u a l I n c o m e i n M U S D ( 1 9 9 8 )Note: Level 3 had high Extraordinary Revenues in 1998 that more than pensated the Loss on Ordinary Operations shown in this chart MCI World Revenue mix ATT revenue mix ? ATT revenue mix was the following in 1998: ?Business services: 23,611 Million USD (or 44% of the revenue) ?Consumer services: 22,885 Million USD (43%) ?Wireless services: 5,406 Million USD (10%) ?Other services: 1,321 Million USD (2%) ? ATT is just starting to introduce Broadband Inter Services in their reporting. These accounted for % of their revenues in the 1Q99. ? Voice: 9192 9293 9394 9495 9596 – Main telephones in service: +36% +51% +57% +49% +35% ? Data: – Number of Inter hosts: +277% +820% – Number of PCs: +37% +55% +44% +42% ? Conclusion – There is still a lot of growth in traditional voice – The revenues largely e from the voice traffic Traffic volume growth of voice and data The China figures, as proposed by ITU 3/1/2023 8 電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展 RITT 趙慧玲 Expected growth of VoiceoverIP ? By 2023, VoIP is expected to be % of total voice traffic (national+ international) (Inter + IP managed works) For China the forecast is % in 2023。未來(lái)的趨勢(shì)將主要按數(shù)據(jù)業(yè)務(wù)來(lái) 設(shè)計(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，但可用來(lái)傳電話，數(shù)據(jù)和圖象業(yè)務(wù)。 應(yīng)用： IP/Cell/WebTV（ Web、 Video、 Multicast）； 服務(wù)：管理性、可靠性。 % in 2023 Traditional voice has to be supported for a lot of years ! Source: IDC/Link BCG analysis V o I Pw o r l d w i d e f i g u r e s01020304050607080901001997 1998 1999 2023 2 0 0 1 2023% of total voice (minutes of use)T r a d i t i o n a l v o i c eV o I PV o I Pw o r l d w i d e f i g u r e s01020304050607080901001997 1998 1999 2023 2 0 0 1 2023% of total voice (minutes of use)T r a d i t i o n a l v o i c eV o I PSource: OVUM Report 1 2 3 Segmentation of operators Based on the backbone protocol ? Established operators looking for very open multiservice works – For data: use of ATM backbone to transport IP andFR – For voice: optimization of circuit works (ATM backbone, voice over SDH, trunking of VoATM and VoIP in the existing work) – Full support of existing services and introduction of new services ? New tele operators continuing ATM deployment, carrying IP, Voice and Frame Relay ? Inter service providers and new entrants asking for pure IP switching backbone ATM and IP deployment in the backbone Existing voice work integration on ATM migration to IP ATM migration to IP IP deployment 1 3 2 The choices of some US operators ATM, ATM/IP or IP ? Established operators, focusing on ATM (multiservice works) – RBOCs (Ameritech, Bell Atlantic, Bell South, SBC Communications, US WEST), MCI, GTE , IXC, ATT, (Sprint (ION): no voice yet) ? New entrants, focusing on ATM (delayed migrating to IP) – Williams, Qwest ? New entrants focusing on pure IP backbones (managed IP works) – Level 3, Frontier, UUNet 1 3 2 寬帶平臺(tái)和接入的技術(shù)焦點(diǎn) IP over ATM/SDH/FIBER 觀點(diǎn)之一： G交換路由器＋優(yōu)化光纖網(wǎng)絡(luò) ?新一代網(wǎng)絡(luò)集話音、視頻和數(shù)據(jù)為一體； ?帶寬“第一目標(biāo)”，其它次要地位，提高競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力； ?統(tǒng)一 IP，不必顧及多業(yè)務(wù)，可解決 QOS； ?避免 ATM的復(fù)雜和開(kāi)銷，降低復(fù)雜性； ?CIPOA、 LANE在實(shí)時(shí)業(yè)務(wù)時(shí)不能保證 QOS； ?成本降低幾十倍； ?利用 HFC， STB和 Cable Modem是 IP產(chǎn)品 ?適合城域網(wǎng)； ?電話業(yè)務(wù)的價(jià)格提供多媒體信息服務(wù)。 對(duì)現(xiàn)有電路交換網(wǎng)的改造是不可避免的！ (例子： Cisco總工的預(yù)言 ) 象 WorldCom這樣的少數(shù)新興電信公司的網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù) 業(yè)務(wù)量已超過(guò)電話，而象 ATT,US Sprint等傳統(tǒng)電話公司的網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù)業(yè)務(wù)量也將在 2023年左右超過(guò)電話業(yè)務(wù)量 3/1/2023 17 電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展 RITT 趙慧玲 大型電信公司都在調(diào)整部署，削減傳統(tǒng)公用電信網(wǎng)部門，加強(qiáng)數(shù)據(jù)通信特別是 IP產(chǎn)品部門（例子：愛(ài)立信） 2).TCPIP將成為電信網(wǎng)的主導(dǎo)的上層通信語(yǔ)言 3).必須保證網(wǎng)絡(luò)端到端的服務(wù)質(zhì)量（ QoS），為此核心網(wǎng)部分必須引入 SDH+A