【正文】 ligations in a construction contract. Russell and Zhai (1996) also used multiple regression analysis to predict construction panies’ failure and considered economic and financial variables together with their stochastic dynamicsAnother quantitative model based on financial ratios was developed by Goda (1999). The model objective was to develop standard financial ratios that reflect the performance of the construction industry in Egypt. These standards could be used to pare the performance of the Egyptian construction industry with the international one. According to this study, regression analysis had provided more reliable results than that produced using the supervised neural network.Previous models that were developed by Kangari et al. (1992) and Goda (1999) focused mainly on evaluating the performance using financial ratios without considering the effect of macroeconomic and industry related factors on the performance of construction panies. In addition, the model developed by Goda (1999) did not consider the effect of pany size on its performance. Therefore, the newly developed model in current research acmodated the effect of macroeconomics and industry related factors and pany size on the pany performance.Data Collection for Case StudyThe financial data for construction panies were collected in the time period 1992–2000, from the Authority of Money Market, Egyptian Government in the form of: annual balance sheets Values of Macroeconomic and IndustryRelated VariablesMacroeconomic variables Industryrelated variablesYear of record IFN IIR AWD AWS AWF19921993199491995199619971998511999200029And/or annual ine statements. Out of thousands of construction panies working in Egypt, only 122 panies are registered in the Egyptian money market. Approximately 415 financial statements from 9 consecutive years （1992–2000） were collected. Based upon the annual balance sheets and annual ine statements, financial ratios of the Egyptian construction panies were determined. Only six financial ratios were considered in the model developed: (1) current ratio (CR)。 (5) net profit to total assets ratio (NP/TA)。 however, it is for validation results, which shows more than 50% enhancement in the validation results. This also shows that the models developed are robust in representing construction sectors. In conclusion, based upon the results in Table 8, the models developed show acceptable results in general。財政，經(jīng)濟和工業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)收集從埃及建筑公司為九(1992 – 2000)連續(xù)兩年。當(dāng)前研究的最終結(jié)果是一種性能等級，它提供了一間建筑公司的表現(xiàn)。總協(xié)定的概念是開展業(yè)務(wù)的任何地方，任何時間，無論如何。這種評估被認為是對業(yè)主，股東和公司的籌資機構(gòu)至關(guān)重要，因為它清楚地提請本公司的正確位置。該模型將考慮經(jīng)濟和工業(yè)變化及其對公司的影響。（3）特殊行業(yè)。 背景 由建筑公司業(yè)績評價模型，制定了許多過去50年一直。在建筑行業(yè)層面模型是用來測量對建筑行業(yè)作為一個整體表現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟，政治和社會變化的影響。最重要的，可以在財務(wù)報表的趨勢分析方法區(qū)分失敗，失敗的公司非變量是：應(yīng)收賬款，欠擴口，應(yīng)付賬款，應(yīng)付票據(jù)，長期借款，股票和留存收益，銷售成本和總利潤（巴沙和哈薩尼1988。第一個統(tǒng)計評價模型來預(yù)測財務(wù)失敗是由比弗（1966）但他們不是針對建筑行業(yè)。許多研究之后比弗（1966年）的調(diào)查,多變量的技術(shù)，以區(qū)別于非倒閉的公司失敗。該Kangari等模型。 （1994年）為基礎(chǔ)的離散選擇模型，預(yù)測模型在滿足建筑合同的義務(wù)，一家建筑公司失敗的概率。這些標準可以用來比較埃及建造業(yè)的表現(xiàn)。此外，通過哥達開發(fā)的模型（1999年）并沒有考慮公司的規(guī)模對其性能的影響。大約從415 9（19922000年）連續(xù)兩年的財務(wù)報表收集。（3）固定資產(chǎn)凈值比率（英格蘭/凈重）。經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)均采自埃及外貿(mào)部（2003年）（埃及政府）公布的季度報告。規(guī)范財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)事實上，一些金融比率的計算方法在時間上有些則是在百分比計算。相對于整個行業(yè)的平均一家小公司的業(yè)績是不恰當(dāng)?shù)模驗榻鹑诮Y(jié)構(gòu)和小公司的特點是從歷史悠久的大公司（Kangari等人不同，1992年）。數(shù)學(xué)公式回歸分析是用來開發(fā)的（哥達1999）目前的模式，原因如下： ?對于所研究的問題，它的簡單性，可靠性和適用性。這些因素都派代表參加使用鈧，硒，硅，分別模型。在PI值可以由式。另一方面，公司可能在一年內(nèi)有兩個硒，硅和_Se = 100 = 100的最佳值和最差的SC值（鈧= 100_）（PI = 100）差值。表6，公司業(yè)績評分鈧，公司業(yè)績指數(shù)PI，并最終表現(xiàn)為G級，確定了連續(xù)9年。該公司看起來不錯，在90年代初，但是，G指數(shù)曲線開始下降，90年代中期。公司的行業(yè)，分別為從驗證數(shù)據(jù)集應(yīng)用效果相比，該模型應(yīng)用的建設(shè)的一個子集。這也表明，該模型開發(fā)的建筑部門在代表穩(wěn)健。 PI的發(fā)展并沒有提供該公司的業(yè)績相對其他行業(yè)內(nèi)的競爭對手進行適當(dāng)?shù)脑u價。此外，根據(jù)建設(shè)的需求或供應(yīng)量不僅沒有反映行業(yè)的表現(xiàn)評分（四）正確的估