【正文】 arguments for supporting home ownership? Should it still be deemed a public good? No, say several economists and mentators. “Given the way US policy favours owning over renting,” writes Paul Krugman, 2021’s Nobel laureate in economics, “you can make a good case that America already has too many homeowners.” Edward Glaeser, an economist at Harvard University, talks about “the madness of encouraging Americans to bet everything on housing”. So far, policymakers are unmoved. In midFebruary Barack Obama proposed a $275 billion plan to support America’s housing market. Outside the AngloSaxon world Nicolas Sarkozy, who campaigned for the presidency to turn France into a propertyowning democracy, has expanded zerointerest housing loans for the poor. The main economic argument for home ownership is that, in the words of Thomas Shapiro of Brandeis University, “it is by far the single most important way families accumulate wealth”. This argument now looks as weak as house prices. In Britain prices have fallen 21% since their peak in October 2021. Prices in America have fallen more slowly but further, down 30% since their peak in mid2021 (see chart 1). This has reduced the total value of the country’s housing stock from over $22 trillion in 2021 to $19 trillion at the end of 2021. In the past few weeks, housing markets on both sides of the Atlantic have seen signs of life, but there is every chance that prices have further to fall before they finally reach their low. The collapse in house prices matters most directly to two overlapping groups: those who bought property at the peak of the market and now face “negative equity”。 it makes people more likely to vote in local elections and join clubs。 they may even have to pay more if the neighbourhood improves. Whether stability is such a good thing in a downturn, though, is a different matter. A decade ago Andrew Oswald of Warwick University argued that owning your own home makes you more reluctant to move, so labour markets tend to bee more rigid as home ownership increases. He claimed that increases in the level of home ownership (though not necessarily the level itself) are associated with rises in unemployment. Ireland, Greece and Spain all saw large increases in home ownership in the 1980s and 1990s, and had relatively high unemployment. America and Switzerland had stable ownership rates, and escaped the longterm rise in joblessness. His argument remains controversial. Critics point out that many things other than home ownership might prevent people from moving (children’s schools, friends and so on). Anyway, liquid housing markets should make it possible for people to move, if they want to. It is also possible that, even if people were trapped in distressed areas, jobs should move there to take advantage of the willingness of homeowners to accept lower wages. All that said, Mr Oswald’s arguments seem especially powerful at the moment. The recession in America is bearing down most heavily on two groups of states: Florida, California and Nevada, which had the largest housebuilding booms in the 1990s。 ” 吉米為他們提供了基本生活所需求，因此 “ 快樂、繁榮或會(huì)永存 ” 。這就是其常常受政府鼓勵(lì)的原因。在提供低利率房貸的美國(guó)兩大國(guó)有企業(yè)房利美和房地美破產(chǎn)后，違約加速。 補(bǔ)貼城堡 此番擴(kuò)大自有住宅的努力卻助推了經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)進(jìn)一步加深，而未實(shí)現(xiàn)其初衷。 ” 哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家愛德華 奧巴馬二月中旬提出一個(gè) 億美元支持美國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)的計(jì)劃。 夏皮羅的話說就是“ 目前為止 唯一最重要的家庭財(cái)富積累方式 ” 。這致使美國(guó)住宅總值由 2021 年的 22 萬億美元縮水至 2021 年末的 19 萬億。英國(guó)約有 3%的家庭處于這種狀態(tài)。據(jù)美國(guó)抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會(huì)數(shù)據(jù)， 2021 年第四季度過期還款比率為 22%，而普通房屋貸款僅為 5%。雖然借款人的收入與背景相似，但后者的違約率僅為前者的四分之一。然而，處于下滑趨勢(shì)的自有住房有一個(gè)很大的劣勢(shì)：絕大多數(shù)人可直接購(gòu)買股票，而買房則要有保證金（即無論如何都要占用一小筆資金）。 另一認(rèn)為自有住房有好處的論據(jù)則為：迄今為止房?jī)r(jià)下滑已使當(dāng)前大多數(shù)房主免遭絕對(duì)性損失。 費(fèi)爾德斯坦所指出的，當(dāng)房?jī)r(jià)上漲時(shí)，人們感覺比較富有，進(jìn)而會(huì)借更多，花更多。美國(guó)在 1997 至 2021 年間資產(chǎn)增值抵押借款額達(dá) 9 萬億美元 —— 相當(dāng)于 2021 年可支配收入的 90%以上。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的最新調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，自 1960年以來的 100 多次衰退中有 15%與房產(chǎn)泡沫有關(guān)，且縮水程度要比其它衰退嚴(yán)重而長(zhǎng)久。 此外，如果國(guó)家政策意在增加財(cái)富， 還可有 其它可行之策。（誠(chéng)然，這剔除了股票股息和估算租金資產(chǎn)，這對(duì)資產(chǎn)有利。如果你需要籌集資金的話，你不能賣掉一兩間屋子，而你卻能隨時(shí)拋掉一些股票。 ” 因?yàn)槿藗儽仨殐敻兜盅航杩?，這樣就增加了他們的家庭資本凈值，并較其它所為可存更多的錢。次級(jí)、付息及其它抵押借款工具允許人們?cè)诓活A(yù)付定金和資本凈值 未不斷增值的情況下購(gòu)買房屋。那些想擴(kuò)大自有住房的人認(rèn)為，自有住房可讓社會(huì)受益，因?yàn)槠浯龠M(jìn)社會(huì)安定，會(huì)有更多的遵紀(jì)守法社區(qū)；它使人們更愿意參與地區(qū)選舉并加入社團(tuán)；還可使未來的幾代人受益，因?yàn)槭聦?shí)證明，相較租房者的子女，自有住房房主的子女在校表現(xiàn)良好，幾無行為問題。更穩(wěn)定的地區(qū)，其居民更守法。自有住房者更想知道誰是他們的代表；更愿支持當(dāng)?shù)厥聵I(yè)或教師家長(zhǎng)會(huì)并（這里指美國(guó)）更愿去教堂。另一項(xiàng)研究顯示，自有住房者的孩子愿意從高等學(xué)府畢業(yè)的比率較租房者孩子高 25%，而且想上大學(xué)的比率更是超過兩倍。但正如有些人所表示，這是否是因?yàn)樽杂凶》恳蟾改笓碛袀鬟_(dá)給其子女的管理或理財(cái)才能？或是因?yàn)閾碛羞@些才能的人有助于其子女 求學(xué)及助他們 買房子？沒人知道答案。在美國(guó)，有大量租房者的地區(qū)趨于不穩(wěn)定，因其租期典型的短暫。 ” 總的來說，在人們所處的周圍環(huán)境中，自有住房還給予了他們一個(gè)重大利益。十年前華威大學(xué)的安德魯 美國(guó)和瑞典自有住房率保持穩(wěn)定，也就避免了長(zhǎng)期以來失業(yè)人數(shù)的增加。還有另一種可能：即使人們受困于失業(yè)人口比率高的地區(qū)，利用那些愿意接受較低工資的房主，工作可能會(huì)向這些地區(qū)變遷。因此勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)不如以往有彈性。存在的問題是如何權(quán)衡對(duì)自有住房帶來社會(huì)利益的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本。然而所發(fā)生的是，在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條期，喪失抵押品贖回權(quán)在高于某一水平的情況下造成了大量損失。 錢包的避難所 最后，且是反常地，十年來對(duì)擴(kuò)大自有住房的執(zhí)著實(shí)際上或許已降低了地區(qū)安定。美國(guó)的負(fù)攤還和英國(guó)的為租而買都是基于房屋是主要投資項(xiàng)目的認(rèn)知。過去幾年里他們所做的努力似乎已削弱了，雖然未摧毀，認(rèn)為自有住房可鼓勵(lì)行之的最佳論點(diǎn)，即它可提高人們的存款及 為大家創(chuàng)建更好的地區(qū)環(huán)境。 ”